Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin: offence minus defence EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. Win exp: how often a team with that margin wins (a 55% win was close to a coin flip). Win prob range: the lowest and highest in-game win chance.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND L | 7–42 | -25.0dog 10.0 | -0.49 → -0.43 | +0.20 → +0.14 | -0.57 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 3 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 42–7 | +25.0fav 10.0 | +0.20 → +0.19 | -0.49 → -0.49 | +0.68 | 100%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| BAL L | 10–36 | -23.0dog 3.0 | -0.50 → -0.53 | +0.04 → -0.07 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 3 / 2 |
| @ BUF W | 36–10 | +23.0fav 3.0 | +0.04 → +0.03 | -0.50 → -0.52 | +0.55 | 100%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 2 / 3 |
| CHI W | 34–17 | +20.0dog 3.0 | +0.18 → +0.27 | -0.18 → -0.19 | +0.46 | 99%raw 99% | 44% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SEA L | 17–34 | -20.0fav 3.0 | -0.18 → -0.18 | +0.18 → +0.14 | -0.32 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 56% | 1 / 1 |
| CLE L | 6–27 | -17.5dog 3.5 | -0.28 → -0.27 | +0.13 → +0.14 | -0.42 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 2 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 27–6 | +17.5fav 3.5 | +0.13 → +0.17 | -0.28 → -0.19 | +0.36 | 98%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| LAC L | 9–24 | -8.5dog 6.5 | -0.45 → -0.42 | -0.07 → -0.13 | -0.28 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 65% | 2 / 1 |
| @ LA W | 24–9 | +8.5fav 6.5 | -0.07 → -0.03 | -0.45 → -0.37 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 35% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| ATL L | 0–16 | -13.5dog 2.5 | -0.52 → -0.50 | -0.17 → -0.15 | -0.35 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 53% | 4 / 1 |
| @ TB W | 16–0 | +13.5fav 2.5 | -0.17 → -0.16 | -0.52 → -0.50 | +0.34 | 98%raw 99% | 47% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| PHI L | 10–27 | -11.0dog 6.0 | -0.19 → -0.26 | +0.01 → +0.01 | -0.27 | 5%raw 7% | 0% – 77% | 2 / 1 |
| @ WAS W | 27–10 | +11.0fav 6.0 | +0.01 → -0.00 | -0.19 → -0.16 | +0.16 | 86%raw 93% | 23% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| CAR L | 19–27 | -4.5dog 3.5 | -0.14 → -0.13 | +0.05 → +0.01 | -0.14 | 17%raw 7% | 1% – 68% | 2 / 2 |
| @ GB W | 27–19 | +4.5fav 3.5 | +0.05 → +0.02 | -0.14 → -0.14 | +0.15 | 85%raw 93% | 32% – 99% | 2 / 2 |
| KC L | 24–28 | -2.5dog 1.5 | +0.16 → +0.21 | +0.09 → +0.10 | +0.11 | 77%raw 72% | 24% – 92% | 0 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 28–24 | +2.5fav 1.5 | +0.09 → +0.13 | +0.16 → +0.13 | +0.01 | 51%raw 28% | 8% – 76% | 0 / 0 |
| MIN L | 15–19 | -1.0dog 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.15 | -0.03 → -0.10 | -0.05 | 36%raw 24% | 3% – 63% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DET W | 19–15 | +1.0fav 3.0 | -0.03 → +0.06 | -0.12 → -0.04 | +0.10 | 76%raw 76% | 37% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| ARI W | 33–30 | +10.0dog 7.0 | +0.05 → -0.05 | -0.05 → -0.12 | +0.07 | 69%raw 81% | 4% – 86% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DAL L | 30–33 | -10.0fav 7.0 | -0.05 → -0.11 | +0.05 → +0.07 | -0.19 | 11%raw 19% | 14% – 96% | 0 / 2 |
| NE W | 24–19 | -2.0fav 7.0 | +0.12 → +0.04 | -0.05 → -0.03 | +0.07 | 69%raw 91% | 13% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ MIA L | 19–24 | +2.0dog 7.0 | -0.05 → -0.03 | +0.12 → +0.07 | -0.09 | 26%raw 9% | 1% – 87% | 1 / 1 |
| TEN L | 36–43 | +6.5dog 13.5 | +0.13 → +0.09 | +0.16 → +0.14 | -0.05 | 38%raw 39% | 7% – 87% | 2 / 4 |
| @ CIN W | 43–36 | -6.5fav 13.5 | +0.16 → +0.11 | +0.13 → +0.23 | -0.12 | 20%raw 61% | 13% – 93% | 4 / 2 |
