Best Bets

Games where our model and the no-vig DraftKings price disagree by 5+ points

Value Plays

Total Games

Priced so far

Track record of this rule

	Bets	Record	Units	ROI	95% range
This season	105	55-42-8	+4.3	+4.1%	-15 to +23%
Last season (from Feb 14)	45	15-27-3	-9.0	-20.0%	-54 to +14%

This season: every bet (105)

Date	Bet	Odds	Model	Market	Score	Result
11-06	North Dakota vs Western Michigan	+114 draftkings	51%	44%	2-2	Push
11-06	Boston College vs Vermont	-140 draftkings	75%	55%	4-4	Push
11-06	Clarkson vs Union	+140 draftkings	46%	39%	6-2	W +1.40
11-06	Omaha vs St. Cloud State	+100 draftkings	55%	47%	2-2	Push
11-06	Bentley vs RIT	-215 draftkings	74%	65%	4-3	W +0.47
11-06	Cornell vs Quinnipiac	+150 draftkings	42%	37%	1-4	L −1
11-06	Princeton at Colgate	-210 draftkings	70%	65%	2-5	L −1
11-06	Penn State vs Notre Dame	-180 draftkings	68%	61%	4-5	L −1
11-06	Mass.-Lowell vs New Hampshire	+124 draftkings	47%	42%	0-3	L −1
11-06	Colorado College vs Lindenwood	-395 draftkings	85%	77%	4-2	W +0.25
11-06	Merrimack vs Holy Cross	-298 draftkings	79%	72%	6-2	W +0.34
11-06	Sacred Heart vs Canisius	-200 draftkings	70%	64%	3-2	W +0.50
11-06	Harvard vs Brown	-270 draftkings	77%	70%	4-1	W +0.37
11-06	Air Force vs Army	-105 draftkings	55%	48%	1-4	L −1
11-06	Stonehill vs Alaska	+145 draftkings	48%	38%	1-2	L −1
11-06	St. Thomas vs Alaska-Anchorage	-360 draftkings	85%	75%	5-2	W +0.28
11-05	Boston College vs Vermont	-175 draftkings	75%	61%	2-5	L −1
11-01	Ohio State vs Michigan	+325 draftkings	28%	20%	4-5	L −1
10-31	Quinnipiac vs Providence	-115 draftkings	55%	50%	5-1	W +0.87
10-31	Stonehill vs Princeton	+210 draftkings	38%	29%	2-3	L −1
10-31	Penn State at Minnesota	+160 draftkings	47%	35%	3-4	L −1
10-31	North Dakota at Michigan State	+124 draftkings	48%	42%	3-5	L −1
10-31	Clarkson vs Niagara	-195 draftkings	73%	63%	2-6	L −1
10-31	Ohio State vs Michigan	+380 draftkings	28%	18%	5-2	W +3.80
10-31	Colgate vs Mass.-Lowell	+114 draftkings	49%	44%	4-3	W +1.14
10-31	Maine at Boston University	+145 draftkings	43%	38%	2-3	L −1
10-31	Minnesota State vs Lake Superior	-298 draftkings	79%	72%	2-2	Push
10-31	Bentley vs Holy Cross	-180 draftkings	69%	61%	4-3	W +0.56
10-31	Robert Morris vs Air Force	+120 draftkings	52%	42%	3-2	W +1.20
10-30	Army vs RIT	-140 draftkings	62%	55%	2-0	W +0.71
10-30	Stonehill vs Princeton	+195 draftkings	38%	31%	0-3	L −1
10-30	Penn State at Minnesota	+154 draftkings	47%	36%	1-1	Push
