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Methodology

How alerts find prices above fair odds, and how they are graded.

Fair odds come from Pinnacle

Pinnacle runs margins of about 2–3% on major markets and takes large bets from professional bettors, so its line moves to the market consensus quickly. Alerts treat Pinnacle's line, with the margin removed, as the fair price.

No prediction model is involved. An alert is a price at a retail book that beats that fair price.

Removing the margin

A book's two prices add up to more than 100%. Fair probabilities use Shin's method, which fit 134,600 closing lines better than the multiplicative and power methods. In a two-way market it takes the same amount off each side.

Example: NFL spread

Pinnacle: Chiefs -3 (-108), Bills +3 (-112)

Implied: Chiefs 108 / 208 = 51.92%, Bills 112 / 212 = 52.83%. Total 104.75%.

Each side gives up half the 4.75% margin:
• Chiefs: 51.92% − 2.38% = 49.55%
• Bills: 52.83% − 2.38% = 50.45%

Expected value

EV = fair_probability × decimal_odds − 1

Example

Fair probability for Chiefs -3: 49.55%

DraftKings at +100 (2.00): EV = 0.4955 × 2.00 − 1 = −0.9%
DraftKings at +110 (2.10): EV = 0.4955 × 2.10 − 1 = +4.1%

Steps

  1. 1Fetch Pinnacle odds
  2. 2Remove the margin (Shin's method)
  3. 3Compare retail books: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and others
  4. 4Alert when a price's EV clears the threshold

Closing line value (CLV)

CLV compares the bet with the market's final view. It settles much faster than profit and loss, because it doesn't wait on the coin flips of the games.

CLV = closing fair probability − probability implied by the bet's price

Example

Bet Chiefs -3 at +110: implied 47.6%.
At kickoff Pinnacle's fair probability for that side is 50.5%.

CLV = 50.5% − 47.6% = +2.9 points

The closing price is Pinnacle's last line before the game.

Alert tiers

Tiers are bands of EV at the time of the alert.

STRONGEV above 5%
MODERATEEV 3.5–5%
LEANEV 2.5–3.5%
SLIGHTEV 1.5–2.5%

Limitations

  • The record is not profitable overall. Several markets lost money and were switched off. See the track record.
  • Lines move. By the time an alert is read, the price may be gone.
  • Books limit winners. Accounts that beat the close get smaller limits.
  • Variance. A real 2% edge needs thousands of bets to show up in profit.