Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jordan Love — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.138
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.141
Dropbacks
327
Turnover EPA
-29.1
WPA
+0.79
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 46 | +0.080 | -0.059 | +0.139 | +3.7 | 1 / 1 | -12.5 | 4 | -9.4 | +0.11 | -9.7 |
| 2 | NYJ | 32 | -0.238 | -0.099 | -0.139 | -7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -1.6 | -0.04 | -13.6 |
| 3 | ATL | 54 | +0.129 | +0.066 | +0.063 | +7.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.09 | -8.5 |
| 4 | TB | 30 | +0.277 | +0.230 | +0.047 | +8.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +5.3 |
| 5 | CHI | 34 | +0.522 | +0.497 | +0.025 | +17.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.5 | +0.16 | +16.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 44 | +0.000 | +0.138 | -0.138 | +0.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.14 | -5.2 |
| 7 | DET | 46 | +0.130 | +0.151 | -0.021 | +6.0 | 1 / 0 | -0.4 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.11 | -0.5 |
| 8 | CAR | 41 | +0.242 | +0.286 | -0.045 | +9.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +11.7 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.