EPA splits

Team EPA (expected points added) per play, by situation. On defense it is EPA allowed, so lower is better. Colors compare each team with the league in the same situation. Small numbers are plays; faded cells have fewer than 30.

Seasons
to Weeks to
2026 through week 9
Games Regular seasonPlayoffsBoth
EPA Raw Opponent-adjusted
Plays AllDropbacksDesigned runs
Side Offense Defense
Split SettingHome / awayRest daysWeatherIndoors / outdoorsTemperature (outdoors)Wind (outdoors)Rain or snow (outdoors)Game stateScoreWin probabilityQuarterTwo-minuteSituationDown3rd-down distanceField positionStyleFormationTempo

Home / away — offense

Click a column to sort; hover a cell for success rate and standard error. Click a team for every split at once.

TeamAll plays HomeAwayNeutral site
League +0.00615707 +0.0017472+0.0087460+0.038775
BUF +0.175455 +0.127273+0.246182—
SF +0.153415 +0.265228-0.075122+0.19065
DAL +0.120540 +0.055187+0.167280+0.10473
DET +0.119478 +0.025276+0.246202—
CIN +0.118443 +0.072212+0.160231—
JAX +0.115483 +0.223169+0.042173+0.076141
KC +0.113437 +0.134205+0.096232—
CHI +0.066590 +0.070301+0.063289—
NE +0.057508 +0.131192+0.012316—
LA +0.047546 +0.109250+0.050236-0.22660
LV +0.046525 +0.017278+0.079247—
NYJ +0.041483 +0.039262+0.043221—
HOU +0.031452 -0.026271+0.036118+0.26563
NYG +0.027475 +0.037264+0.016211—
CAR +0.019484 +0.068197-0.015287—
GB +0.010518 +0.086267-0.071251—
WAS -0.005454 +0.026186+0.035204-0.22664
ARI -0.007576 -0.092203+0.039373—
PIT -0.011517 +0.058240-0.122215+0.10662
BAL -0.018550 -0.042242-0.051244+0.19664
DEN -0.018480 +0.038243-0.075237—
NO -0.031475 -0.128193+0.029225+0.06157
MIA -0.047418 -0.069201-0.026217—
SEA -0.050520 -0.087301+0.000219—
CLE -0.067507 -0.005192-0.105315—
TEN -0.083471 -0.141229-0.028242—
ATL -0.087485 -0.170249+0.000236—
TB -0.091516 -0.200329+0.100187—
PHI -0.096501 -0.080244-0.111195-0.11262
MIN -0.099422 -0.025193-0.161229—
IND -0.111527 -0.137207-0.097256-0.08664
LAC -0.231456 -0.287188-0.191268—
How much to trust a split A play is a dropback (sacks and scrambles included) or a designed run. EPA swings about ±1.4 points a play, so 100 plays carry about ±0.14 of luck, and a season split of a few hundred plays still moves ±0.07–0.10 by chance. Situations also track team quality: good offenses spend more time leading, and teams trailing late face soft defenses. A split describes what happened until it holds across seasons. Source: nflverse play-by-play, rebuilt daily.