First-quarter props

Updated Sat 2:20 PM ET · rebuilt automatically when new odds or results arrive

Week 9 · Nov 5 – Nov 9 · 24 still to grade
Week 9 · Edge ≥ 5 pts
0–2 -2.00u · ROI -100.0%
Season · Edge ≥ 5 pts
48–33 +9.11u · ROI +11.2%
Week 9 · All model-side bets
0–2 -2.00u · ROI -100.0%
Season · All model-side bets
119–124 -19.58u · ROI -8.1%
Earlier weeks
WeekRecordUnitsROI
8 Oct 29 – Nov 2 8–2 +4.97 +50%
7 Oct 22 – Oct 26 5–6 -1.58 -14%
6 Oct 15 – Oct 19 3–4 -1.38 -20%
5 Oct 8 – Oct 12 3–3 -0.36 -6%
4 Oct 1 – Oct 5 10–2 +6.72 +56%
3 Sep 24 – Sep 28 7–4 +2.23 +20%
2 Sep 17 – Sep 21 8–5 +2.00 +15%
1 Sep 9 – Sep 14 4–5 -1.49 -17%
WeekRecordUnitsROI
8 Oct 29 – Nov 2 15–13 +0.20 +1%
7 Oct 22 – Oct 26 16–12 +2.12 +8%
6 Oct 15 – Oct 19 12–16 -5.50 -20%
5 Oct 8 – Oct 12 14–16 -3.77 -13%
4 Oct 1 – Oct 5 21–11 +7.42 +23%
3 Sep 24 – Sep 28 13–19 -7.56 -24%
2 Sep 17 – Sep 21 14–17 -4.74 -15%
1 Sep 9 – Sep 14 14–18 -5.74 -18%

Only a few books post this market (3 seen so far), too few for a Q1 consensus. The model builds one: the full-game passing yards line from every book, times the historical first-quarter share (20.4% median).

Graded
243 of 268
28 pending · 5 void (no pass)
Model's side, every DK line
119–124
-19.58u · ROI -8.1% ± 12
Edge ≥ 5 pts
48–33
+9.11u · ROI +11.2%
Brier (lower is better)
0.249
DraftKings 0.250 · all 243 graded lines
Miss vs actual Q1 yards
23.2
model median · DK line 23.4
Brier on 5+ pt edges
0.239
DraftKings 0.250 · 81 lines where they disagree most
Miss on 5+ pt edges
23.5
model median · DK line 24.4
DK moved toward model
30 / 82
on 5+ pt edges, open to close · 52 away
DK Q1 line ÷ full-game
20.9%
model median 20.4%
Low-to-high gap
3.0 yds
average across 266 QB-games with 2+ books

When and where to bet

Each timing bets the quote with the best positive model EV, at DraftKings alone or the best book. Beat close: the bet got a better line than the same book's close, or the same line at a better price. Unmoved lines are left out.

TimingPricingBetsRecordUnitsROI Avg model EVBeat closeAvg line CLVBooks used
Open (12h+ out)DraftKings 136 68–55 +4.89 +4.0%± 17 +6.1% 53.8%119 moved of 123 +0.3 yds DraftKings 136
Open (12h+ out)Best book 157 74–69 -1.58 -1.1%± 16 +6.3% 67.8%118 moved of 142 +0.5 yds DraftKings 79, Hard Rock 29, theScore 49
Day before (12–36h)DraftKings 130 66–54 +4.05 +3.4%± 17 +6.2% 50.0%114 moved of 120 +0.1 yds DraftKings 130
Day before (12–36h)Best book 143 69–64 -0.50 -0.4%± 16 +6.5% 62.7%110 moved of 132 +0.2 yds DraftKings 80, Hard Rock 19, theScore 44
Close (last 6h)DraftKings 128 66–62 -4.08 -3.2%± 16 +6.3% n/a n/a DraftKings 128
Close (last 6h)Best book 145 72–73 -7.32 -5.1%± 16 +6.6% n/a n/a DraftKings 64, Hard Rock 19, theScore 62
BookQb-gamesFirst seenLatest line vs other books Move, first → latestHold
DraftKings 271 48h before kickoffmedian +1.1 yds266 shared QB-games +0.1 yds|move| 1.5 · 268 with 2+ quotes 6.4%
Hard Rock 268 81h before kickoffmedian +0.2 yds265 shared QB-games +0.1 yds|move| 1.2 · 264 with 2+ quotes 7.0%
theScore 235 48h before kickoffmedian -1.4 yds233 shared QB-games -0.1 yds|move| 0.7 · 228 with 2+ quotes 6.5%

Every line

Weeks 8+ and anything still to grade: 59 of 276 lines. Show the whole season

QBModel medianside vs DK close Q1 ydsResultDK closeDK open Full-game lineModel P(over)DK P(over)EdgeMove
Kyler Murray 2026-11-10 01:15 · BUF @ MIN
1 book
Low – high at openLatest
42.5Hard Rock · -115 / -11543.5Hard Rock · -115 / -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
Hard Rock 42.5 -115/-115 130h 43.5 -115/-115 105.1h 5
 — pending — not posted — none — — — —
Josh Allen 2026-11-10 01:15 · BUF @ MIN
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
48.5 – 49.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -11548.5 – 49.5low DraftKings O -116high Hard Rock U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 48.5 -116/-112 99h 48.5 -116/-112 98.9h 1
Hard Rock 48.5 -115/-115 130h 49.5 -115/-115 98.9h 6
theScore 49.5 -115/-115 105h 49.5 -115/-115 98.9h 2
 48.1Under 48.5 -112 pending — 48.5-116 / -112 — 236.02 books 49.3% 50.4% -1.1 —
Carson Wentz 2026-11-10 01:15 · BUF @ MIN
1 book
Low – high at openLatest
41.5Hard Rock · -115 / -11541.5Hard Rock · -115 / -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