10-30	Wisconsin vs Notre Dame	-444 draftkings	85%	79%	7-1	W +0.23
10-30	Boston College vs Northeastern	-130 draftkings	64%	53%	3-2	W +0.77
10-30	Clarkson vs Niagara	-200 draftkings	73%	64%	2-2	Push
10-30	Minnesota State vs Lake Superior	-315 draftkings	79%	73%	2-2	Push
10-30	Massachusetts vs Harvard	-160 draftkings	74%	58%	4-2	W +0.62
10-30	Bemidji State vs Ferris State	-175 draftkings	67%	61%	6-1	W +0.57
10-30	Robert Morris vs Air Force	+124 draftkings	53%	42%	2-3	L −1
10-29	Massachusetts at Harvard	+108 betrivers	65%	44%	1-2	L −1
10-24	Union at Niagara	-260 draftkings	76%	69%	4-5	L −1
10-24	Bemidji State vs Minnesota Duluth	+310 draftkings	27%	21%	0-3	L −1
10-24	Sacred Heart vs Holy Cross	-160 draftkings	67%	58%	4-3	W +0.62
10-24	Connecticut at Boston University	+124 draftkings	51%	42%	3-6	L −1
10-24	Air Force vs Colorado College	+300 draftkings	40%	22%	0-4	L −1
10-24	Penn State vs Canisius	-280 draftkings	76%	71%	3-2	W +0.36
10-24	Ohio State vs Augustana	-105 draftkings	58%	48%	3-4	L −1
10-24	Miami vs Alaska-Anchorage	-345 draftkings	80%	74%	3-2	W +0.29
10-23	Union at Niagara	-245 draftkings	76%	68%	4-1	W +0.41
10-23	RPI at RIT	-125 betmgm	59%	52%	4-1	W +0.80
10-23	North Dakota at Minnesota	-220 draftkings	76%	66%	3-5	L −1
10-23	Penn State vs Canisius	-280 draftkings	76%	71%	5-1	W +0.36
10-23	Ohio State vs Augustana	-105 draftkings	58%	48%	2-3	L −1
10-23	Miami vs Alaska-Anchorage	-315 draftkings	80%	73%	5-1	W +0.32
10-22	North Dakota at Minnesota	-250 draftkings	77%	68%	3-5	L −1
10-22	Connecticut vs Boston University	+114 draftkings	58%	44%	5-4	W +1.14
10-17	Stonehill at Northern Michigan	-115 draftkings	59%	50%	2-1	W +0.87
10-17	Ohio State at Sacred Heart	-115 draftkings	57%	50%	5-1	W +0.87
10-17	Massachusetts vs Northeastern	-130 draftkings	59%	53%	1-4	L −1
10-17	Bowling Green vs Niagara	-270 draftkings	79%	70%	1-2	L −1
10-17	Merrimack vs Minnesota State	-135 draftkings	61%	54%	8-2	W +0.74
10-17	Denver vs Michigan	+114 draftkings	65%	44%	3-4	L −1
10-17	Robert Morris vs Miami	+150 draftkings	49%	37%	2-3	L −1
10-17	Connecticut vs Colorado College	-110 draftkings	58%	49%	1-4	L −1
10-17	Clarkson vs Canisius	-180 draftkings	73%	61%	5-0	W +0.56
10-17	Boston University at Vermont	-280 draftkings	77%	71%	2-1	W +0.36
10-17	Omaha vs Augustana	+124 draftkings	49%	42%	2-3	L −1
10-17	Mass.-Lowell vs Arizona State	+110 draftkings	50%	45%	2-4	L −1
