Track Record
Full transparency on all alerts, CLV tracking, and performance metrics.
How to read this
This is the as-shown record: every pick displayed to users (deduped to one bet per pick at the best available price), with no retroactive filtering. It covers a single, mostly-playoff regime and is not a proven edge — recent windows have run around break-even to slightly negative, and the ROI confidence intervals span zero. All CLV figures use the fixed no-vig (devig) CLV; the legacy price-based CLV was discredited and no longer appears anywhere on this page. Judge us on forward results, not any single window. A current-ruleset (would-have-been) view is available, clearly labeled — it excludes picks that were shown, so it is not the record.
Recent Performance
Last 7 Days
CLV+ Rate
45.50%
Avg Edge
-0.56%
ROI
-16.42%
Record
7-9
Win Rate
43.80%
Last 30 Days
CLV+ Rate
68.90%
Avg Edge
+0.66%
ROI
-16.37%
Record
48-59
Win Rate
44.90%
CLV+ Rate
59.10%
Beat the closing line (no-vig devig CLV, reliable closes only)
Average CLV
+0.30%
Edge vs closing line
ROI (90d)
-10.46%
95% CI [-18.8, -2.2]%
All-time -0.45% (n=6031, not significant)
Total Alerts
525
511 settled
Win Rate
47.60%
243W - 268L
Track Record
Verified
Over 500+ alerts tracked
CLV Distribution
Distribution of no-vig (devig) Closing Line Value across alerts with a reliably captured close — the same CLV definition as every other number on this page. Positive CLV indicates we got a better price than the fair closing line.
Performance by Sport
| Sport | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mlb | 316 | 55.20% | +0.12% | 46.90% | 143-162 | -9.43% |
| tennis_wta | 9 | 100.00% | +2.42% | 71.40% | 5-2 | -1.44% |
| tennis_atp | 7 | 100.00% | +1.83% | 33.30% | 2-4 | -40.20% |
| nhl | 57 | 50.00% | +0.10% | 54.40% | 31-26 | -11.65% |
| nba | 136 | 59.50% | +0.31% | 45.60% | 62-74 | -11.42% |
Performance by Bet Type
| Bet Type | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 227 | 42.50% | -0.03% | 43.10% | 93-123 | -12.63% |
| Spread | 41 | 62.20% | -0.10% | 61.00% | 25-16 | +4.44% |
| Moneyline | 68 | 77.60% | +0.92% | 52.30% | 34-31 | -9.45% |
| Points | 67 | 58.30% | +0.29% | 44.80% | 30-37 | -19.49% |
| Shots on Goal | 42 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 47.60% | 20-22 | -17.32% |
| Rebounds | 40 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 47.50% | 19-21 | -8.48% |
| Assists | 40 | 0.00% | +0.00% | 55.00% | 22-18 | +4.71% |
Performance by Detector Source
Compares alerts produced by each detector. market_consensus
is the live line-shopping detector. nhl_stacking_v3 is the
NHL regular-season stacking model — it is in observation mode with
no live alerts and no live record yet (it starts
emitting when the NHL regular season opens); any performance figure
attached to it elsewhere is a backtest, not live results, and it will
only appear in this table once it has real settled alerts. Other model
sources visible here (e.g. nba_model_v2,
nhl_model_v1) are sunset — historical alerts only, no new
picks since 2026-05-30.