Hard Rock 41.5 -115/-115 99h 41.5 -115/-115 98.9h 1
 — pending — not posted — none — — — —
Caleb Williams 2026-11-09 01:20 · TB @ CHI
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
53.5 – 54.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -11252.5 – 54.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -120
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 54.5 -115/-112 116h 53.5 -114/-114 48.0h 2
Hard Rock 53.5 -115/-115 116h 52.5 -115/-115 48.0h 2
theScore 54.5 -110/-120 48h 54.5 -110/-120 48.0h 1
 50.8Under 53.5 -114 pending — 53.5-114 / -114 54.5-115 / -112 249.55 books 46.8% 50.0% -3.2 toward
Baker Mayfield 2026-11-09 01:20 · TB @ CHI
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
39.5 – 41.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -11439.5 – 42.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -111
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 41.5 -113/-114 116h 42.5 -117/-111 48.0h 2
Hard Rock 41.5 -115/-115 116h 41.5 -115/-115 48.0h 2
theScore 39.5 -130/+100 48h 39.5 -130/+100 48.0h 1
 43.2Over 42.5 -117 pending — 42.5-117 / -111 41.5-113 / -114 211.55 books 51.4% 50.6% +0.8 toward
Jordan Love 2026-11-08 21:25 · GB @ NE
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
51.5 – 58.5low theScore O -155high DraftKings U -11651.5 – 58.5low theScore O -155high Hard Rock U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 58.5 -112/-116 73h 58.5 -112/-116 47.8h 2
Hard Rock 57.5 -115/-115 142h 58.5 -115/-115 47.8h 13
theScore 51.5 -155/+120 79h 51.5 -155/+120 47.8h 3
 55.9Under 58.5 -116 pending — 58.5-112 / -116 58.5-112 / -116 274.55 books 47.3% 49.6% -2.3 none
Gardner Minshew II 2026-11-08 21:25 · ARI @ SEA
2 books
Low – high at openLatest
34.5 – 35.5low DraftKings O -111high Hard Rock U -11534.5 – 35.5low DraftKings O -113high Hard Rock U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 34.5 -111/-116 68h 34.5 -113/-114 47.8h 2
Hard Rock 35.5 -115/-115 68h 35.5 -115/-115 47.8h 2
 40.7Over 34.5 -113 pending — 34.5-113 / -114 34.5-111 / -116 199.53 books 59.8% 49.9% +9.9 toward
Drake Maye 2026-11-08 21:25 · GB @ NE
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
47.5 – 49.5low DraftKings O -114high theScore U -12047.5 – 49.5low DraftKings O -112high theScore U -125
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 47.5 -114/-114 73h 47.5 -112/-115 47.8h 2
Hard Rock 48.5 -110/-120 142h 48.5 -115/-115 47.8h 13
theScore 49.5 -110/-120 79h 49.5 -105/-125 47.8h 3
 46.7Under 47.5 -115 pending — 47.5-112 / -115 47.5-114 / -114 229.04 books 48.6% 49.7% -1.1 toward
Kirk Cousins 2026-11-08 21:05 · LV @ SF
2 books
Low – high at openLatest
49.5 – 52.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -11649.5 – 51.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -113
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 52.5 -112/-116 68h 51.5 -114/-113 48.0h 2
Hard Rock 49.5 -115/-115 48h 49.5 -115/-115 48.0h 1
 50.8Under 51.5 -113 pending — 51.5-114 / -113 52.5-112 / -116 249.52 books 48.8% 50.1% -1.3 toward
Justin Herbert 2026-11-08 21:05 · HOU @ LAC
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
35.5 – 40.5low theScore O -155high Hard Rock U -11535.5 – 38.5low theScore O -120high Hard Rock U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 39.5 -116/-112 73h 36.5 -115/-113 48.0h 2
Hard Rock 40.5 -115/-115 117h 38.5 -115/-115 48.0h 9
theScore 35.5 -155/+120 79h 35.5 -120/-110 48.0h 3
 40.8Over 36.5 -115 pending — 36.5-115 / -113 39.5-116 / -112 199.54 books 56.7% 50.2% +6.5 away
C.J. Stroud 2026-11-08 21:05 · HOU @ LAC
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
49.5 – 54.5low theScore O -160high Hard Rock U -11549.5 – 53.5low theScore O -135high DraftKings U -114
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 54.5 -112/-115 73h 53.5 -114/-114 48.0h 2
Hard Rock 54.5 -115/-115 117h 52.5 -115/-115 48.0h 9
theScore 49.5 -160/+125 79h 49.5 -135/+105 48.0h 3
 50.4Under 53.5 -114 pending — 53.5-114 / -114 54.5-112 / -115 247.54 books 46.3% 50.0% -3.7 toward
Brock Purdy 2026-11-08 21:05 · LV @ SF
2 books
Low – high at openLatest
54.5 – 55.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -11354.5 – 55.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -112
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 55.5 -115/-113 68h 55.5 -116/-112 48.0h 2
