Model Accuracy Dashboard

Unified view of prediction accuracy for both fantasy projections and game betting

Game-prediction metrics on this page are a Backtest (2021–2024 seasons, generated 2026-01-18) — a retrodiction generated after results were known, not a live record.
Win Prediction Accuracy
53.9%
1087 games analyzed (backtest)
Against The Spread
49.3%
Beat the line
Fantasy Pts MAE
Average error in PPR
Projection Correlation
Pred vs Actual r-value

Game Prediction Accuracy

Data Source Context
Live Predictions
0
Made before game kickoff
Backtest Predictions
4316
Generated after game (historical analysis)
Spread: 48.0% O/U: 46.4%

Note: All current predictions are from backtesting (historical analysis). Live prediction tracking begins when predictions are generated before game kickoff.

Moneyline (Win/Loss)

53.9% Correct Predictions
586 Correct
1087 Total
56.5% High Conf (70%+)
-7.4% ROI (backtest)

Spread (ATS)

49.3% ATS Accuracy
11.6 MAE (pts)
14.8 RMSE
518 ATS Wins
-4.9% ROI (backtest)

Total (Over/Under)

50.8% O/U Accuracy
11.7 MAE (pts)
15.0 RMSE
544 O/U Wins
-2.1% ROI (backtest)

Seasonal Performance

Season Games Win Accuracy Spread Error Total Error ROI
2021 272 57.0%
2022 271 55.7%
2023 272 51.1%
2024 272 51.8%

Fantasy Projection Accuracy

No Fantasy Accuracy Data Yet

Fantasy projection accuracy tracking requires storing projections before games and comparing to actuals after.

Use the admin actions below to start tracking accuracy for upcoming weeks.

Admin Actions

Note: Projections should be stored before games each week. Actuals can be fetched after games complete.

Player Props Performance

Overall Record

62.7% Win Rate (excl. pushes)
1773 Wins
1054 Losses
1199 Pushes
4026 Total Bets

Return on Investment

+19.8% Flat Betting ROI
0.3% Avg Edge
52.4% Breakeven
10.3% Edge vs BE
-110 Typical Odds

Best Stat Types

Receptions 65.7% (245-128)
Receiving Yards 62.7% (901-536)
Passing Yards 62.3% (225-136)
Rushing Yards 61.3% (402-254)

Weekly Performance

Week Wins Losses Win Rate ROI
Week 1 244 165 59.7% +13.9%
Week 2 219 95 69.7% +33.2%
Week 3 180 125 59.0% +12.7%
Week 4 188 95 66.4% +26.9%
Week 5 77 36 68.1% +30.2%
Week 6 99 43 69.7% +33.2%
Week 7 78 47 62.4% +19.2%
Week 8 64 37 63.4% +21.0%
Week 9 73 33 68.9% +31.5%
Week 10 72 37 66.1% +26.2%
Week 11 69 54 56.1% +7.1%
Week 12 72 43 62.6% +19.6%
Week 13 86 57 60.1% +14.9%
Week 14 60 51 54.1% +3.2%
Week 15 84 55 60.4% +15.4%
Week 16 73 59 55.3% +5.6%
Week 17 8 15 34.8% -33.6%
Week 20 27 7 79.4% +51.7%
View Current Props Full Props History