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NFL Watchlist

Games matching a pattern that might be an edge but isn't proven. Each flag freezes at kickoff and is graded at the closing line, so the live record is a clean forward test.

passed Passed pre-registered testprereg Pre-registered, pendinghunch Hunch: never pre-registered

Sides need 52.4% at −110 to break even. Times are Eastern. Updated Sat 1:20 PM.

This week

NYG at PHI Sun 1:00 PM

Under

passed Wind unders

17.3 mph forecast at KPHL · run Sat 7:00 AM Provisional: the forecast that counts is the last run 6 h or more before kickoff.

Low-line receptions Overs: 8 qualifying props right now (list).
Wong teaser legs: 0 this week on Wong Teasers.

Patterns

passed Wind unders

Under when the GFS MOS forecast (latest run at least 6 h before kickoff) is 15+ mph at kickoff. Outdoor or open-roof US stadiums.

Past: 226-174 (56.5%), ROI +9.7% (95% CI +0.3 to +19.0), n=406, 2006-25. +10.3% / +9.0% by half.
Live: 0–1, -1.00u

The idea came from a screen of the same games, so this is still a forward test.

prereg Low-line receptions Overs

Receptions lines of 1.5 or 2.5 where some book prices a side at 65%+: the Over at the best closing price.

Past: Over won 52.8% vs fair 44.0%, ROI +15.9% ± 8.2, n=248 (2026 weeks 1-8).
Live: 14–23, ROI -20.3% over 12 games (interim)

Pre-registered: graded once after week 18; needs about +12% to pass. Record below is interim.

hunch Fade a backup QB, final week

Final regular-season week: bet against a team whose projected starter is not the QB who started most of its games (skipped when both teams swap).

Past: 56.7% ± 4.5 ATS, n=120, 2006-25 (54.4% / 58.7% by half), usual starter counted from earlier games only.
Live: No graded flags yet

Closing lines already price the QB news; z = 1.1 vs break-even.

hunch Back an eliminated team, final week

Final regular-season week: a team at .400 or worse vs an opponent at .450-.650: bet the worse team ATS.

Past: 57.5% ± 4.6 ATS, n=80, 2006-25 (54.5% / 61.1% by half).
Live: No graded flags yet

Weakest: the test was the opposite bet (fade the dead team) and lost; this is the reversal.

hunch West Coast team at night vs an East Coast team

Kickoff 8 pm ET or later, Pacific-time team vs Eastern-time team (either venue, no neutral sites): bet the Pacific team ATS.

Past: 57.8% ± 5.1 ATS, n=90, 2006-25 (62.1% / 55.7% by half).
Live: No graded flags yet

From the sleep-research body-clock idea; only ~4 games a season.

Wind forecasts

Outdoor games, GFS MOS sustained wind at the station nearest the stadium, at the forecast hour nearest kickoff. Flags at 15+ mph.

Game	Wind	Total	Forecast
NYG at PHISun 1:00 PM · provisional	17 mph	38.5	KPHL, run Sat 7:00 AM
LA at WASSun 1:00 PM · provisional	10 mph	47.5	KADW, run Sat 7:00 AM
DET at MIASun 1:00 PM · provisional	8 mph	49.5	KOPF, run Sat 7:00 AM
NYJ at KCSun 1:00 PM · provisional	7 mph	47.5	KMKC, run Sat 7:00 AM
DEN at CARSun 1:00 PM · provisional	6 mph	44.5	KCLT, run Sat 7:00 AM

Receptions props that qualify now

Latest two-sided prices. The pre-registered bet uses each book's last price in the 6 hours before kickoff, so this list can change.

Player	Line	Over	Fair	Books
Caleb DouglasLions at Dolphins · Sun 1:00 PM	2.5	-186	62%	2
Cyrus AllenJets at Chiefs · Sun 1:00 PM	1.5	+154	38%	4
Darnell MooneyGiants at Eagles · Sun 1:00 PM	1.5	+182	34%	4
Emmett JohnsonJets at Chiefs · Sun 1:00 PM	2.5	+155	36%	2
Evan EngramBroncos at Panthers · Sun 1:00 PM	2.5	+148	37%	2
Tommy TrembleBroncos at Panthers · Sun 1:00 PM	2.5	+154	37%	2
Troy FranklinBroncos at Panthers · Sun 1:00 PM	1.5	+148	38%	4
Elijah HigginsCardinals at Seahawks · Sun 4:25 PM	2.5	+150	37%	3

Recent graded flags

Game	Bet	Result
IND at JAX Wk 8 · Wind unders	Under 45.5	Loss

No pattern here has a proven edge. Hunches came from screening about 25 rules on 2006–25 history, so a few should look this good by chance. Rules and past records: backtests/nfl_schedule_edges/FINDINGS.md, backtests/wind_unders/FINDINGS.md, backtests/nfl_receptions_low_line/PREREG.md.