Hard Rock 54.5 -115/-115 68h 54.5 -115/-115 48.0h 2
 50.0Under 55.5 -112 pending — 55.5-116 / -112 55.5-115 / -113 245.02 books 43.6% 50.4% -6.8 away
Tyler Shough 2026-11-08 18:00 · CLE @ NO
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
46.5 – 48.5low DraftKings O -113high theScore U -13047.5 – 48.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -114
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 46.5 -113/-115 77h 48.5 -113/-114 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 47.5 -115/-115 89h 47.5 -115/-115 23.9h 5
theScore 48.5 +100/-130 77h 48.5 -115/-115 23.9h 3
 46.1Under 48.5 -114 pending — 48.5-113 / -114 46.5-113 / -115 226.55 books 46.9% 49.9% -3.0 away
Shedeur Sanders 2026-11-08 18:00 · CLE @ NO
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
38.5 – 39.5low theScore O -110high DraftKings U -11437.5 – 38.5low Hard Rock O -120high DraftKings U -114
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 39.5 -114/-114 48h 38.5 -113/-114 23.9h 2
Hard Rock 39.5 -115/-115 48h 37.5 -120/-110 23.9h 2
theScore 38.5 -110/-120 24h 38.5 -110/-120 23.9h 1
 — pending — 38.5-113 / -114 39.5-114 / -114 none — 49.9% — —
Patrick Mahomes 2026-11-08 18:00 · NYJ @ KC
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
56.5 – 57.5low theScore O -115high DraftKings U -11456.5 – 56.5low DraftKings O -111high Hard Rock U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 57.5 -114/-114 77h 56.5 -111/-116 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 57.5 -115/-115 89h 56.5 -115/-115 23.9h 5
theScore 56.5 -115/-115 24h 56.5 -115/-115 23.9h 1
 50.0Under 56.5 -116 pending — 56.5-111 / -116 57.5-114 / -114 245.56 books 42.6% 49.5% -6.9 toward
Matthew Stafford 2026-11-08 18:00 · LA @ WAS
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
52.5 – 55.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -11252.5 – 52.5low DraftKings O -114high DraftKings U -113
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 55.5 -116/-112 77h 52.5 -114/-113 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 54.5 -115/-115 102h 52.5 -115/-115 23.9h 7
theScore 52.5 -130/+100 77h 52.5 -115/-115 23.9h 3
 51.4Under 52.5 -113 pending — 52.5-114 / -113 55.5-116 / -112 252.53 books 48.3% 50.1% -1.8 toward
Malik Willis 2026-11-08 18:00 · DET @ MIA
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
37.5 – 38.5low Hard Rock O -120high DraftKings U -11537.5 – 38.5low theScore O -125high Hard Rock U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 38.5 -112/-115 65h 38.5 -112/-116 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 37.5 -120/-110 65h 38.5 -115/-115 23.9h 3
theScore 37.5 -125/-105 24h 37.5 -125/-105 23.9h 1
 42.3Over 38.5 -112 pending — 38.5-112 / -116 38.5-112 / -115 207.55 books 55.7% 49.6% +6.1 away
Joe Milton 2026-11-08 18:00 · NYG @ PHI
2 books
Low – high at openLatest
38.5 – 38.5low DraftKings O -114high Hard Rock U -11037.5 – 38.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -113
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 38.5 -114/-113 71h 38.5 -115/-113 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 38.5 -120/-110 77h 37.5 -115/-115 23.9h 3
 — pending — 38.5-115 / -113 38.5-114 / -113 none — 50.2% — —
Jayden Daniels 2026-11-08 18:00 · LA @ WAS
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
39.5 – 42.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -11639.5 – 41.5low theScore O -125high Hard Rock U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 42.5 -111/-116 77h 40.5 -111/-116 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 41.5 -115/-115 102h 41.5 -115/-115 23.9h 7
theScore 39.5 -130/+100 77h 39.5 -125/-105 23.9h 3
 43.1Over 40.5 -111 pending — 40.5-111 / -116 42.5-111 / -116 211.53 books 54.0% 49.5% +4.5 away
Jared Goff 2026-11-08 18:00 · DET @ MIA
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
57.5 – 60.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -12557.5 – 60.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -125
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 59.5 -112/-115 65h 58.5 -112/-116 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 57.5 -115/-115 65h 57.5 -115/-115 23.9h 3
theScore 60.5 -105/-125 24h 60.5 -105/-125 23.9h 1