| Source | Alerts | CLV+ Rate | Avg CLV | Win Rate | W-L | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| market_consensus | 525 | 59.10% | +0.30% | 47.60% | 243-268 | -10.46% |
Performance by Movement Signal
| Movement Class | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| expanding | 31-43 | 41.90% | -30.15% |
| fading | 13-7 | 65.00% | +11.20% |
| confirming | 13-4 | 76.50% | +53.80% |
| RLM Status | Record | Win Rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| No RLM | 45-47 | 48.90% | -12.96% |
| RLM | 12-7 | 63.20% | +5.27% |
Alert Log
Showing 525 most recent alerts| Date | Sport | Type | Selection | Book | Alert Odds | Close Odds | CLV | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/20/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
|
Bovada | +105 | N/A | N/A | +4.68% | WIN |
| 08/20/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
LowVig | +107 | N/A | N/A | +3.84% | LOSS |
| 08/20/26 | mlb | Spread |
San Francisco Giants +1.5
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
|
MyBookie | -129 | N/A | N/A | +0.64% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Kansas City Royals ML
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
|
FanDuel | -174 | -185 | +0.43% | +0.95% | WIN |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Cleveland Guardians ML
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
|
FanDuel | -194 | -225 | +2.50% | +0.78% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Spread |
San Francisco Giants +1.5
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
|
LowVig | -131 | -107 | -6.22% | +1.1% | WIN |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians
|
Fanatics | +105 | +105 | -1.53% | +6.5% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
|
FanDuel | +100 | -116 | N/A | +3.84% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Aryna Sabalenka ML
Sara Bejlek @ Aryna Sabalenka
|
William Hill | -600 | -883 | +3.50% | +2.98% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Spread |
New York Mets +1.5
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
|
FanDuel | -140 | -138 | -1.49% | +0.73% | WIN |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Atlanta Braves ML
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
|
FanDuel | -102 | -110 | +0.84% | +1.26% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
|
Bovada | +100 | +105 | -2.75% | +2.52% | WIN |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox
|
LowVig | +103 | -102 | -0.23% | +1.39% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
Fanatics | +100 | -101 | N/A | +2.86% | LOSS |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
LowVig | +107 | -102 | +0.72% | +7.08% | WIN |
| 08/19/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
New York Mets ML
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
|
FanDuel | +120 | +124 | -1.88% | +1.1% | WIN |
| 08/18/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Madison Keys ML
Xiyu Wang @ Madison Keys
|
FanDuel | -365 | -406 | +1.03% | +2.47% | WIN |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
|
MyBookie | +100 | +106 | N/A | +3.84% | LOSS |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Chicago Cubs ML
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
|
William Hill | -157 | -169 | +0.88% | +1.64% | WIN |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
|
DraftKings | +101 | -112 | N/A | +3.88% | LOSS |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
|
DraftKings | +100 | +104 | -2.52% | +3.18% | LOSS |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
LowVig | -102 | +100 | -1.95% | +1.32% | WIN |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
FanDuel | +100 | -102 | -1.21% | +2.86% | LOSS |
| 08/18/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers
|
LowVig | +103 | -115 | N/A | +3.95% | LOSS |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
|
DraftKings | -257 | -276 | +0.81% | +1.51% | WIN |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Cincinnati Reds ML
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
|
BetUS | +106 | -104 | +1.22% | +1.32% | LOSS |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies
|
Bovada | +100 | -102 | -0.97% | +2.52% | WIN |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox
|
Bovada | +105 | -112 | N/A | +3.13% | LOSS |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Spread |
Atlanta Braves -1.5
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
|
Bovada | +140 | +127 | +0.93% | +0.76% | LOSS |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
|
Bovada | +105 | -101 | N/A | +3.48% | WIN |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs
|
LowVig | +107 | +101 | -0.12% | +4.54% | LOSS |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 10.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
|
MyBookie | -101 | -111 | N/A | +2.16% | LOSS |
| 08/17/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
William Hill | +100 | +101 | -1.81% | +2.52% | LOSS |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Boston Red Sox ML
