Projected Final Standings
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of 776 remaining games
Atlantic Hockey Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Army
|
5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13% | 24% | 42% | 13% | 91% | |
| 2 |
Bentley
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 43% | 34% | 16% | 4% | 98% | |
| 3 |
Holy Cross
|
2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 1% | 5% | 16% | 22% | |
| 4 |
Sacred Heart
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 43% | 36% | 15% | 4% | 98% | |
| 5 |
RIT
|
1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | |
| 6 |
Air Force
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 1% | 6% | 18% | 26% | |
| 7 |
Niagara
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1% | 3% | 9% | 21% | 33% | |
| 8 |
Robert Morris
|
1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 1% | 5% | 15% | 21% | |
| 9 |
Canisius
|
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 6% | 8% | |
| 10 |
Long Island
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | |
| 11 |
Stonehill
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% |
Big Ten Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Wisconsin
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 14% | 48% | 36% | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 |
Minnesota
|
0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 38% | 39% | |
| 3 |
Ohio State
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 32% | 34% | |
| 4 |
Penn State
|
0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 22% | 23% | |
| 5 |
Michigan
|
0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 80% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 |
Notre Dame
|
0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 |
Michigan State
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6% | 35% | 56% | 2% | 100% |
CCHA Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bowling Green
|
3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3% | 27% | 57% | 11% | 99% | |
| 2 |
Augustana
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 89% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 |
Bemidji State
|
1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 8% | |
| 4 |
Michigan Tech
|
1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7% | 61% | 28% | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 |
Ferris State
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 |
Lake Superior
|
0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | |
| 7 |
Minnesota State
|
0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 3% | 12% | 60% | 76% | |
| 8 |
Northern Michigan
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 |
St. Thomas
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 13% | 14% | |
| 10 |
Alaska
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 |
Alaska-Anchorage
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 |
Lindenwood
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
ECAC Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Union
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5% | 29% | 33% | 18% | 85% | |
| 2 |
Clarkson
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3% | 8% | 19% | 30% | |
| 3 |
Colgate
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 |
Dartmouth
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6% | 48% | 28% | 11% | 93% | |
| 5 |
Harvard
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 |
Quinnipiac
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 88% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 |
Yale
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 |
St. Lawrence
|
0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 |
RPI
|
0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | |
| 10 |
Brown
|
0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 |
Cornell
|
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 8% | 19% | 30% | 58% | |
| 12 |
Princeton
|
0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 2% | 8% | 16% | 27% |
Hockey East Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Vermont
|
3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 9% | |
| 2 |
Boston University
|
2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 50% | 26% | 15% | 5% | 97% | |
| 3 |
Connecticut
|
1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0% | 3% | 9% | 18% | 30% | |
| 4 |
Massachusetts
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1% | 4% | 10% | 19% | 34% | |
| 5 |
Merrimack
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25% | 30% | 25% | 11% | 90% | |
| 6 |
Providence
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 22% | 30% | 24% | 12% | 88% | |
| 7 |
New Hampshire
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 |
Boston College
|
0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 4% | |
| 9 |
Northeastern
|