 52.7Under 58.5 -116 pending — 58.5-112 / -116 59.5-112 / -115 258.55 books 43.6% 49.6% -6.0 toward
J.J. McCarthy 2026-11-08 18:00 · NYG @ PHI
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
46.5 – 49.5low DraftKings O -114high theScore U -13046.5 – 49.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -120
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 46.5 -114/-114 71h 48.5 -113/-114 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 46.5 -115/-115 89h 46.5 -115/-115 23.9h 6
theScore 49.5 +100/-130 71h 49.5 -110/-120 23.9h 3
 42.6Under 48.5 -114 pending — 48.5-113 / -114 46.5-114 / -114 209.06 books 42.1% 49.9% -7.8 away
Geno Smith 2026-11-08 18:00 · NYJ @ KC
2 books
Low – high at openLatest
39.5 – 39.5low DraftKings O -113high Hard Rock U -11537.5 – 39.5low DraftKings O -116high Hard Rock U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 39.5 -113/-115 77h 37.5 -116/-111 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 39.5 -115/-115 89h 39.5 -115/-115 23.9h 5
 43.3Over 37.5 -116 pending — 37.5-116 / -111 39.5-113 / -115 212.54 books 58.5% 50.5% +8.0 away
Daniel Jones 2026-11-08 18:00 · DAL @ IND
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
39.5 – 43.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -11540.5 – 43.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -116
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 43.5 -113/-115 48h 43.5 -112/-116 23.9h 2
Hard Rock 39.5 -115/-115 89h 40.5 -115/-115 23.9h 9
theScore 42.5 +105/-135 77h 42.5 -115/-115 23.9h 7
 41.9Under 43.5 -116 pending — 43.5-112 / -116 43.5-113 / -115 205.51 book 47.6% 49.6% -2.0 toward
Dak Prescott 2026-11-08 18:00 · DAL @ IND
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
56.5 – 60.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -13557.5 – 60.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -130
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 57.5 -116/-112 48h 57.5 -116/-112 23.9h 2
Hard Rock 56.5 -115/-115 89h 57.5 -115/-115 23.9h 9
theScore 60.5 +105/-135 77h 60.5 +100/-130 23.9h 7
 52.7Under 57.5 -112 pending — 57.5-116 / -112 57.5-116 / -112 258.51 book 44.6% 50.4% -5.8 none
Bryce Young 2026-11-08 18:00 · DEN @ CAR
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
46.5 – 48.5low DraftKings O -114high theScore U -13042.5 – 45.5low theScore O -130high Hard Rock U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 46.5 -114/-114 76h 43.5 -115/-112 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 47.5 -115/-115 114h 45.5 -115/-115 23.9h 9
theScore 48.5 +100/-130 76h 42.5 -130/+100 23.9h 3
 47.6Over 43.5 -115 pending — 43.5-115 / -112 46.5-114 / -114 233.55 books 55.6% 50.3% +5.2 away
Bo Nix 2026-11-08 18:00 · DEN @ CAR
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
40.5 – 43.5low theScore O -130high Hard Rock U -11543.5 – 45.5low DraftKings O -114high theScore U -125
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 42.5 -116/-111 76h 43.5 -114/-113 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 43.5 -115/-115 114h 43.5 -115/-115 23.9h 9
theScore 40.5 -130/+100 76h 45.5 -105/-125 23.9h 3
 42.8Under 43.5 -113 pending — 43.5-114 / -113 42.5-116 / -111 209.55 books 48.6% 50.1% -1.5 away
Michael Penix Jr. 2026-11-08 14:30 · CIN @ ATL
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
42.5 – 43.5low theScore O -110high Hard Rock U -11542.5 – 42.5low DraftKings O -114high DraftKings U -114
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 42.5 -115/-113 105h 42.5 -114/-114 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 43.5 -115/-115 118h 42.5 -115/-115 23.9h 5
theScore 42.5 -110/-120 48h 42.5 -115/-115 23.9h 2
 45.6Over 42.5 -114 pending — 42.5-114 / -114 42.5-115 / -113 223.53 books 54.4% 50.0% +4.4 away
Joe Burrow 2026-11-08 14:30 · CIN @ ATL
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
59.5 – 59.5low DraftKings O -113high theScore U -10559.5 – 60.5low theScore O -125high DraftKings U -114
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 59.5 -113/-114 105h 60.5 -114/-114 23.9h 3
Hard Rock 59.5 -115/-115 111h 60.5 -115/-115 23.9h 4
theScore 59.5 -125/-105 48h 59.5 -125/-105 23.9h 2
 55.0Under 60.5 -114 pending — 60.5-114 / -114 59.5-113 / -114 270.02 books 44.1% 50.0% -5.9 away
Trevor Lawrence 2026-11-06 01:15 · JAX @ BAL
