Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Dak Prescott — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.160
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.165
Dropbacks
316
Turnover EPA
-19.5
WPA
+1.20
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 34 | +0.304 | +0.305 | -0.001 | +10.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | +7.7 |
| 2 | WAS | 33 | +0.382 | +0.458 | -0.076 | +12.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.23 | +18.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 42 | +0.282 | +0.317 | -0.036 | +11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.0 | +0.32 | -3.8 |
| 4 | HOU | 48 | +0.286 | +0.205 | +0.081 | +13.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.1 | +0.65 | +3.3 |
| 5 | TB | 43 | -0.039 | -0.076 | +0.037 | -1.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.15 | -10.0 |
| 6 | GB | 56 | -0.157 | -0.149 | -0.007 | -8.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.3 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.21 | -3.1 |
| 7 | PHI | 27 | +0.477 | +0.446 | +0.031 | +12.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.44 | +0.6 |
| 8 | ARI | 33 | -0.008 | +0.098 | -0.107 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.2 | -0.18 | -5.0 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.