Fantasy Projection Accuracy

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Historical error analysis and accuracy metrics for our fantasy projection engine

Actuals last graded 2026-08-25 (0 days ago), latest season 2025.

Fantasy Points (PPR)

5.1 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
6.8 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
60.9% ±5 Points
86.8% ±10 Points

Passing Yards

65.6 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
83.5 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
9.1% ±10 Yards
18.1% ±20 Yards

Rushing Yards

22.8 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
29.6 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
29.6% ±10 Yards
55.9% ±20 Yards

Receiving Yards

25.0 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
33.5 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
28.2% ±10 Yards
52.0% ±20 Yards

Receptions

1.6 MAE
Mean Absolute Error
2.1 RMSE
Root Mean Square Error
41.3% ±1 Reception
68.9% ±2 Receptions

Touchdowns

0.97 Pass TD MAE
Passing TDs error
0.38 Rush TD MAE
Rushing TDs error
0.35 Rec TD MAE
Receiving TDs error
96.9% ±1 TD
Within 1 TD (Rec)
Accuracy Percentage by Stat Category
First Quarter & First Half Accuracy

There is no segment model. These take the full-game projection and scale it by the stat's empirical segment share (passing Q1 21.4%, 1H 50.0%; rushing 24.4% / 49.2%; receiving 21.4% / 50.0%, measured over 2021–25). That makes this the baseline any real Q1/1H model has to beat, not a model itself.

Read Skill R², not MAE. Raw MAE shrinks with the segment simply because the numbers are smaller, which makes the worst segment look like the best. Skill R² compares the projection to always guessing the average: 0 or below means no skill. All covers every projected player; Played drops those who recorded nothing — the gap between them is the cost of projecting players who never take the field.

Stat Pos Segment Sample n Norm. MAE Skill R² Bias
Passing QB Full game All 1,876 0.28 +0.162 1.02×
Passing QB Full game Played 1,839 0.27 +0.118 1.01×
Passing QB 1st half All 1,876 0.36 +0.147 1.00×
Passing QB 1st half Played 1,797 0.33 +0.066 0.97×
Passing QB 1st quarter All 1,876 0.50 +0.081 1.01×
Passing QB 1st quarter Played 1,761 0.46 +0.019 0.96×
Receiving RB Full game All 3,968 0.84 +0.076 0.92×
Receiving RB Full game Played 2,759 0.64 -0.105 0.72×
Receiving RB 1st half All 3,968 1.04 +0.059 0.93×
Receiving RB 1st half Played 2,046 0.67 -0.247 0.57×
Receiving RB 1st quarter All 3,968 1.33 +0.029 0.92×
Receiving RB 1st quarter Played 1,219 0.73 -0.465 0.35×
Receiving TE Full game All 3,576 0.66 +0.225 1.03×
Receiving TE Full game Played 3,043 0.56 +0.164 0.93×
Receiving TE 1st half All 3,576 0.83 +0.171 1.01×
Receiving TE 1st half Played 2,375 0.58 +0.012 0.76×
Receiving TE 1st quarter All 3,576 1.16 +0.091 1.00×
Receiving TE 1st quarter Played 1,456 0.65 -0.352 0.50×
Receiving WR Full game All 6,284 0.59 +0.232 1.03×
Receiving WR Full game Played 5,567 0.52 +0.163 0.96×
Receiving WR 1st half All 6,284 0.75 +0.176 1.02×
Receiving WR 1st half Played 4,662 0.57 +0.047 0.84×
Receiving WR 1st quarter All 6,284 1.05 +0.100 1.03×
Receiving WR 1st quarter Played 3,062 0.61 -0.225 0.59×
Rushing QB Full game All 1,878 0.74 +0.321 1.05×
Rushing QB Full game Played 1,455 0.57 +0.251 0.90×
Rushing QB 1st half All 1,878 0.90 +0.214 1.01×
Rushing QB 1st half Played 1,177 0.62 +0.066 0.74×
Rushing QB 1st quarter All 1,878 1.24 +0.102 1.15×
Rushing QB 1st quarter Played 728 0.65 -0.155 0.56×
Rushing RB Full game All 3,990 0.57 +0.257 0.96×
Rushing RB Full game Played 3,577 0.53 +0.180 0.92×
Rushing RB 1st half All 3,990 0.66 +0.220 0.95×
Rushing RB 1st half Played 3,276 0.57 +0.098 0.87×
Rushing RB 1st quarter All 3,990 0.81 +0.169 0.94×
Rushing RB 1st quarter Played 2,717 0.62 -0.028 0.75×

Every position carries positive skill, and it degrades smoothly rather than collapsing: first half keeps roughly 75–90% of full-game skill, first quarter 40–65%. So scaling by the segment share is a legitimate baseline — a dedicated 1H model has a real bar to clear, and a Q1 model has a lower one on much noisier ground. Built 2026-08-25T01:01:40+00:00.

Understanding These Metrics

Mean Absolute Error (MAE): The average difference between projected and actual values. Lower is better.

Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): Similar to MAE but gives more weight to larger errors. Lower is better.

Accuracy Percentages: The percentage of projections that fell within a specific tolerance range of the actual result.

What These Numbers Mean

  • Fantasy Points: Our projections are within 5 points ~69% of the time, within 10 points ~87% of the time
  • Yardage Stats: Generally more predictable than touchdown-dependent stats
  • Touchdowns: Inherently volatile - even small errors in projection can significantly impact fantasy points
  • Receptions: Relatively stable for target share leaders, more variable for boom/bust players
Important Context
Fantasy football projection accuracy is inherently limited by the unpredictable nature of the sport. Injuries, weather, game script changes, and coaching decisions all impact real-world performance. These metrics represent historical performance and should be used as guidelines, not guarantees. The best projection systems typically achieve 55-65% accuracy within reasonable tolerance ranges.