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
52.5 – 56.5low theScore O -140high DraftKings U -11352.5 – 56.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 56.5 -114/-113 81h 56.5 -112/-115 0.1h 9
Hard Rock 55.5 -115/-115 81h 53.5 -115/-115 0.1h 9
theScore 52.5 -140/+110 48h 52.5 -130/+100 0.1h 8
 47.8Under 56.5 -115 100 L -1.00u 56.5-112 / -115 56.5-114 / -113 234.57 books 40.0% 49.7% -9.7 toward
Joe Fagnano 2026-11-06 01:15 · JAX @ BAL
2 books
Low – high at openLatest
28.5 – 31.5low Hard Rock O -110high DraftKings U -11529.5 – 30.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -113
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 31.5 -112/-115 81h 30.5 -114/-113 0.1h 9
Hard Rock 28.5 -110/-120 24h 29.5 -115/-115 0.1h 7
 33.7Over 30.5 -114 7 L -1.00u 30.5-114 / -113 31.5-112 / -115 165.58 books 56.0% 50.1% +5.9 away
Sam Darnold 2026-11-03 01:20 · CHI @ SEA
2 books
Low – high at openLatest
48.5 – 49.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -11650.5 – 50.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -112
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 49.5 -112/-116 92h 50.5 -116/-112 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 48.5 -115/-115 92h 50.5 -115/-115 0.2h 9
 48.8Under 50.5 -112 37 W +0.89u 50.5-116 / -112 49.5-112 / -116 238.57 books 47.8% 50.4% -2.6 away
Caleb Williams 2026-11-03 01:20 · CHI @ SEA
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
43.5 – 44.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -11243.5 – 48.5low theScore O -125high DraftKings U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 44.5 -116/-112 92h 48.5 -112/-115 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 43.5 -115/-115 92h 45.5 -115/-115 0.2h 9
theScore 43.5 -130/+100 24h 43.5 -125/-105 0.2h 7
 46.4Under 48.5 -115 58 L -1.00u 48.5-112 / -115 44.5-116 / -112 228.08 books 47.4% 49.7% -2.3 toward
Tanner McKee 2026-11-02 01:20 · PHI @ WAS
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
37.5 – 39.5low theScore O -120high DraftKings U -11537.5 – 40.5low theScore O -135high DraftKings U -116
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 39.5 -112/-115 80h 40.5 -112/-116 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 38.5 -115/-115 92h 39.5 -115/-115 0.2h 10
theScore 37.5 -120/-110 48h 37.5 -135/+105 0.2h 8
 41.7Over 40.5 -112 55 W +0.89u 40.5-112 / -116 39.5-112 / -115 204.58 books 52.2% 49.6% +2.6 toward
Jayden Daniels 2026-11-02 01:20 · PHI @ WAS
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
43.5 – 49.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -14044.5 – 49.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -135
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 44.5 -113/-115 80h 46.5 -112/-115 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 43.5 -115/-115 92h 44.5 -115/-115 0.2h 10
theScore 49.5 +110/-140 48h 49.5 +105/-135 0.2h 8
 41.0Under 46.5 -115 26 W +0.87u 46.5-112 / -115 44.5-113 / -115 200.57 books 42.5% 49.7% -7.2 away
Patrick Mahomes 2026-11-01 21:25 · KC @ DEN
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
45.5 – 47.5low theScore O -120high DraftKings U -11446.5 – 49.5low Hard Rock O -120high theScore U -130
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 47.5 -114/-114 76h 47.5 -114/-113 0.0h 9
Hard Rock 47.5 -115/-115 92h 46.5 -120/-110 0.0h 10
theScore 45.5 -120/-110 24h 49.5 +100/-130 0.0h 7
 45.4Under 47.5 -113 60 L -1.00u 47.5-114 / -113 47.5-114 / -114 223.57 books 47.3% 50.1% -2.8 away
Malik Willis 2026-11-01 21:25 · NE @ MIA
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
30.5 – 34.5low theScore O -140high DraftKings U -11330.5 – 35.5low theScore O -140high DraftKings U -113
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 34.5 -114/-113 69h 35.5 -114/-113 0.5h 8
Hard Rock 34.5 -115/-115 69h 33.5 -120/-110 0.5h 8
theScore 30.5 -140/+110 48h 30.5 -140/+110 0.5h 7
 35.4Under 35.5 -113 15 W +0.88u 35.5-114 / -113 34.5-114 / -113 173.57 books 49.8% 50.1% -0.4 toward
Drake Maye 2026-11-01 21:25 · NE @ MIA
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
51.5 – 52.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -11551.5 – 54.5low theScore O -135high DraftKings U -114
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 52.5 -113/-115 69h 54.5 -114/-114 0.5h 8
