Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Josh Allen — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.285
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.268
Dropbacks
222
Turnover EPA
-18.4
WPA
+1.50
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 32 | +0.547 | +0.454 | +0.093 | +17.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.65 | +8.1 |
| 2 | DET | 33 | +0.449 | +0.456 | -0.008 | +14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.14 | +5.7 |
| 3 | LAC | 30 | +0.052 | -0.014 | +0.066 | +1.6 | 2 / 1 | -10.0 | 4 | -9.1 | -0.06 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 35 | +0.174 | +0.137 | +0.037 | +6.1 | 1 / 0 | -1.7 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.01 | +10.3 |
| 5 | LA | 21 | +0.457 | +0.399 | +0.058 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -1.2 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.41 | -1.4 |
| 6 | LV | 35 | +0.249 | +0.305 | -0.056 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.46 | +5.7 |
| 8 | BAL | 36 | +0.140 | +0.178 | -0.038 | +5.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.09 | -1.4 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.