Track Record
Full transparency on all alerts, CLV tracking, and performance metrics.
How to read this
This is the as-shown record: every pick displayed to users (deduped to one bet per pick at the best available price), with no retroactive filtering. It covers a single, mostly-playoff regime and is not a proven edge — recent windows have run around break-even to slightly negative, and the ROI confidence intervals span zero. All CLV figures use the fixed no-vig (devig) CLV; the legacy price-based CLV was discredited and no longer appears anywhere on this page. Judge us on forward results, not any single window. A current-ruleset (would-have-been) view is available, clearly labeled — it excludes picks that were shown, so it is not the record.
Recent Performance
Last 7 Days
CLV+ Rate
48.30%
Avg Edge
+0.20%
ROI
+2.64%
Record
15-14
Win Rate
51.70%
Last 30 Days
CLV+ Rate
67.00%
Avg Edge
+0.90%
ROI
+3.27%
Record
77-63
Win Rate
55.00%
CLV+ Rate
58.00%
Beat the closing line (no-vig devig CLV, reliable closes only)
Average CLV
+0.46%
Edge vs closing line
ROI (90d)
-0.90%
95% CI [-5.4, +3.6]%
All-time -0.09% (n=5878, not significant)
Total Alerts
1,745
1,734 settled
Win Rate
52.80%
915W - 819L
Track Record
Verified
Over 1,700+ alerts tracked
CLV Distribution
Distribution of no-vig (devig) Closing Line Value across alerts with a reliably captured close — the same CLV definition as every other number on this page. Positive CLV indicates we got a better price than the fair closing line.
Performance by Sport
| Sport | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mlb | 189 | 59.70% | +0.57% | 48.10% | 88-95 | -5.64% |
| tennis_wta | 2 | 100.00% | +2.12% | 100.00% | 2-0 | +53.48% |
| tennis_atp | 2 | 100.00% | +2.23% | 50.00% | 1-1 | +0.00% |
| nhl | 370 | 77.80% | +1.43% | 58.10% | 215-155 | -1.24% |
| nba | 1,182 | 46.60% | -0.15% | 51.70% | 609-568 | -0.15% |
Performance by Bet Type
| Bet Type | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 160 | 58.90% | +0.67% | 45.50% | 70-84 | -8.25% |
| Moneyline | 35 | 58.80% | +0.25% | 68.60% | 24-11 | +16.12% |
| Spread | 32 | 51.70% | -0.27% | 59.40% | 19-13 | +2.44% |
| Points | 537 | 58.30% | +0.29% | 54.50% | 291-243 | +0.63% |
| Shots on Goal | 264 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 53.80% | 142-122 | -2.64% |
| Rebounds | 410 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 48.40% | 198-211 | -6.77% |
| Assists | 307 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 55.90% | 171-135 | +7.19% |
Performance by Detector Source
Compares alerts produced by each detector. market_consensus
is the live line-shopping detector. nhl_stacking_v3 is the
NHL regular-season stacking model — it is in observation mode with
no live alerts and no live record yet (it starts
emitting when the NHL regular season opens); any performance figure
attached to it elsewhere is a backtest, not live results, and it will
only appear in this table once it has real settled alerts. Other model
sources visible here (e.g. nba_model_v2,
nhl_model_v1) are sunset — historical alerts only, no new
picks since 2026-05-30.
| Source | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| market_consensus | 1,745 | 58.00% | +0.46% | 52.80% | 915-819 | -0.90% |
Performance by Movement Signal
| Movement Class | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| expanding | 31-35 | 47.00% | -24.97% |
| confirming | 19-6 | 76.00% | +50.07% |
| fading | 11-8 | 57.90% | +0.12% |
| RLM Status | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| No RLM | 47-40 | 54.00% | -5.57% |
| RLM | 14-9 | 60.90% | +3.93% |
Alert Log
Showing 1745 most recent alerts| Date | Sport | Type | Selection | Book | Alert Odds | Close Odds | CLV | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Chicago Cubs @ Baltimore Orioles
|
Fanatics | +100 | -107 | -0.24% | +2.86% | WIN |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 6.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
|
Fanatics | +100 | -106 | +0.00% | +4.0% | LOSS |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Athletics @ Detroit Tigers
|
LowVig | +107 | -110 | -0.83% | +6.43% | WIN |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
|
FanDuel | +104 | -112 | +2.43% | +1.06% | LOSS |
| 07/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Atlanta Braves @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
Fanatics | +100 | -113 | +2.98% | +3.84% | WIN |
| 07/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Francisco Giants
|
LowVig | +101 | -115 | +2.42% | +3.22% | LOSS |
| 07/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds
|
BetMGM | +105 | -104 | +0.74% | +5.68% | LOSS |
| 07/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers
|
BetMGM | +105 | -106 | +2.19% | +4.51% | WIN |
| 07/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
|
LowVig | +103 | -106 | +1.22% | +3.61% | LOSS |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Arizona Diamondbacks ML
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
|
BetUS | +109 | +112 | -1.82% | +1.71% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Spread |
Colorado Rockies +1.5
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
LowVig | +103 | +107 | -2.24% | +1.74% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
Fanatics | +100 | +102 | -0.48% | +2.36% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Philadelphia Phillies ML
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | -188 | -205 | +1.18% | +0.77% | LOSS |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
Fanatics | +100 | -116 | -2.17% | +4.79% | LOSS |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Spread |
Houston Astros +1.5
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | -160 | -185 | +2.39% | +0.73% | WIN |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | +103 | +100 | -0.83% | +2.93% | LOSS |
| 07/06/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
|
LowVig | +107 | -106 | +1.69% | +3.32% | WIN |
| 07/05/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
New York Mets ML
