NCAAB model performance
Stratified by power vs mid-major — testing the small-conference edge hypothesis
Hypothesis under test: mid-major lines may be sloppier (less professional handicapping)
and yield more model accuracy (and, if odds are weak, more ROI). Tracking accuracy by tier is one
way to spot it; ROI requires forward odds capture via the EV scanner.
All games
83.2%
376 settled
Power vs Power
33.3%
9 settled
Mid-major vs Mid-major
81.8%
209 settled
By home conference
Sample sizes vary — small-n rows are noisy, so wait for n > 50 before reading deeply.
| Conference | Tier | n | ML Accuracy | Avg Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | Power | 31 | 87.1% | 70.9% |
| Big Ten | Power | 29 | 86.2% | 70.8% |
| Big 12 | Power | 29 | 82.8% | 69.3% |
| SEC | Power | 28 | 92.9% | 76.0% |
| Sun Belt | Mid-major | 20 | 75.0% | 72.3% |
| Big East | Power | 18 | 83.3% | 70.9% |
| Atlantic 10 | Mid-major | 15 | 73.3% | 69.8% |
| American | Power | 15 | 80.0% | 75.2% |
| WCC | Mid-major | 14 | 71.4% | 74.9% |
| MAAC | Mid-major | 13 | 38.5% | 71.1% |
| C-USA | Mid-major | 12 | 91.7% | 85.4% |
| MVC | Mid-major | 12 | 91.7% | 84.2% |
| Pac-12 | Power | 12 | 83.3% | 70.7% |
| Mountain West | Mid-major | 12 | 91.7% | 82.8% |
| Ivy | Mid-major | 10 | 60.0% | 75.1% |
| OVC | Mid-major | 9 | 88.9% | 85.4% |
| SWAC | Mid-major | 9 | 66.7% | 83.8% |
| Big West | Mid-major | 9 | 88.9% | 89.3% |
| CAA | Mid-major | 8 | 87.5% | 86.8% |
| Southland | Mid-major | 8 | 87.5% | 84.0% |
| SoCon | Mid-major | 7 | 100.0% | 91.0% |
| WAC | Mid-major | 7 | 100.0% | 88.6% |
| Big Sky | Mid-major | 7 | 100.0% | 88.1% |
| Big South | Mid-major | 7 | 85.7% | 81.3% |
| MEAC | Mid-major | 6 | 100.0% | 86.8% |
| Horizon | Mid-major | 6 | 100.0% | 82.7% |
| Summit | Mid-major | 6 | 66.7% | 81.9% |
| Patriot | Mid-major | 5 | 100.0% | 79.9% |
| MAC | Mid-major | 4 | 75.0% | 81.2% |
| A-Sun | Mid-major | 4 | 100.0% | 81.2% |
| America East | Mid-major | 3 | 66.7% | 81.4% |
| NEC | Mid-major | 1 | 100.0% | 91.0% |
Recent settled predictions
| Date | Game | Conf | Predicted | Actual | Pick | ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | BRCF @ SDST | Summit | 68–73 | 49–71 | SDST (81%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | MIDW @ EKU | WAC | 63–112 | 68–106 | EKU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | UTA @ PORT | WCC | 71–74 | 89–85 | PORT (74%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | BTHS @ HAW | Mountain West | 60–120 | 44–116 | HAW (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | RWC @ KENT | MAC | 63–105 | 50–102 | KENT (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | RMU @ UIC | MVC | 71–78 | 56–79 | UIC (75%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | TRST @ MOST | C-USA | 67–74 | 62–79 | MOST (83%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | NBRY @ COFC | CAA | 55–85 | 66–112 | COFC (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | ERSK @ CIT | SoCon | 61–83 | 57–100 | CIT (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | NHVN @ RUTG | Big Ten | 67–69 | 54–81 | RUTG (77%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | VAL @ PUR | Big Ten | 72–77 | 83–80 | PUR (78%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | MUW @ AAMU | SWAC | 54–101 | 47–103 | AAMU (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | AMCC @ UL | Sun Belt | 70–67 | 67–60 | AMCC (55%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | TXLU @ SFA | Southland | 57–111 | 32–89 | SFA (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | FAU @ WRST | Horizon | 72–75 | 71–97 | WRST (74%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | IDHO @ CSU | Pac-12 | 71–73 | 67–78 | CSU (59%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | UWF @ FIU | C-USA | 90–70 | 75–85 | UWF (78%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | UNF @ UCLA | Big Ten | 67–77 | 63–114 | UCLA (84%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | NCF @ FGCU | A-Sun | 57–91 | 67–89 | FGCU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | SCST @ UPST | Big South | 72–73 | 78–70 | UPST (64%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | IDST @ WYO | Mountain West | 67–77 | 62–93 | WYO (86%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | TXSO @ LSU | SEC | 80–81 | 51–92 | LSU (69%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | JMU @ UK | SEC | 75–77 | 80–89 | UK (66%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | STET @ WVU | Big 12 | 69–79 | 53–91 | WVU (87%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | YALE @ UCF | Big 12 | 80–75 | 75–87 | UCF (51%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | OMA @ BYU | Big 12 | 73–80 | 67–108 | BYU (64%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | UNCO @ ASU | Big 12 | 79–76 | 63–90 | UNCO (55%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | OAK @ STAN | ACC | 73–82 | 63–81 | STAN (81%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | WAG @ MIA | ACC | 68–75 | 57–83 | MIA (69%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | HC @ VILL | Big East | 72–77 | 66–95 | VILL (74%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | UMDB @ CLE | Horizon | 76–71 | 79–103 | CLE (63%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | UNCG @ ELON | CAA | 75–78 | 65–74 | UNCG (55%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | NDSU @ SF | WCC | 75–73 | 70–79 | NDSU (52%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | SIU @ KC | Summit | 75–64 | 93–100 | SIU (68%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | L-MD @ MSM | MAAC | 65–73 | 57–68 | MSM (77%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | DEL @ WIS | Big Ten | 72–81 | 64–73 | WIS (85%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | NKU @ TA&M | SEC | 79–83 | 67–104 | TA&M (76%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | STBK @ NU | Big Ten | 69–71 | 65–78 | NU (66%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | EIU @ IOWA | Big Ten | 67–69 | 47–91 | IOWA (75%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | EWU @ ORE | Big Ten | 72–71 | 71–98 | ORE (51%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | CONN @ MICH | Big Ten | 67–80 | 85–77 | MICH (84%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | NE @ UVA | ACC | 70–87 | 72–97 | UVA (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | CBU @ ORST | Pac-12 | 74–69 | 68–96 | ORST (59%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | GASO @ GT | ACC | 77–79 | 83–95 | GASO (55%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | COPP @ GMU | Atlantic 10 | 59–76 | 51–68 | GMU (87%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | SOU @ TCU | Big 12 | 71–78 | 54–106 | TCU (83%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | QUC @ OKST | Big 12 | 88–88 | 68–118 | OKST (60%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | NICH @ UAB | American | 69–69 | 63–70 | UAB (70%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | ETSU @ NCSU | ACC | 79–78 | 63–77 | NCSU (62%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | APSU @ KENN | C-USA | 79–84 | 69–71 | KENN (61%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | CARK @ MISS | SEC | 78–80 | 60–92 | MISS (52%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | LNCA @ LMU | WCC | 63–108 | 50–102 | LMU (88%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | TAR @ USD | WCC | 69–70 | 90–96 | USD (66%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | YSU @ OSU | Big Ten | 70–75 | 65–89 | OSU (68%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | STMN @ MINN | Big Ten | 74–70 | 62–76 | STMN (58%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | WOF @ UNC | ACC | 74–86 | 70–109 | UNC (78%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | AMER @ CLEM | ACC | 69–73 | 73–82 | CLEM (65%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | BU @ BRWN | Ivy | 73–74 | 72–67 | BRWN (50%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | SLU @ MIZ | SEC | 76–77 | 90–84 | MIZ (52%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | ALMA @ CMU | MAC | 56–100 | 50–93 | CMU (90%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | INST @ BALL | MAC | 68–72 | 69–66 | BALL (69%) | L |