| LV W | 38–33 | +6.5dog 1.5 | +0.21 → +0.16 | +0.25 → +0.30 | -0.13 | 18%raw 37% | 15% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 33–38 | -6.5fav 1.5 | +0.25 → +0.23 | +0.21 → +0.29 | -0.06 | 33%raw 63% | 3% – 85% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | ARI | DAL | 21 | +0.557 | +0.698 | -0.141 | +11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.49 | +17.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | NYJ | 27 | +0.492 | +0.607 | -0.116 | +13.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.56 | +15.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 17 | +0.354 | +0.358 | -0.005 | +6.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 3 | -9.7 | +0.08 | +10.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DEN | 43 | +0.340 | +0.250 | +0.089 | +14.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.6 | +0.25 | +7.8 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | SEA | 35 | +0.319 | +0.219 | +0.100 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.30 | +3.0 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | LV | 34 | +0.291 | +0.345 | -0.054 | +9.9 | 1 / 0 | -1.6 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.25 | +10.8 |
| Drake Maye | NE | MIA | 23 | +0.260 | +0.380 | -0.119 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.23 | +14.0 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | KC | 34 | +0.250 | +0.216 | +0.034 | +8.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.52 | -3.6 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | TEN | 52 | +0.249 | +0.327 | -0.078 | +13.0 | 3 / 0 | -10.4 | 3 | -5.9 | +1.00 | +16.9 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CAR | 41 | +0.242 | +0.286 | -0.045 | +9.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +11.7 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | CIN | 43 | +0.155 | +0.203 | -0.048 | +6.7 | 0 / 1 | -6.3 | 2 | -8.0 | -0.20 | -1.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | BAL | 36 | +0.140 | +0.178 | -0.038 | +5.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.09 | -1.4 |
| Malik Willis | MIA | NE | 38 | +0.116 | +0.080 | +0.035 | +4.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 5 | -6.2 | -0.09 | +2.3 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | PHI | 31 | +0.100 | +0.079 | +0.021 | +3.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.11 | -1.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 29 | -0.008 | -0.144 | +0.136 | -0.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 4 | -6.7 | +0.05 | +2.1 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | ARI | 33 | -0.008 | +0.098 | -0.107 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.2 | -0.18 | -5.0 |
| Kyler Murray | MIN | DET | 33 | -0.076 | -0.050 | -0.026 | -2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.12 | -1.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | CLE | 25 | -0.083 | -0.146 | +0.063 | -2.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.05 | -11.0 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | PIT | 47 | -0.128 | -0.136 | +0.008 | -6.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 8 | -14.6 | -0.22 | +3.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | LAC | 26 | -0.128 | -0.186 | +0.058 | -3.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.06 | -9.0 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | CHI | 38 | -0.167 | -0.171 | +0.004 | -6.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 3 | -2.2 | -0.09 | -16.9 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | GB | 47 | -0.169 | -0.162 | -0.007 | -7.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 6 | -6.2 | -0.32 | -6.0 |
| Tanner McKee | PHI | WAS | 39 | -0.370 | -0.272 | -0.098 | -14.4 | 1 / 1 | -6.8 | 5 | -10.1 | -0.27 | +2.9 |
| Joe Fagnano | BAL | BUF | 24 | -0.420 | -0.431 | +0.010 | -10.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.28 | -16.4 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | JAX | 31 | -0.451 | -0.537 | +0.086 | -14.0 | 2 / 0 | -15.3 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.18 | -0.8 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LA | 33 | -0.469 | -0.490 | +0.021 | -15.5 | 2 / 0 | -13.8 | 2 | -4.2 | -0.23 | +4.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | DAL | 27 | -0.670 | -0.529 | -0.141 | -18.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 4 | -7.1 | -0.40 | -13.1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | TB | 24 | -0.989 | -1.002 | +0.013 | -23.7 | 4 / 0 | -16.7 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.36 | -31.3 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.