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
BetUS | +107 | -106 | +2.18% | +1.09% | WIN |
| 07/05/26 | mlb | Spread |
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners
|
MyBookie | -168 | -207 | +3.04% | +0.89% | LOSS |
| 07/05/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
|
FanDuel | +104 | +103 | -1.30% | +2.09% | WIN |
| 07/05/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
FanDuel | +100 | -113 | -2.05% | +1.69% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Texas Rangers ML
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
|
BetUS | +106 | +111 | -2.18% | +1.31% | LOSS |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
|
LowVig | +103 | -108 | +1.22% | +2.76% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 11.5
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
|
FanDuel | +100 | -105 | -0.24% | +2.52% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Spread |
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
|
BetMGM | -145 | -153 | +0.27% | +2.18% | WIN |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Spread |
New York Yankees -1.5
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
|
FanDuel | +132 | +131 | -1.23% | +1.03% | LOSS |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
|
FanDuel | +100 | -110 | +0.97% | +2.36% | LOSS |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
|
DraftKings | -101 | +106 | -3.23% | +2.49% | LOSS |
| 07/04/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.0
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | +107 | +101 | -0.12% | +5.06% | LOSS |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Spread |
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
|
BetUS | -165 | -173 | +0.11% | +0.81% | WIN |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
|
LowVig | -102 | +101 | -2.19% | +1.81% | LOSS |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
|
LowVig | +103 | -109 | +1.47% | +3.44% | WIN |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
William Hill | +100 | -111 | +1.09% | +3.84% | WIN |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
|
LowVig | -102 | -102 | -1.71% | +1.32% | WIN |
| 07/03/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.0
Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
|
LowVig | +103 | -108 | +0.50% | +3.1% | LOSS |
| 07/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
|
DraftKings | -103 | +104 | -3.72% | +1.46% | WIN |
| 07/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
|
William Hill | +110 | -117 | +5.36% | +0.85% | LOSS |
| 07/02/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 6.5
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
LowVig | +107 | -119 | +4.44% | +7.24% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Toronto Blue Jays ML
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays
|
LowVig | +105 | -112 | +2.44% | +1.32% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 11.5
San Diego Padres @ Chicago Cubs
|
LowVig | +107 | -105 | +1.45% | +2.45% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 10.0
Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles
|
William Hill | +105 | -101 | +0.01% | +4.17% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics
|
William Hill | +115 | -113 | +5.06% | +6.87% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays
|
DraftKings | +102 | -108 | +2.55% | +4.25% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Athletics
|
Fanatics | +100 | -116 | +1.93% | +2.87% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Washington Nationals @ Boston Red Sox
|
MyBookie | +104 | -103 | +0.25% | +1.4% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
|
FanDuel | +102 | -114 | +2.31% | +1.38% | WIN |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | +100 | -112 | +0.48% | +2.18% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros
|
LowVig | +107 | -107 | +1.93% | +4.54% | LOSS |
| 07/01/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 11.5
Miami Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
|
BetMGM | +100 | N/A | N/A | +1.01% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | mlb | Spread |
Colorado Rockies +1.5
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
|
LowVig | -112 | -119 | +0.26% | +1.72% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Paula Badosa ML
Paula Badosa @ Suzan Lamens
|
William Hill | -115 | -142 | +3.92% | +5.22% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Linda Noskova ML
Renata Zarazua @ Linda Noskova
|
BetUS | -500 | -541 | +0.32% | +2.24% | WIN |
| 06/16/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Jakub Mensik ML
Adrian Mannarino @ Jakub Mensik
|
LowVig | -164 | -195 | +2.89% | +2.01% | LOSS |
| 06/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | +112 | +105 | +0.08% | +4.38% | LOSS |
| 06/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros
|
BetOnline | +112 | +101 | +1.14% | +7.52% | LOSS |
| 06/15/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
St. Louis Cardinals ML
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
|
DraftKings | -151 | -159 | +0.41% | +0.84% | WIN |
| 06/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs
|
BetUS | +105 | -113 | +2.79% | +5.88% | PUSH |
| 06/15/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Hubert Hurkacz ML
Hubert Hurkacz @ Andrey Rublev
|
BetUS | +100 | -113 | +1.57% | +2.75% | WIN |
| 06/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | +112 | -113 | +4.40% | +3.48% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Shea Theodore Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
BetMGM | -120 | N/A | N/A | +0.84% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Noah Hanifin Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
DraftKings | -280 | N/A | N/A | +1.96% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Sean Walker Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
BetMGM | -350 | N/A | N/A | +0.59% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Points |
Colton Sissons Under 0.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
