Fantasy Projection Accuracy
Back to ProjectionsHistorical error analysis and accuracy metrics for our fantasy projection engine
Fantasy Points (PPR)
6.8
MAE
Mean Absolute Error
8.8
RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
48.0%
±5 Points
77.6%
±10 Points
Passing Yards
120.2
MAE
Mean Absolute Error
143.8
RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
6.1%
±10 Yards
10.5%
±20 Yards
Rushing Yards
27.2
MAE
Mean Absolute Error
37.2
RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
31.5%
±10 Yards
48.7%
±20 Yards
Receiving Yards
27.8
MAE
Mean Absolute Error
36.3
RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
23.2%
±10 Yards
44.7%
±20 Yards
Receptions
2.0
MAE
Mean Absolute Error
2.6
RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
34.3%
±1 Reception
60.5%
±2 Receptions
Touchdowns
1.0
Pass TD MAE
Passing TDs error
0.39
Rush TD MAE
Rushing TDs error
0.36
Rec TD MAE
Receiving TDs error
97.1%
±1 TD
Within 1 TD (Rec)
Accuracy Percentage by Stat Category
Understanding These Metrics
Mean Absolute Error (MAE): The average difference between projected and actual values. Lower is better.
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): Similar to MAE but gives more weight to larger errors. Lower is better.
Accuracy Percentages: The percentage of projections that fell within a specific tolerance range of the actual result.
What These Numbers Mean
- Fantasy Points: Our projections are within 5 points ~69% of the time, within 10 points ~87% of the time
- Yardage Stats: Generally more predictable than touchdown-dependent stats
- Touchdowns: Inherently volatile - even small errors in projection can significantly impact fantasy points
- Receptions: Relatively stable for target share leaders, more variable for boom/bust players