Projected Final Standings
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of 972 remaining games
Atlantic Hockey Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bentley
|
15 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 53 | 41% | 29% | 18% | 7% | 94% | |
| 2 |
Sacred Heart
|
14 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 34% | 30% | 20% | 9% | 92% | |
| 3 |
Holy Cross
|
13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 2% | 4% | 9% | 17% | 32% | |
| 4 |
Robert Morris
|
13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 15% | |
| 5 |
RIT
|
11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 42 | 2% | 4% | 10% | 17% | 33% | |
| 6 |
Air Force
|
11 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 41 | 21% | 27% | 28% | 12% | 88% | |
| 7 |
Canisius
|
11 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 39 | 1% | 3% | 7% | 17% | 27% | |
| 8 |
Niagara
|
8 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 12% | |
| 9 |
Army
|
5 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4% | 6% | |
| 10 |
Mercyhurst
|
5 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 |
Long Island
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 |
Stonehill
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Big Ten Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Michigan State
|
14 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 1% | 22% | 71% | 6% | 100% | |
| 2 |
Michigan
|
13 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 49 | 6% | 71% | 22% | 1% | 100% | |
| 3 |
Penn State
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 85% | 91% | |
| 4 |
Wisconsin
|
11 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 39 | 94% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 |
Ohio State
|
7 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 6% | |
| 6 |
Minnesota
|
7 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 |
Notre Dame
|
2 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
CCHA Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Minnesota State
|
13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 51 | 13% | 22% | 23% | 22% | 80% | |
| 2 |
Augustana
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 50 | 18% | 24% | 25% | 19% | 86% | |
| 3 |
St. Thomas
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 50 | 2% | 7% | 14% | 22% | 45% | |
| 4 |
Bowling Green
|
12 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 16% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 82% | |
| 5 |
Michigan Tech
|
13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 51% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 96% | |
| 6 |
Bemidji State
|
6 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 36 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 11% | |
| 7 |
Lake Superior
|
7 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 |
Ferris State
|
5 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 |
Northern Michigan
|
3 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 |
Alaska
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 |
Alaska-Anchorage
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 |
Lindenwood
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
ECAC Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Quinnipiac
|
15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 79% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 |
Cornell
|
14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 2% | 22% | 52% | 15% | 91% | |
| 3 |
Dartmouth
|
13 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 47 | 0% | 1% | 10% | 26% | 37% | |
| 4 |
Princeton
|
11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0% | 1% | 10% | 30% | 41% | |
| 5 |
Union
|
10 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 18% | 57% | 21% | 3% | 99% | |
| 6 |
Harvard
|
11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 8% | 10% | |
| 7 |
Colgate
|
7 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 9% | 12% | |
| 8 |
Clarkson
|
7 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 8% | 9% | |
| 9 |
RPI
|
8 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | |
| 10 |
Yale
|
5 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 |
St. Lawrence
|
6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 |
Brown
|
4 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Hockey East Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Providence
|
16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 54 | 51% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 92% | |
| 2 |
Massachusetts
|
12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 43 | 26% | 26% | 17% | 12% | 80% | |
| 3 |
Connecticut
|
11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 3% | 8% | 12% | 14% | 37% | |
| 4 |
Boston College
|
12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 6% | 14% | 18% | 17% | 56% | |
| 5 |
Maine
|
9 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 3% | 7% | 11% | 13% | 34% | |
| 6 |
Boston University
|
9 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 2% | 6% | 10% | 12% | 30% | |
| 7 |
Northeastern
|