0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 16% | |
| 10 |
Maine
|
0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1% | 4% | 8% | 16% | 29% | |
| 11 |
Mass.-Lowell
|
0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
NCHC Projected Standings
| # | Team | RW | RL | OW | OL | Conf Pts | P(1st) | P(2nd) | P(3rd) | P(4th) | P(Top 4) | Position Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Denver
|
3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 67% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 |
Miami
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | |
| 3 |
St. Cloud State
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | |
| 4 |
Arizona State
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | |
| 5 |
Colorado College
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4% | 10% | 24% | 50% | 88% | |
| 6 |
Minnesota Duluth
|
1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 12% | 16% | |
| 7 |
Omaha
|
0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 |
Western Michigan
|
0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23% | 46% | 21% | 8% | 99% | |
| 9 |
North Dakota
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6% | 21% | 43% | 24% | 94% |
National Tournament Probabilities
| # | Team | Conference | Proj. Wins | Elo | NPI | P(Tournament) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Michigan
|
Big Ten | 26.9 | 1841 | 60.00 | 100% |
| 2 |
Denver
|
NCHC | 26.4 | 1839 | 58.65 | 99% |
| 3 |
Western Michigan
|
NCHC | 24.9 | 1821 | 58.91 | 99% |
| 4 |
Quinnipiac
|
ECAC | 26.1 | 1712 | 58.10 | 99% |
| 5 |
Michigan State
|
Big Ten | 22.7 | 1776 | 57.12 | 93% |
| 6 |
Wisconsin
|
Big Ten | 23.0 | 1737 | 57.13 | 93% |
| 7 |
Augustana
|
CCHA | 25.9 | 1652 | 56.47 | 91% |
| 8 |
Boston University
|
Hockey East | 23.5 | 1709 | 56.67 | 90% |
| 9 |
North Dakota
|
NCHC | 23.2 | 1745 | 56.49 | 89% |
| 10 |
Dartmouth
|
ECAC | 22.1 | 1642 | 56.04 | 81% |
| 11 |
Colorado College
|
NCHC | 22.1 | 1666 | 55.57 | 76% |
| 12 |
Providence
|
Hockey East | 22.4 | 1696 | 55.66 | 75% |
| 13 |
Merrimack
|
Hockey East | 21.8 | 1667 | 55.32 | 71% |
| 14 |
Minnesota Duluth
|
NCHC | 17.6 | 1665 | 54.51 | 54% |
| 15 |
Northeastern
|
Hockey East | 17.1 | 1609 | 54.41 | 53% |
| 16 |
Michigan Tech
|
CCHA | 21.8 | 1580 | 54.30 | 49% |
| 17 |
Connecticut
|
Hockey East | 18.0 | 1648 | 53.96 | 42% |
| 18 |
Cornell
|
ECAC | 19.1 | 1602 | 53.50 | 34% |
| 19 |
Massachusetts
|
Hockey East | 18.4 | 1644 | 53.33 | 30% |
| 20 |
Maine
|
Hockey East | 17.6 | 1610 | 53.13 | 26% |
| 21 |
Union
|
ECAC | 20.7 | 1526 | 52.89 | 21% |
| 22 |
Bentley
|
Atlantic Hockey | 21.4 | 1533 | 52.90 | 21% |
| 23 |
Bowling Green
|
CCHA | 20.6 | 1550 | 52.99 | 20% |
| 24 |
Sacred Heart
|
Atlantic Hockey | 21.8 | 1516 | 52.61 | 16% |
| 25 |
Army
|
Atlantic Hockey | 19.7 | 1451 | 52.11 | 11% |
| 26 |
Ohio State
|
Big Ten | 14.3 | 1589 | 51.97 | 11% |
| 27 |
Princeton
|
ECAC | 17.6 | 1504 | 51.64 | 10% |
| 28 |
Harvard
|
ECAC | 15.1 | 1491 | 51.15 | 8% |
| 29 |
Minnesota
|
Big Ten | 14.1 | 1591 | 51.67 | 7% |
| 30 |
Boston College
|
Hockey East | 14.5 | 1609 | 51.60 | 7% |
| 31 |
Vermont
|
Hockey East | 15.5 | 1505 | 51.33 | 5% |
| 32 |
Minnesota State
|
CCHA | 16.0 | 1544 | 51.43 | 5% |
| 33 |
St. Cloud State
|
NCHC | 14.2 | 1539 | 50.83 | 3% |
| 34 |
Clarkson
|
ECAC | 17.3 | 1510 | 51.01 | 3% |
| 35 |
New Hampshire
|
Hockey East | 14.3 | 1513 | 50.72 | 3% |
| 36 |
Miami
|
NCHC | 15.1 | 1504 | 50.33 | 2% |
| 37 |
Arizona State
|
NCHC | 14.8 | 1539 | 50.31 | 1% |
| 38 |
Omaha
|
NCHC | 12.3 | 1508 | 49.48 | 1% |
| 39 |
Penn State
|
Big Ten | 13.4 | 1558 | 49.91 | 1% |
| 40 |
St. Thomas
|
CCHA | 14.1 | 1523 | 49.20 | 0% |
| 41 |
Alaska
|
CCHA | 11.7 | 1445 | 49.74 | 0% |
| 42 |
Holy Cross
|
Atlantic Hockey | 14.4 | 1423 | 49.44 | 0% |
| 43 |
Notre Dame
|
Big Ten | 11.4 | 1485 | 48.30 | 0% |
| 44 |
Air Force
|
Atlantic Hockey | 15.0 | 1394 | 48.37 | 0% |
| 45 |
Alaska-Anchorage
|
CCHA | 5.5 | 1198 | 42.81 | 0% |
| 46 |
Bemidji State
|
CCHA | 12.3 | 1407 | 47.80 | 0% |
| 47 |
Brown
|
ECAC | 6.5 | 1240 | 43.39 | 0% |
| 48 |
Canisius
|
Atlantic Hockey | 12.4 | 1349 | 47.43 | 0% |
| 49 |
Colgate
|
ECAC | 11.2 | 1386 | 45.91 | 0% |
| 50 |
Ferris State
|
CCHA | 9.1 | 1308 | 46.12 | 0% |
| 51 |
Lake Superior
|
CCHA | 10.5 | 1317 | 46.65 | 0% |
| 52 |
Lindenwood
|
CCHA | 10.2 | 1363 | 47.21 | 0% |
| 53 |
Long Island
|
Atlantic Hockey | 11.8 | 1349 | 46.25 | 0% |
| 54 |
Mass.-Lowell
|
Hockey East | 8.4 | 1405 | 45.70 | 0% |
| 55 |
Niagara
|
Atlantic Hockey | 15.2 | 1368 | 48.55 | 0% |
| 56 |
Northern Michigan
|
CCHA | 8.9 | 1244 | 45.01 | 0% |
| 57 |
RIT
|
Atlantic Hockey | 10.3 | 1305 | 45.75 | 0% |
| 58 |
RPI
|
ECAC | 13.6 | 1379 | 47.75 | 0% |
| 59 |
Robert Morris
|
Atlantic Hockey | 15.0 | 1381 | 48.20 | 0% |
| 60 |
St. Lawrence
|
ECAC | 6.7 | 1244 | 43.45 | 0% |
| 61 |
Stonehill
|
Atlantic Hockey | 11.6 | 1313 | 44.94 | 0% |
| 62 |
Yale
|
ECAC | 7.6 | 1285 | 45.24 | 0% |