Pick'em Mode
Week 17Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
63
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
46.3%
Percentage
7-9
Record
0
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
 PHI
@
 BUF
|
PHI -11.5
Strong favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
13 - 12
|
| 15 |
 SEA
@
 CAR
|
CAR -10.0
Strong favorite
|
Correct
+15 pts
27 - 10
|
| 14 |
 LA
@
 ATL
|
ATL -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
24 - 27
|
| 13 |
 ARI
@
 CIN
|
ARI -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Correct
+13 pts
14 - 37
|
| 12 |
 NE
@
 NYJ
|
NYJ -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Correct
+12 pts
42 - 10
|
| 11 |
 TB
@
 MIA
|
MIA -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
17 - 20
|
| 10 |
 CHI
@
 SF
|
CHI -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+10 pts
38 - 42
|
| 9 |
 DEN
@
 KC
|
DEN -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 13
|
| 8 |
 NYG
@
 LV
|
LV -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Correct
+8 pts
34 - 10
|
| 7 |
 HOU
@
 LAC
|
HOU -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
20 - 16
|
| 6 |
 BAL
@
 GB
|
BAL -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
41 - 24
|
| 5 |
 PIT
@
 CLE
|
CLE -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Wrong
+0 pts
6 - 13
|
| 4 |
 DAL
@
 WAS
|
WAS -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+4 pts
30 - 23
|
| 3 |
 DET
@
 MIN
|
MIN -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
10 - 23
|
| 2 |
 JAX
@
 IND
|
JAX -1.5
Toss-up
|
Wrong
+0 pts
23 - 17
|
| 1 |
 NO
@
 TEN
|
TEN -1.5
Toss-up
|
Correct
+1 pts
34 - 26
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.