10 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | |
| 8 |
Merrimack
|
10 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 9% | |
| 9 |
Mass.-Lowell
|
8 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | |
| 10 |
New Hampshire
|
8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 9% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 51% | |
| 11 |
Vermont
|
8 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% |
NCHC Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
North Dakota
|
16 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 55 | 0% | 76% | 20% | 4% | 100% | |
| 2 |
Denver
|
15 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 52 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 |
Western Michigan
|
13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 48 | 0% | 21% | 59% | 16% | 95% | |
| 4 |
Minnesota Duluth
|
8 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0% | 3% | 15% | 50% | 67% | |
| 5 |
St. Cloud State
|
8 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 10% | 11% | |
| 6 |
Colorado College
|
5 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 |
Miami
|
6 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 0% | 0% | 5% | 21% | 27% | |
| 8 |
Omaha
|
8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 |
Arizona State
|
5 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
National Tournament Probabilities
| # | Team | Conference | Proj. Wins | Elo | NPI | P(Tournament) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Denver
|
NCHC | 56.4 | 1764 | 56.97 | 100% |
| 2 |
Wisconsin
|
Big Ten | 51.1 | 1728 | 55.69 | 100% |
| 3 |
North Dakota
|
NCHC | 45.2 | 1500 | 54.19 | 99% |
| 4 |
Western Michigan
|
NCHC | 42.4 | 1500 | 53.90 | 98% |
| 5 |
Michigan
|
Big Ten | 45.4 | 1500 | 53.71 | 96% |
| 6 |
Michigan State
|
Big Ten | 41.8 | 1500 | 53.75 | 96% |
| 7 |
Quinnipiac
|
ECAC | 44.0 | 1500 | 53.38 | 94% |
| 8 |
Providence
|
Hockey East | 41.4 | 1500 | 52.81 | 81% |
| 9 |
Minnesota Duluth
|
NCHC | 36.8 | 1500 | 52.52 | 73% |
| 10 |
Cornell
|
ECAC | 37.3 | 1500 | 51.98 | 53% |
| 11 |
Dartmouth
|
ECAC | 31.6 | 1500 | 51.93 | 52% |
| 12 |
Penn State
|
Big Ten | 35.8 | 1500 | 51.86 | 49% |
| 13 |
St. Thomas
|
CCHA | 34.6 | 1500 | 51.82 | 48% |
| 14 |
Connecticut
|
Hockey East | 34.7 | 1500 | 51.82 | 47% |
| 15 |
Michigan Tech
|
CCHA | 40.0 | 1500 | 51.73 | 43% |
| 16 |
Boston College
|
Hockey East | 37.5 | 1500 | 51.68 | 42% |
| 17 |
Miami
|
NCHC | 36.0 | 1500 | 51.59 | 40% |
| 18 |
Augustana
|
CCHA | 37.2 | 1500 | 51.57 | 38% |
| 19 |
Massachusetts
|
Hockey East | 40.1 | 1500 | 51.45 | 34% |
| 20 |
Northeastern
|
Hockey East | 32.0 | 1500 | 51.28 | 29% |
| 21 |
Princeton
|
ECAC | 32.3 | 1500 | 51.20 | 28% |
| 22 |
Maine
|
Hockey East | 35.2 | 1500 | 51.22 | 27% |
| 23 |
Minnesota State
|
CCHA | 35.3 | 1500 | 51.26 | 27% |
| 24 |
St. Cloud State
|
NCHC | 34.0 | 1500 | 51.23 | 26% |
| 25 |
Union
|
ECAC | 39.7 | 1500 | 51.17 | 25% |
| 26 |
Bowling Green
|
CCHA | 36.0 | 1500 | 51.00 | 20% |
| 27 |
Colorado College
|
NCHC | 26.7 | 1500 | 50.89 | 17% |
| 28 |
Bentley
|
Atlantic Hockey | 35.8 | 1500 | 50.92 | 17% |
| 29 |
Boston University
|
Hockey East | 34.7 | 1500 | 50.78 | 16% |
| 30 |
Merrimack
|
Hockey East | 33.1 | 1500 | 50.77 | 15% |
| 31 |
Alaska
|
CCHA | 20.9 | 1500 | 50.72 | 14% |
| 32 |
Lindenwood
|
CCHA | 18.8 | 1500 | 50.57 | 9% |
| 33 |
Ohio State
|
Big Ten | 27.7 | 1500 | 50.28 | 7% |
| 34 |
Air Force
|
Atlantic Hockey | 35.0 | 1500 | 50.25 | 6% |
| 35 |
Long Island
|
Atlantic Hockey | 17.2 | 1500 | 50.11 | 5% |
| 36 |
New Hampshire
|
Hockey East | 37.9 | 1500 | 50.03 | 4% |
| 37 |
Omaha
|
NCHC | 29.9 | 1500 | 49.97 | 4% |
| 38 |
Harvard
|
ECAC | 29.3 | 1500 | 49.87 | 4% |
| 39 |
RIT
|
Atlantic Hockey | 31.3 | 1500 | 49.86 | 4% |
| 40 |
Sacred Heart
|
Atlantic Hockey | 36.7 | 1500 | 49.96 | 4% |
| 41 |
Minnesota
|
Big Ten | 27.8 | 1500 | 49.74 | 3% |
| 42 |
Holy Cross
|
Atlantic Hockey | 30.7 | 1500 | 49.76 | 2% |
| 43 |
Canisius
|
Atlantic Hockey | 31.2 | 1500 | 49.57 | 2% |
| 44 |
Bemidji State
|
CCHA | 30.9 | 1500 | 49.51 | 1% |
| 45 |
Arizona State
|
NCHC | 26.0 | 1500 | 49.45 | 1% |
| 46 |
Clarkson
|
ECAC | 29.7 | 1500 | 49.37 | 1% |
| 47 |
Mass.-Lowell
|
Hockey East | 32.5 | 1500 | 49.30 | 1% |
| 48 |
Colgate
|
ECAC | 29.3 | 1500 | 49.13 | 0% |
| 49 |
Army
|
Atlantic Hockey | 26.0 | 1500 | 49.11 | 0% |
| 50 |
Robert Morris
|
Atlantic Hockey | 29.3 | 1500 | 49.00 | 0% |
| 51 |
Vermont
|
Hockey East | 30.3 | 1500 | 48.68 | 0% |
| 52 |
Alaska-Anchorage
|
CCHA | 8.0 | 1500 | 44.70 | 0% |
| 53 |
Brown
|
ECAC | 18.1 | 1500 | 46.56 | 0% |
| 54 |
Ferris State
|
CCHA | 23.4 | 1500 | 47.41 | 0% |
| 55 |
Lake Superior
|
CCHA | 25.0 | 1500 | 48.53 | 0% |
| 56 |
Mercyhurst
|
Atlantic Hockey | 5.0 | 1500 | 42.12 | 0% |
| 57 |
Niagara
|
Atlantic Hockey | 28.8 | 1500 | 48.05 | 0% |
| 58 |
Northern Michigan
|
CCHA | 18.3 | 1500 | 45.93 | 0% |
| 59 |
Notre Dame
|
Big Ten | 23.5 | 1500 | 48.10 | 0% |
| 60 |
RPI
|
ECAC | 28.0 | 1500 | 48.35 | 0% |
| 61 |
St. Lawrence
|
ECAC | 22.0 | 1500 | 46.19 | 0% |
| 62 |
Stonehill
|
Atlantic Hockey | 13.4 | 1500 | 46.22 | 0% |
| 63 |
Yale
|
ECAC | 22.8 | 1500 | 47.78 | 0% |