BetMGM | -325 | N/A | N/A | +0.62% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Shots on Goal |
Jack Eichel Over 2.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
FanDuel | -108 | N/A | N/A | +1.2% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Shots on Goal |
Noah Hanifin Under 1.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
Bovada | -210 | N/A | N/A | +0.66% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Shots on Goal |
Sebastian Aho Under 2.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
Bovada | -145 | N/A | N/A | +1.49% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nhl | Shots on Goal |
Jack Eichel Under 2.5
Carolina Hurricanes @ Vegas Golden Knights
|
Bovada | +110 | N/A | N/A | +2.28% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox
|
FanDuel | +100 | -110 | +0.97% | +1.27% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago White Sox
|
LowVig | +112 | -102 | +1.86% | +3.93% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Spread |
Houston Astros +1.5
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals
|
LowVig | -180 | -200 | +1.44% | +0.92% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
LowVig | +112 | -120 | +6.03% | +3.93% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.0
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
BetMGM | +100 | +107 | -3.20% | +1.27% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins
|
LowVig | +103 | -117 | +3.26% | +4.33% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Spread |
Texas Rangers +1.5
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
|
BetOnline | -190 | -199 | +0.09% | +2.17% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Stephon Castle Under 16.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +100 | N/A | N/A | +2.91% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Josh Hart Under 9.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
DraftKings | -105 | N/A | N/A | +1.75% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Dylan Harper Under 14.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +125 | N/A | N/A | +4.95% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Jalen Brunson Under 28.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +100 | N/A | N/A | +2.91% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Mikal Bridges Under 10.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +115 | N/A | N/A | +1.26% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Victor Wembanyama Under 28.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +100 | N/A | N/A | +0.84% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Rebounds |
Dylan Harper Under 5.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +115 | N/A | N/A | +1.91% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Spread |
Washington Nationals +1.5
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | -117 | -133 | +2.03% | +1.67% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals
|
LowVig | -102 | -113 | +1.19% | +1.23% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds
|
LowVig | +112 | -101 | +1.50% | +3.04% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Assists |
OG Anunoby Over 1.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
FanDuel | +102 | N/A | N/A | +3.41% | LOSS |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Keldon Johnson Over 6.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
FanDuel | +102 | -110 | +0.50% | +0.88% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Points |
Miles McBride Under 2.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | +115 | -102 | +1.60% | +2.57% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.0
Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
MyBookie | +102 | -114 | +2.31% | +6.16% | WIN |
| 06/14/26 | nba | Assists |
Julian Champagnie Under 1.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | -175 | N/A | N/A | +2.31% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Rebounds |
Jalen Brunson Under 3.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | -140 | N/A | N/A | +2.04% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Points |
Landry Shamet Over 6.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
FanDuel | +102 | -103 | -1.16% | +0.88% | LOSS |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Assists |
Devin Vassell Over 2.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | +120 | N/A | N/A | +2.89% | LOSS |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Rebounds |
Mikal Bridges Over 3.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
FanDuel | +124 | N/A | N/A | +2.11% | LOSS |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Points |
Karl-Anthony Towns Under 16.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
DraftKings | -110 | -118 | -0.61% | +0.95% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Assists |
Josh Hart Under 4.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | +115 | N/A | N/A | +1.47% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Points |
Victor Wembanyama Under 27.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +120 | -112 | +5.02% | +2.89% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Assists |
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +105 | N/A | N/A | +2.2% | LOSS |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Assists |
Victor Wembanyama Under 3.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
BetMGM | -130 | N/A | N/A | +3.01% | WIN |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Points |
Jalen Brunson Under 27.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
Bovada | +120 | -110 | +4.55% | +7.43% | LOSS |
| 06/13/26 | nba | Rebounds |
Stephon Castle Over 4.5
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
|
FanDuel | -125 | N/A | N/A | +0.97% | WIN |
How We Calculate EV
We use Pinnacle as our sharp benchmark and calculate true probabilities through multiplicative devigging. Our edge is the difference between our calculated true probability and the implied probability at soft books.
Read Full Methodology