Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jacoby Brissett — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.060
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.072
Dropbacks
322
Turnover EPA
-30.0
WPA
-0.42
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 38 | +0.311 | +0.237 | +0.074 | +11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.45 | +4.6 |
| 2 | SEA | 30 | -0.186 | -0.269 | +0.084 | -5.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.11 | -5.6 |
| 3 | SF | 53 | +0.190 | +0.211 | -0.021 | +10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.05 | +8.0 |
| 4 | NYG | 37 | -0.518 | -0.491 | -0.027 | -19.2 | 3 / 0 | -16.6 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.50 | -2.4 |
| 5 | DET | 51 | +0.040 | +0.061 | -0.022 | +2.0 | 1 / 0 | -0.2 | 5 | -10.3 | -0.06 | +0.9 |
| 6 | LA | 35 | +0.094 | +0.057 | +0.037 | +3.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.34 | +0.3 |
| 7 | DEN | 51 | -0.075 | -0.153 | +0.078 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | -0.17 | -4.7 |
| 8 | DAL | 27 | -0.670 | -0.529 | -0.141 | -18.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 4 | -7.1 | -0.40 | -13.1 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.