Hard Rock 51.5 -115/-115 69h 53.5 -115/-115 0.5h 8
theScore 51.5 -120/-110 48h 51.5 -135/+105 0.5h 7
 48.1Under 54.5 -114 35 W +0.88u 54.5-114 / -114 52.5-113 / -115 236.58 books 42.5% 50.0% -7.5 —
Bo Nix 2026-11-01 21:25 · KC @ DEN
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
39.5 – 43.5low theScore O -140high DraftKings U -11644.5 – 49.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -130
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 43.5 -112/-116 76h 47.5 -112/-116 0.0h 9
Hard Rock 42.5 -115/-115 92h 44.5 -115/-115 0.0h 10
theScore 39.5 -140/+110 48h 49.5 +100/-130 0.0h 8
 42.5Under 47.5 -116 47 W +0.86u 47.5-112 / -116 43.5-112 / -116 208.58 books 43.2% 49.6% -6.4 away
Matthew Stafford 2026-11-01 21:05 · LAC @ LA
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
55.5 – 58.5low DraftKings O -112high theScore U -13055.5 – 58.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -120
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 55.5 -112/-116 67h 57.5 -115/-113 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 55.5 -115/-115 79h 55.5 -115/-115 0.2h 11
theScore 58.5 +100/-130 48h 58.5 -110/-120 0.2h 8
 51.1Under 57.5 -113 12 W +0.88u 57.5-115 / -113 55.5-112 / -116 250.58 books 42.8% 50.2% -7.4 away
Justin Herbert 2026-11-01 21:05 · LAC @ LA
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
38.5 – 40.5low theScore O -125high DraftKings U -11438.5 – 41.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 40.5 -114/-114 67h 41.5 -112/-115 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 39.5 -115/-115 79h 40.5 -115/-115 0.2h 11
theScore 38.5 -125/-105 48h 38.5 -130/+100 0.2h 8
 42.1Over 41.5 -112 40 L -1.00u 41.5-112 / -115 40.5-114 / -114 205.57 books 51.2% 49.7% +1.5 toward
Trevor Lawrence 2026-11-01 18:05 · IND @ JAX
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
55.5 – 56.5low theScore O -125high DraftKings U -11255.5 – 56.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -113
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 56.5 -116/-112 67h 56.5 -115/-113 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 56.5 -115/-115 67h 55.5 -115/-115 0.2h 9
theScore 55.5 -125/-105 6h 55.5 -120/-110 0.2h 6
 48.4Under 56.5 -113 72 L -1.00u 56.5-115 / -113 56.5-116 / -112 237.57 books 40.9% 50.2% -9.3 toward
Michael Penix Jr. 2026-11-01 18:05 · ATL @ TB
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
43.5 – 46.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -11243.5 – 45.5low theScore O -125high DraftKings U -112
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 46.5 -115/-112 73h 45.5 -116/-112 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 44.5 -115/-115 91h 44.5 -115/-115 0.2h 10
theScore 43.5 -130/+100 48h 43.5 -125/-105 0.2h 8
 46.0Over 45.5 -116 24 L -1.00u 45.5-116 / -112 46.5-115 / -112 226.58 books 50.9% 50.4% +0.5 toward
Lamar Jackson 2026-11-01 18:05 · BAL @ BUF
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
44.5 – 45.5low DraftKings O -111high theScore U -11047.5 – 49.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -125
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 44.5 -111/-116 73h 48.5 -111/-116 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 44.5 -115/-115 91h 47.5 -115/-115 0.2h 10
theScore 45.5 -120/-110 24h 49.5 -105/-125 0.2h 7
 49.0Over 48.5 -111 0 L -1.00u 48.5-111 / -116 44.5-111 / -116 240.57 books 50.8% 49.5% +1.4 toward
Kyler Murray 2026-11-01 18:05 · MIN @ DET
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
41.5 – 44.5low theScore O -130high Hard Rock U -11542.5 – 45.5low theScore O -125high Hard Rock U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 44.5 -112/-116 48h 44.5 -115/-113 0.2h 8
Hard Rock 44.5 -115/-115 48h 45.5 -115/-115 0.2h 8
theScore 41.5 -130/+100 48h 42.5 -125/-105 0.2h 8
 46.1Over 44.5 -115 46 W +0.87u 44.5-115 / -113 44.5-112 / -116 224.57 books 52.6% 50.2% +2.4 away
Josh Allen 2026-11-01 18:05 · BAL @ BUF
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
51.5 – 52.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -10552.5 – 53.5low theScore O -110high Hard Rock U -120
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 52.5 -111/-116 73h 52.5 -113/-114 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 51.5 -115/-115 91h 53.5 -110/-120 0.2h 10