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
LowVig | -103 | -106 | -0.25% | +1.46% | LOSS |
| 08/16/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Marie Bouzkova ML
Lucrezia Stefanini @ Marie Bouzkova
|
FanDuel | -350 | -440 | +3.02% | +2.98% | WIN |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
|
Bovada | -105 | -111 | -0.01% | +2.08% | LOSS |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
LowVig | +103 | -102 | -0.23% | +3.95% | LOSS |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
|
Bovada | +100 | +100 | N/A | +3.51% | LOSS |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
|
FanDuel | +100 | -113 | N/A | +2.86% | LOSS |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
|
LowVig | +112 | -103 | +0.55% | +7.22% | WIN |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
|
LowVig | +107 | +102 | N/A | +2.45% | WIN |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
|
LowVig | +103 | -113 | N/A | +3.79% | LOSS |
| 08/16/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
|
LowVig | +103 | +106 | N/A | +3.95% | LOSS |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Minnesota Twins ML
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
|
DraftKings | +123 | +116 | +0.34% | +1.9% | LOSS |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Texas Rangers ML
Texas Rangers @ Athletics
|
FanDuel | -146 | -166 | +1.85% | +1.34% | WIN |
| 08/15/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Miomir Kecmanovic ML
Flavio Cobolli @ Miomir Kecmanovic
|
Bovada | +115 | +105 | +0.74% | +2.95% | LOSS |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
|
Fanatics | +105 | -119 | N/A | +6.17% | LOSS |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
|
LowVig | +105 | -102 | +3.15% | +5.85% | LOSS |
| 08/15/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Amanda Anisimova ML
Amanda Anisimova @ Zeynep Sonmez
|
DraftKings | -370 | -451 | +2.45% | +2.52% | WIN |
| 08/15/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
James Duckworth ML
James Duckworth @ Arthur Fery
|
FanDuel | +125 | -103 | +4.71% | +3.12% | LOSS |
| 08/15/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Belinda Bencic ML
Belinda Bencic @ Lois Boisson
|
FanDuel | -350 | -433 | +2.77% | +3.41% | NONE |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
BetMGM | +100 | -114 | N/A | +2.86% | LOSS |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Spread |
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins
|
Bovada | +130 | +129 | -1.25% | +3.06% | WIN |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
|
Bovada | +105 | -103 | N/A | +5.68% | WIN |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.5
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves
|
FanDuel | +100 | -102 | N/A | +1.35% | WIN |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
|
Bovada | +100 | -120 | +3.20% | +2.02% | WIN |
| 08/15/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
|
LowVig | +103 | -110 | N/A | +3.95% | PUSH |
| 08/14/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Pittsburgh Pirates ML
Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
FanDuel | +112 | +102 | +1.37% | +1.22% | WIN |
| 08/14/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Novak Djokovic ML
Thiago Agustin Tirante @ Novak Djokovic
|
DraftKings | -307 | -353 | +1.73% | +3.43% | LOSS |
| 08/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Texas Rangers @ Athletics
|
William Hill | +105 | -112 | N/A | +1.41% | LOSS |
| 08/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.0
New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays
|
LowVig | +103 | -104 | +0.26% | +1.05% | LOSS |
| 08/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
|
Bovada | +100 | -110 | N/A | +2.52% | WIN |
| 08/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.0
San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians
|
DraftKings | +104 | -105 | +0.50% | +4.65% | LOSS |
| 08/14/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
|
LowVig | +103 | -109 | N/A | +3.27% | WIN |
| 08/13/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Cameron Norrie ML
Dino Prizmic @ Cameron Norrie
|
BetUS | -170 | -184 | +0.77% | +2.22% | WIN |
| 08/13/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Taylor Townsend ML
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano @ Taylor Townsend
|
BetUS | -140 | -161 | +2.21% | +2.5% | NONE |
| 08/13/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
|
Bovada | +100 | +108 | N/A | +1.85% | LOSS |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox
|
Bovada | +105 | -108 | N/A | +3.65% | WIN |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers
|
LowVig | +107 | -104 | +0.96% | +4.71% | WIN |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Baltimore Orioles ML
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
|
William Hill | +101 | -105 | +0.49% | +0.87% | LOSS |
| 08/12/26 | tennis_atp | Moneyline |
Terence Atmane ML
Terence Atmane @ Marton Fucsovics
