Model Accuracy Dashboard

Unified view of prediction accuracy for both fantasy projections and game betting

Game-prediction metrics on this page are a Backtest (2021–2024 seasons, generated 2026-01-18) — a retrodiction generated after results were known, not a live record.

Season:

Win Prediction Accuracy

53.9%

1087 games analyzed (backtest)

Against The Spread

49.3%

Beat the line

Fantasy Pts MAE

5.31

Average error in PPR

Projection Correlation

0.567

Pred vs Actual r-value

Game Prediction Accuracy

Data Source Context

Live Predictions

Made before game kickoff

Backtest Predictions

4316

Generated after game (historical analysis)

Spread: 48.0% O/U: 46.4%

Note: All current predictions are from backtesting (historical analysis). Live prediction tracking begins when predictions are generated before game kickoff.

Moneyline (Win/Loss)

53.9% Correct Predictions

586 Correct

1087 Total

56.5% High Conf (70%+)

-7.4% ROI (backtest)

Spread (ATS)

49.3% ATS Accuracy

11.6 MAE (pts)

14.8 RMSE

518 ATS Wins

-4.9% ROI (backtest)

Total (Over/Under)

50.8% O/U Accuracy

11.7 MAE (pts)

15.0 RMSE

544 O/U Wins

-2.1% ROI (backtest)

Seasonal Performance

Season	Games	Win Accuracy	Spread Error	Total Error	ROI
2021	272	57.0%	—	—	—
2022	271	55.7%	—	—	—
2023	272	51.1%	—	—	—
2024	272	51.8%	—	—	—

Fantasy Projection Accuracy

Stat Type	MAE	RMSE	Bias	Within 5	Within 10	Correlation	Sample
Fantasy Points Ppr	5.31	7.11	+0.64	58.9%	85.8%	0.567	3409
Fantasy Points Half	4.86	6.60	+0.58	63.0%	88.7%	0.582	3409
Fantasy Points Std	4.50	6.30	+0.57	67.0%	90.5%	0.590	3409
Passing Yards	8.29	32.59	-0.27	88.9%	89.5%	0.900	3409
Passing Tds	0.11	0.40	-0.00	100.0%	100.0%	0.761	3409
Rushing Yards	8.81	18.89	+0.11	64.9%	74.2%	0.738	3409
Rushing Tds	0.15	0.36	+0.00	100.0%	100.0%	0.419	3409
Receiving Yards	16.59	24.71	+1.33	31.1%	47.2%	0.624	3409
Receiving Tds	0.25	0.42	+0.01	100.0%	100.0%	0.266	3409
Receptions	1.27	1.81	+0.07	98.3%	100.0%	0.646	3409

QB Accuracy Breakdown

Stat Type	MAE	Bias	Within 5	Correlation
Fantasy Points Ppr	6.75	+0.48	46.1%	0.267
Fantasy Points Half	6.68	+0.40	46.1%	0.283
Fantasy Points Std	6.74	+0.47	46.3%	0.273
Passing Yards	71.26	-2.50	4.8%	0.242
Passing Tds	0.97	-0.03	100.0%	0.252
Rushing Yards	12.29	+0.68	24.1%	0.423
Rushing Tds	0.29	-0.00	100.0%	0.305
Receiving Yards	0.30	+0.18	98.5%	0.269
Receiving Tds	0.01	+0.00	100.0%	-0.011
Receptions	0.04	+0.01	100.0%	0.365

RB Accuracy Breakdown

Stat Type	MAE	Bias	Within 5	Correlation
Fantasy Points Ppr	5.81	+0.65	55.3%	0.531
Fantasy Points Half	5.56	+0.63	57.8%	0.505
Fantasy Points Std	5.42	+0.68	59.1%	0.457
Passing Yards	0.03	+0.03	100.0%	0.188
Passing Tds	0.00	+0.00	100.0%	0.057
Rushing Yards	25.17	+0.00	16.2%	0.510
Rushing Tds	0.43	+0.01	100.0%	0.266
Receiving Yards	11.56	-0.19	34.8%	0.448
Receiving Tds	0.15	-0.01	100.0%	0.150
Receptions	1.20	-0.04	98.9%	0.510

WR Accuracy Breakdown

Stat Type	MAE	Bias	Within 5	Correlation
Fantasy Points Ppr	5.36	+0.98	57.6%	0.498
Fantasy Points Half	4.72	+0.87	63.0%	0.464
Fantasy Points Std	4.17	+0.80	68.9%	0.397
Passing Yards	0.07	+0.02	99.9%	-0.005
Passing Tds	0.00	+0.00	100.0%	-0.005
Rushing Yards	1.51	+0.09	90.6%	0.210
Rushing Tds	0.01	+0.00	100.0%	0.001
Receiving Yards	25.06	+2.90	13.7%	0.487
Receiving Tds	0.37	+0.02	100.0%	0.203
Receptions	1.66	+0.19	97.5%	0.540

TE Accuracy Breakdown

Stat Type	MAE	Bias	Within 5	Correlation
Fantasy Points Ppr	3.87	+0.13	72.2%	0.519
Fantasy Points Half	3.33	+0.11	77.7%	0.486
Fantasy Points Std	2.85	+0.09	83.8%	0.430
Passing Yards	0.00	+0.00	100.0%	0.000
Passing Tds	0.00	+0.00	100.0%	0.000
Rushing Yards	0.31	+0.01	98.8%	0.268
Rushing Tds	0.01	-0.00	100.0%	-0.010
Receiving Yards	16.22	+0.97	22.2%	0.530
Receiving Tds	0.29	-0.00	100.0%	0.188
Receptions	1.32	+0.04	98.3%	0.589

Admin Actions

Note: Projections should be stored before games each week. Actuals can be fetched after games complete.

Player Props Performance

Awaiting live prop lines

No performance is shown because no bets yet meet the bar: the line must come from a real sportsbook and the bet must have been recorded before it settled. Currently 34 bets qualify.

The stored history was generated from synthetic lines derived from actual results, so a win rate or ROI computed on it would be meaningless. This section fills in on its own once live line scraping starts.

View Current Props

Trends & Historical Performance

Weekly Fantasy MAE Trend

Week 1 7.93 MAE (196 players)

Week 2 5.04 MAE (186 players)

Week 3 4.99 MAE (193 players)

Week 4 5.44 MAE (193 players)

Week 5 5.42 MAE (163 players)

Week 6 5.05 MAE (177 players)

Week 7 5.3 MAE (180 players)

Week 8 5.53 MAE (159 players)

Week 9 5.16 MAE (174 players)

Week 10 5.14 MAE (180 players)

Week 11 5.16 MAE (194 players)

Week 12 5.33 MAE (171 players)

Week 13 4.89 MAE (199 players)

Week 14 5.15 MAE (184 players)

Week 15 5.33 MAE (203 players)

Week 16 5.17 MAE (222 players)

Week 17 4.82 MAE (220 players)

Week 18 4.75 MAE (215 players)

Model Calibration Notes

Bias: Positive = over-projecting, Negative = under-projecting

Correlation: How well projections rank players (>0.7 is good)

MAE: Average point difference (lower is better)

RMSE: Penalizes large errors more than MAE