10-16	Penn State vs Quinnipiac	+145 draftkings	48%	38%	3-6	L −1
10-16	Western Michigan vs Notre Dame	-395 draftkings	84%	77%	6-1	W +0.25
10-16	Massachusetts vs Northeastern	-115 draftkings	59%	50%	4-1	W +0.87
10-16	Bowling Green vs Niagara	-298 draftkings	79%	72%	2-3	L −1
10-16	Minnesota Duluth vs Minnesota	-175 draftkings	67%	61%	7-1	W +0.57
10-16	Merrimack vs Minnesota State	-120 draftkings	61%	51%	4-3	W +0.83
10-16	Denver vs Michigan	-105 draftkings	65%	48%	1-4	L −1
10-16	Air Force vs Lindenwood	-135 draftkings	68%	54%	4-7	L −1
10-16	Connecticut vs Colorado College	-105 draftkings	58%	48%	3-2	W +0.95
10-16	Clarkson vs Canisius	-210 draftkings	73%	65%	3-4	L −1
10-16	Michigan Tech vs Alaska	-180 draftkings	68%	61%	3-0	W +0.56
10-15	Boston College vs St. Cloud State	-180 draftkings	68%	61%	4-0	W +0.56
10-15	Air Force vs Lindenwood	-110 draftkings	68%	49%	5-2	W +0.91
10-10	Minnesota State vs Wisconsin	+160 draftkings	44%	35%	1-4	L −1
10-10	Mass.-Lowell vs St. Lawrence	-250 draftkings	75%	68%	4-2	W +0.40
10-10	Massachusetts vs RIT	-245 draftkings	82%	68%	5-1	W +0.41
10-10	Maine vs Quinnipiac	+154 draftkings	51%	36%	5-3	W +1.54
10-10	Sacred Heart vs Penn State	+210 draftkings	37%	29%	6-3	W +2.10
10-10	Bowling Green at Connecticut	+210 draftkings	42%	29%	5-2	W +2.10
10-10	Stonehill vs Colgate	+160 draftkings	44%	35%	4-2	W +1.60
10-10	Clarkson at Providence	+310 draftkings	29%	21%	0-4	L −1
10-10	Long Island vs Canisius	-120 draftkings	59%	51%	3-2	W +0.83
10-10	Union vs Alaska	-154 draftkings	67%	58%	7-1	W +0.65
10-10	St. Thomas vs Air Force	-210 draftkings	71%	65%	4-2	W +0.48
10-09	Bentley vs Vermont	-154 draftkings	67%	58%	3-0	W +0.65
10-09	Massachusetts vs RIT	-250 draftkings	82%	68%	2-2	Push
10-09	Maine vs Quinnipiac	+145 draftkings	51%	38%	1-2	L −1
10-09	Notre Dame vs Niagara	-220 draftkings	72%	66%	4-0	W +0.45
10-09	Stonehill vs Colgate	+175 draftkings	44%	33%	2-1	W +1.75
10-03	Michigan Tech vs Minnesota	+120 draftkings	53%	42%	3-2	W +1.20
10-03	Bowling Green vs Michigan	+390 draftkings	26%	17%	3-4	L −1
10-03	Merrimack at Quinnipiac	+240 draftkings	37%	26%	3-6	L −1
10-03	Alaska vs Boston University	+190 draftkings	37%	32%	0-4	L −1
10-03	Lindenwood vs Arizona State	+175 draftkings	41%	33%	9-6	W +1.75
10-02	Niagara vs RIT	+124 draftkings	52%	42%	4-1	W +1.24
10-02	Colorado College vs Massachusetts	+114 draftkings	50%	44%	2-0	W +1.14
10-02	Canisius vs Ferris State	-140 draftkings	62%	55%	4-0	W +0.71

