Game quality

How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Josh Allen — 2026 Every split →

Adj EPA / dropback

+0.285

Raw EPA / dropback

+0.268

Dropbacks

222

Turnover EPA

-18.4

WPA

+1.50

Week	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
1	HOU	32	+0.547	+0.454	+0.093	+17.5	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-3.3	+0.65	+8.1
2	DET	33	+0.449	+0.456	-0.008	+14.8	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-1.8	+0.14	+5.7
3	LAC	30	+0.052	-0.014	+0.066	+1.6	2 / 1	-10.0	4	-9.1	-0.06	-0.9
4	NE	35	+0.174	+0.137	+0.037	+6.1	1 / 0	-1.7	1	-1.1	-0.01	+10.3
5	LA	21	+0.457	+0.399	+0.058	+9.6	1 / 0	-1.2	1	-1.9	+0.41	-1.4
6	LV	35	+0.249	+0.305	-0.056	+8.7	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-3.5	+0.46	+5.7
8	BAL	36	+0.140	+0.178	-0.038	+5.0	1 / 0	-5.5	1	-1.4	-0.09	-1.4

How the ratings are built

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.