|
DraftKings | -192 | -205 | +0.43% | +2.32% | NONE |
| 08/12/26 | tennis_wta | Moneyline |
Ashlyn Krueger ML
Lois Boisson @ Ashlyn Krueger
|
DraftKings | -216 | -255 | +2.54% | +2.68% | LOSS |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Atlanta Braves ML
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
LowVig | -150 | -179 | +3.39% | +1.0% | WIN |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 9.0
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
|
LowVig | +105 | +106 | -1.76% | +4.17% | PUSH |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.0
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins
|
William Hill | +100 | -102 | -0.97% | +3.18% | LOSS |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
|
FanDuel | +102 | +105 | -2.25% | +4.58% | LOSS |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals
|
LowVig | +107 | +101 | N/A | +4.89% | LOSS |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Spread |
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
FanDuel | +130 | +115 | +1.69% | +1.72% | LOSS |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
|
LowVig | +107 | -111 | +2.78% | +6.59% | LOSS |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 7.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
|
Bovada | +100 | -114 | N/A | +3.18% | WIN |
| 08/12/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Tampa Bay Rays ML
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
|
FanDuel | -180 | -190 | +0.45% | +0.97% | WIN |
| 08/11/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics
|
LowVig | +110 | -111 | N/A | +3.5% | LOSS |
| 08/10/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Arizona Diamondbacks ML
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
FanDuel | -186 | -204 | +1.24% | +1.03% | WIN |
| 08/10/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Minnesota Twins ML
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
|
DraftKings | +109 | -106 | +2.64% | +1.27% | WIN |
| 08/10/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
|
LowVig | +107 | -115 | N/A | +2.8% | WIN |
| 08/10/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
San Francisco Giants ML
Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants
|
William Hill | +143 | +131 | +0.91% | +1.32% | LOSS |
| 08/09/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Milwaukee Brewers ML
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
|
FanDuel | -245 | -268 | +1.15% | +1.22% | WIN |
| 08/09/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Philadelphia Phillies ML
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
|
FanDuel | -220 | -234 | +0.50% | +1.44% | WIN |
| 08/09/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 10.0
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
|
William Hill | +105 | +106 | N/A | +2.09% | LOSS |
| 08/09/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Boston Red Sox ML
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
|
FanDuel | -235 | -218 | -1.76% | +1.2% | LOSS |
| 08/09/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Washington Nationals ML
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
|
DraftKings | +101 | -107 | +0.98% | +0.87% | WIN |
| 08/09/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Cleveland Guardians ML
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
|
BetOnline | -102 | -124 | +3.69% | +1.26% | LOSS |
| 08/08/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Atlanta Braves ML
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees
|
William Hill | +135 | +127 | +0.45% | +1.08% | WIN |
| 08/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Over 8.5
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
|
LowVig | +103 | +101 | -1.31% | +3.79% | WIN |
| 08/08/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Texas Rangers ML
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
|
FanDuel | -126 | -128 | -0.31% | +1.25% | LOSS |
| 08/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 8.5
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
LowVig | +107 | +101 | N/A | +5.24% | WIN |
| 08/08/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Los Angeles Dodgers ML
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
|
FanDuel | -178 | -190 | +0.71% | +0.87% | WIN |
| 08/08/26 | mlb | Moneyline |
Boston Red Sox ML
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
|
FanDuel | -230 | -277 | +3.10% | +1.15% | LOSS |
| 08/08/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 9.0
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox
|
LowVig | +103 | -111 | +1.95% | +4.62% | LOSS |
| 08/07/26 | mlb | Total |
Under 7.5
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers
|
LowVig | -102 | -116 | +1.78% | +1.65% | WIN |
How We Calculate EV
We use Pinnacle as our sharp benchmark and calculate true probabilities through multiplicative devigging. Our edge is the difference between our calculated true probability and the implied probability at soft books.
Read Full Methodology