Last season (from Feb 14): every bet (45)

Date	Bet	Odds	Model	Market	Score	Result
04-09	Wisconsin vs North Dakota	+160 draftkings	47%	35%	2-1	W +1.60
03-27	Penn State vs Minnesota Duluth	+114 draftkings	60%	44%	1-3	L −1
03-27	Bentley vs Michigan	+360 betrivers	27%	19%	1-5	L −1
03-27	Cornell vs Denver	+173 pinnacle	41%	34%	0-5	L −1
03-26	Quinnipiac vs Providence	-111 pinnacle	56%	50%	5-2	W +0.90
03-26	Wisconsin vs Dartmouth	-147 draftkings	65%	56%	5-1	W +0.68
03-20	Princeton at Cornell	+280 betrivers	34%	23%	3-2	W +2.80
03-20	Clarkson vs Dartmouth	+150 draftkings	58%	37%	0-4	L −1
03-14	Augustana at St. Thomas	+114 draftkings	57%	44%	1-2	L −1
03-14	Robert Morris at Sacred Heart	+210 draftkings	40%	29%	5-2	W +2.10
03-14	Minnesota Duluth at North Dakota	+175 draftkings	39%	33%	5-1	W +1.75
03-14	Michigan Tech at Minnesota State	+130 draftkings	56%	40%	2-7	L −1
03-14	Colgate at Dartmouth	+210 draftkings	43%	29%	1-4	L −1
03-13	Robert Morris at Sacred Heart	+190 draftkings	43%	32%	1-5	L −1
03-13	Clarkson at Quinnipiac	+325 draftkings	31%	20%	3-0	W +3.25
03-13	Colgate at Dartmouth	+195 draftkings	40%	31%	1-4	L −1
03-11	Ohio State at Wisconsin	+154 draftkings	45%	36%	7-1	W +1.54
03-11	Minnesota at Penn State	+160 draftkings	48%	35%	2-6	L −1
03-11	New Hampshire at Northeastern	+130 draftkings	51%	40%	3-7	L −1
03-11	Mass.-Lowell at Merrimack	+130 draftkings	50%	40%	3-5	L −1
03-07	St. Cloud State at Minnesota Duluth	+160 draftkings	45%	35%	1-2	L −1
03-07	Boston University at Mass.-Lowell	+122 pinnacle	69%	43%	3-4	L −1
03-07	Miami at Denver	+360 draftkings	27%	18%	2-6	L −1
03-07	Yale at Colgate	+180 draftkings	39%	33%	2-3	L −1
03-07	Union vs Brown	-400 draftkings	88%	77%	9-0	W +0.25
03-07	Bowling Green at Michigan Tech	+124 draftkings	49%	41%	2-3	L −1
03-07	Bemidji State at Augustana	+165 draftkings	40%	35%	1-2	L −1
03-06	Penn State vs Wisconsin	-134 pinnacle	66%	55%	2-5	L −1
03-06	Ohio State vs Notre Dame	-181 pinnacle	71%	62%	3-4	L −1
03-06	St. Cloud State at Minnesota Duluth	+160 draftkings	47%	35%	3-4	L −1
03-06	Michigan State at Minnesota	-162 pinnacle	72%	59%	3-3	Push
03-06	Miami at Denver	+360 draftkings	25%	18%	0-3	L −1
03-06	RPI at Clarkson	+195 draftkings	46%	31%	1-2	L −1
03-06	Bowling Green at Michigan Tech	+120 draftkings	48%	42%	3-5	L −1
03-05	Ohio State vs Notre Dame	-222 draftkings	72%	66%	4-5	L −1
03-05	Michigan State at Minnesota	-213 draftkings	73%	65%	7-1	W +0.47
02-28	Michigan State vs Ohio State	-400 draftkings	84%	77%	3-3	Push
02-27	Penn State at Notre Dame	-333 draftkings	79%	74%	3-3	Push
02-21	North Dakota vs St. Cloud State	-400 draftkings	83%	77%	6-4	W +0.25
02-21	Connecticut vs Boston College	+120 draftkings	54%	42%	1-2	L −1
02-20	Michigan at Wisconsin	-196 draftkings	71%	63%	1-4	L −1
02-14	Ohio State vs Wisconsin	+114 draftkings	56%	44%	3-2	W +1.14
02-14	Providence vs Northeastern	-250 draftkings	76%	68%	4-1	W +0.40
02-14	Michigan vs Penn State	-182 draftkings	69%	61%	6-3	W +0.55
02-14	Western Michigan vs Arizona State	-323 draftkings	84%	73%	7-2	W +0.31

Flat 1 unit on the model's side whenever the gap is 5+ points, at the last DraftKings price before puck drop (another book when DraftKings is missing); ties push. Last season counts only games after Feb 14, when the current model weights stop overlapping the games they're scored on. The model's number is a fitted mix of the original model and Elo, applied to every past pick; last season's picks use a fit that never saw that season. In testing it was about level with the market, not ahead of it.