| 2026-11-06 | CSUN @ KSU | Big 12 | 81–80 | 78–95 | KSU (51%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | MTSU @ KU | Big 12 | 73–79 | 45–89 | KU (68%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | USM @ ISU | Big 12 | 71–79 | 57–83 | ISU (79%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | UAPB @ BAY | Big 12 | 72–78 | 53–109 | BAY (81%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | TROY @ FSU | ACC | 74–75 | 68–91 | FSU (65%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | MASS @ BC | ACC | 73–74 | 55–71 | BC (62%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | EMU @ XAV | Big East | 75–79 | 53–76 | XAV (79%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | DETM @ MARQ | Big East | 73–71 | 32–93 | MARQ (63%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | MVSU @ OU | SEC | 67–80 | 57–84 | OU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | PRES @ UGA | SEC | 79–82 | 77–91 | UGA (79%) | W |
| 2026-11-06 | ARST @ ALA | SEC | 79–88 | 86–101 | ALA (64%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | FVSU @ FAMU | SWAC | 56–83 | 75–70 | FAMU (91%) | L |
| 2026-11-05 | UNTN @ UNA | WAC | 71–83 | 66–76 | UNA (79%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | LSIU @ PEPP | WCC | 61–98 | 66–106 | PEPP (90%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | HWPU @ TXST | Pac-12 | 56–109 | 66–135 | TXST (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | CBMO @ LIN | OVC | 69–76 | 46–120 | LIN (83%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | KALC @ WMU | MAC | 71–69 | 52–99 | WMU (75%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | KWC @ WKU | C-USA | 69–93 | 48–82 | WKU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | UAM @ LT | Sun Belt | 66–72 | 17–76 | LT (81%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | SOVA @ RICH | Atlantic 10 | 55–93 | 46–107 | RICH (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | CNSU @ ILST | MVC | 59–91 | 55–100 | ILST (92%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | JXST @ USA | Sun Belt | 74–75 | 80–83 | USA (58%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | CBS @ PV | SWAC | 55–102 | 90–103 | PV (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | GRCU @ SUU | Big Sky | 65–104 | 53–97 | SUU (90%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | GAST @ CLT | American | 74–76 | 67–77 | CLT (71%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | TOL @ MSU | Big Ten | 72–82 | 61–91 | MSU (80%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | HOW @ ALCN | SWAC | 82–68 | 94–83 | HOW (78%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | MCN @ UNT | American | 73–75 | 67–77 | UNT (55%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | KNGS @ LAF | Patriot | 71–71 | 67–104 | LAF (73%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | HOF @ PRIN | Ivy | 72–68 | 58–60 | HOF (62%) | L |
| 2026-11-05 | COR @ LEH | Patriot | 75–75 | 64–71 | LEH (65%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | OLDW @ COLU | Ivy | 57–97 | 58–120 | COLU (91%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | GB @ CIN | Big 12 | 68–72 | 64–81 | CIN (62%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | TOW @ UTAH | Big 12 | 74–67 | 57–67 | TOW (58%) | L |
| 2026-11-05 | ME @ SHU | MAAC | 66–75 | 74–72 | SHU (88%) | L |
| 2026-11-05 | UNH @ RID | MAAC | 70–67 | 66–55 | RID (63%) | L |
| 2026-11-05 | BRY @ QUIN | MAAC | 66–73 | 56–66 | QUIN (77%) | W |
| 2026-11-05 | UML @ MRMK | MAAC | 70–71 | 71–61 | MRMK (60%) | L |
| 2026-11-05 | UALB @ MAN | MAAC | 68–68 | 72–68 | MAN (60%) | L |
Model: XGBoost on v2 features, 2-season training window. Backtest: 67.7% ML accuracy / Brier 0.206. Measured against real closing lines (n=935) the market wins: 66.95% model vs 67.70% market, Brier gap CI [0.016, 0.037] excluding zero, ROI −6.2% to −8.9% at every threshold. Verdict: informational only.