theScore 52.5 -125/-105 48h 52.5 -110/-120 0.2h 8
 50.8Under 52.5 -114 76 L -1.00u 52.5-113 / -114 52.5-111 / -116 248.58 books 47.8% 49.9% -2.1 away
Joe Burrow 2026-11-01 18:05 · TEN @ CIN
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
61.5 – 63.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -11263.5 – 65.5low theScore O -120high DraftKings U -116
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 63.5 -116/-112 73h 65.5 -112/-116 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 61.5 -115/-115 91h 64.5 -115/-115 0.2h 10
theScore 63.5 -115/-115 48h 63.5 -120/-110 0.2h 8
 55.5Under 65.5 -116 38 W +0.86u 65.5-112 / -116 63.5-116 / -112 272.57 books 40.2% 49.6% -9.4 away
Jared Goff 2026-11-01 18:05 · MIN @ DET
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
51.5 – 56.5low theScore O -130high Hard Rock U -11551.5 – 53.5low theScore O -125high Hard Rock U -115
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 53.5 -116/-112 73h 52.5 -116/-112 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 56.5 -115/-115 125h 53.5 -115/-115 0.2h 10
theScore 51.5 -130/+100 73h 51.5 -125/-105 0.2h 9
 52.5Under 52.5 -112 66 L -1.00u 52.5-116 / -112 53.5-116 / -112 258.08 books 49.9% 50.4% -0.5 away
Daniel Jones 2026-11-01 18:05 · IND @ JAX
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
27.5 – 32.5low DraftKings O -111high theScore U -15032.5 – 37.5low theScore O -155high DraftKings U -116
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 27.5 -111/-117 67h 37.5 -112/-116 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 29.5 -115/-115 67h 36.5 -115/-115 0.2h 9
theScore 32.5 +115/-150 48h 32.5 -155/+120 0.2h 8
 39.2Over 37.5 -112 13 L -1.00u 37.5-112 / -116 27.5-111 / -117 192.58 books 53.1% 49.6% +3.6 toward
Cam Ward 2026-11-01 18:05 · TEN @ CIN
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
33.5 – 37.5low theScore O -115high Hard Rock U -11533.5 – 34.5low theScore O -125high DraftKings U -111
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 34.5 -113/-115 73h 34.5 -116/-111 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 37.5 -115/-115 91h 34.5 -115/-115 0.2h 10
theScore 33.5 -115/-115 24h 33.5 -125/-105 0.2h 7
 38.9Over 34.5 -116 109 W +0.86u 34.5-116 / -111 34.5-113 / -115 191.58 books 57.2% 50.5% +6.7 toward
Baker Mayfield 2026-11-01 18:05 · ATL @ TB
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
44.5 – 47.5low theScore O -125high DraftKings U -11243.5 – 45.5low DraftKings O -115high Hard Rock U -120
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 47.5 -115/-112 73h 43.5 -115/-112 0.2h 9
Hard Rock 45.5 -115/-115 91h 45.5 -110/-120 0.2h 10
theScore 44.5 -125/-105 48h 44.5 -110/-120 0.2h 8
 43.2Under 43.5 -112 0 W +0.89u 43.5-115 / -112 47.5-115 / -112 211.57 books 49.3% 50.3% -1.0 toward
Kirk Cousins 2026-11-01 18:00 · LV @ NYJ
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
48.5 – 49.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -11649.5 – 53.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -112
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 49.5 -112/-116 67h 53.5 -116/-112 0.1h 9
Hard Rock 48.5 -115/-115 88h 49.5 -115/-115 0.1h 11
theScore 49.5 -110/-120 48h 49.5 -135/+105 0.1h 8
 47.2Under 53.5 -112 59 L -1.00u 53.5-116 / -112 49.5-112 / -116 231.56 books 42.4% 50.4% -8.0 away
Jacoby Brissett 2026-11-01 18:00 · ARI @ DAL
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
48.5 – 51.5low DraftKings O -113high Hard Rock U -11549.5 – 51.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -114
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 48.5 -113/-114 73h 51.5 -113/-114 0.1h 9
Hard Rock 51.5 -115/-115 89h 49.5 -115/-115 0.1h 10
theScore 49.5 -105/-125 24h 49.5 -125/-105 0.1h 7
 52.0Over 51.5 -113 27 L -1.00u 51.5-113 / -114 48.5-113 / -114 256.58 books 50.6% 49.9% +0.7 toward
Geno Smith 2026-11-01 18:00 · LV @ NYJ
2 books
Low – high at openLatest
43.5 – 44.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -11646.5 – 47.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -116
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 44.5 -111/-116 67h 47.5 -112/-116 0.1h 9
Hard Rock 43.5 -115/-115 88h 46.5 -115/-115 0.1h 11
 45.9Under 47.5 -116 60 L -1.00u 47.5-112 / -116 44.5-111 / -116 225.57 books 47.8% 49.6% -1.8 toward
