Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kyler Murray — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.097
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.063
Dropbacks
169
Turnover EPA
-12.4
WPA
-0.20
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 5 | -0.893 | -0.894 | +0.000 | -4.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.07 | +6.4 |
| 3 | TB | 32 | -0.348 | -0.378 | +0.030 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.38 | -3.9 |
| 4 | MIA | 41 | -0.148 | -0.016 | -0.132 | -6.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.1 | +0.03 | +7.6 |
| 5 | NO | 31 | +0.265 | +0.270 | -0.004 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.01 | +11.8 |
| 7 | IND | 27 | -0.013 | -0.003 | -0.010 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.09 | -7.5 |
| 8 | DET | 33 | -0.076 | -0.050 | -0.026 | -2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.12 | -1.9 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.