Game quality

How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Bryce Young — 2026 Every split →

Adj EPA / dropback

+0.086

Raw EPA / dropback

+0.059

Dropbacks

292

Turnover EPA

-22.3

WPA

+0.35

Week	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
1	CHI	39	+0.421	+0.398	+0.023	+16.4	1 / 0	-0.4	2	-4.0	+0.14	+6.6
2	ATL	38	+0.362	+0.291	+0.071	+13.8	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-2.7	+0.22	+11.6
3	CLE	50	-0.053	-0.117	+0.064	-2.7	1 / 0	-0.3	3	-5.4	-0.34	-2.7
4	DET	44	+0.456	+0.466	-0.010	+20.1	0 / 0	+0.0	3	-4.4	+0.69	+9.0
6	PHI	42	+0.115	+0.095	+0.020	+4.8	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-1.7	+0.09	-8.2
7	TB	32	-0.609	-0.635	+0.026	-19.5	2 / 1	-17.2	5	-13.6	-0.13	-15.7
8	GB	47	-0.169	-0.162	-0.007	-7.9	1 / 0	-4.4	6	-6.2	-0.32	-6.0

How the ratings are built

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.