Deshaun Watson 2026-11-01 18:00 · CLE @ PIT
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
38.5 – 41.5low theScore O -150high DraftKings U -11238.5 – 42.5low theScore O -140high DraftKings U -111
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 41.5 -115/-112 79h 42.5 -116/-111 0.1h 9
Hard Rock 41.5 -115/-115 79h 41.5 -115/-115 0.1h 9
theScore 38.5 -150/+115 24h 38.5 -140/+110 0.1h 7
 41.9Under 42.5 -111 3 W +0.90u 42.5-116 / -111 41.5-115 / -112 206.56 books 48.8% 50.5% -1.8 away
Dak Prescott 2026-11-01 18:00 · ARI @ DAL
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
62.5 – 65.5low Hard Rock O -115high DraftKings U -11262.5 – 64.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -120
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 65.5 -115/-112 73h 63.5 -116/-112 0.1h 9
Hard Rock 62.5 -115/-115 89h 62.5 -115/-115 0.1h 10
theScore 64.5 -120/-110 48h 64.5 -110/-120 0.1h 8
 55.9Under 63.5 -112 10 W +0.89u 63.5-116 / -112 65.5-115 / -112 271.57 books 42.3% 50.4% -8.1 toward
Chris Smith II 2026-11-01 18:00 · LV @ NYJ
1 book
Low – high at openLatest
46.5theScore · +100 / -13046.5theScore · -120 / -110
BookFirstLatestQuotes
theScore 46.5 +100/-130 48h 46.5 -120/-110 0.1h 8
 — no pass — not posted — none — — — —
Aaron Rodgers 2026-11-01 18:00 · CLE @ PIT
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
47.5 – 49.5low DraftKings O -111high theScore U -13046.5 – 49.5low Hard Rock O -115high theScore U -130
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 47.5 -111/-116 48h 46.5 -116/-112 0.1h 8
Hard Rock 47.5 -115/-115 48h 46.5 -115/-115 0.1h 8
theScore 49.5 +100/-130 48h 49.5 +100/-130 0.1h 8
 43.9Under 46.5 -112 17 W +0.89u 46.5-116 / -112 47.5-111 / -116 216.08 books 46.5% 50.4% -3.9 toward
Jordan Love 2026-10-30 00:15 · CAR @ GB
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
54.5 – 56.5low theScore O -135high Hard Rock U -11554.5 – 59.5low theScore O -140high DraftKings U -116
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 56.5 -112/-116 32h 59.5 -112/-116 0.1h 8
Hard Rock 56.5 -115/-115 32h 58.5 -115/-115 0.1h 8
theScore 54.5 -135/+105 6h 54.5 -140/+110 0.1h 6
 53.9Under 59.5 -116 43 W +0.86u 59.5-112 / -116 56.5-112 / -116 264.58 books 43.9% 49.6% -5.7 away
Bryce Young 2026-10-30 00:15 · CAR @ GB
3 books
Low – high at openLatest
49.5 – 52.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -11549.5 – 52.5low theScore O -130high DraftKings U -113
BookFirstLatestQuotes
DraftKings 52.5 -113/-115 32h 52.5 -114/-113 0.1h 8
Hard Rock 52.5 -115/-115 32h 52.5 -115/-115 0.1h 8
theScore 49.5 -130/+100 6h 49.5 -130/+100 0.1h 6
 51.4Under 52.5 -113 53 L -1.00u 52.5-114 / -113 52.5-113 / -115 252.57 books 48.4% 50.1% -1.7 away
How it's priced

Each book's main full-game over/under is devigged and shifted to a median (σ 77 yds); the consensus is the median across books. The fair Q1 distribution is that consensus times the distribution of a starter's Q1 yards over his expected full-game yards, from 2489 starts in 2021–2025. Fitted on 2021–2024, its 10/25/50/75/90th percentiles caught 13%/26%/50%/75%/89% of 2025. One distribution serves every QB: the share only looks lower for high-volume passers when they're ranked by a noisy trailing average.

DraftKings record. Fixed before any game was graded (2026-09-11) and kept as it was: DK close = DraftKings' last snapshot before kickoff, devigged against itself; edge = model P(over) minus DraftKings'; 1 unit at DraftKings' price on the model's side. Shaded rows have an edge of 5+ points either way. Move = whether DraftKings moved toward the side the model preferred at its open.

Ranges. Low is the lowest line any book posts (the best number for an over), high the highest (best for an under); ties go to the better price. Open = each book's first captured quote, latest = its last quote before kickoff. Expand a player's books to see them.

Capture cadence. Lines are polled when first posted, at 48h and 24h before kickoff, then every 90 minutes inside 6h and every 30 minutes inside 2h. "First seen" is the first poll that found the line, which can trail the book's real open by up to 12 hours. Books other than DraftKings were added 2026-09-13, so earlier games show DraftKings only. Times are UTC.