Draft Board

Expert consensus (FantasyPros ECR) with stock movement and analyst disagreement. Built from 32 snapshots; movement compares the last 4.

Consensus board may be stale. Last updated 2026-08-07 00:00 (5 days ago), past the 48h expected refresh. Capture runs daily at 12:00 UTC.
Redraft Dynasty Best ball All QB RB WR TE
#PlayerPosTeam ECR Move Range Excess
1 Josh Allen QB BUF 20.6 +1.6 7–39 -2.4
2 Drake Maye QB NE 24.6 +3.4 10–42 -2.3
3 Jayden Daniels QB WAS 33.2 +2.6 21–52 -1.1
4 Lamar Jackson QB BAL 37.2 -1.1 20–67 +0.5
5 Joe Burrow QB CIN 45.0 -1.6 28–68 -2.8
6 Caleb Williams QB CHI 46.0 +3.8 16–96 +5.8 CONTENTIOUS
7 Justin Herbert QB LAC 50.9 +1.6 36–87 +1.4
8 Patrick Mahomes II QB KC 51.6 +0.9 20–90 +2.5
9 Jalen Hurts QB PHI 56.4 -0.8 28–84 +0.5
10 Trevor Lawrence QB JAC 59.0 +3.4 45–90 -0.2
11 Brock Purdy QB SF 69.6 +1.1 58–108 +1.9
12 Jaxson Dart QB NYG 70.3 -4.4 55–117 +3.9
13 Bo Nix QB DEN 74.6 +3.2 56–99 +0.1
14 Dak Prescott QB DAL 84.4 +2.9 60–111 +0.7
15 Jordan Love QB GB 90.8 +0.9 72–110 -3.8
16 Jared Goff QB DET 106.5 +0.0 64–141 +3.0
17 Fernando Mendoza QB LV 112.7 +0.8 91–147 -0.7
18 Baker Mayfield QB TB 113.2 +2.2 86–141 -1.0
19 Cam Ward QB TEN 119.0 -1.6 109–141 -5.7
20 Tyler Shough QB NO 122.7 +8.6 110–142 -5.3
21 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 126.8 -0.5 96–159 -1.8
22 Kyler Murray QB MIN 131.2 -7.3 103–141 -6.9
23 Sam Darnold QB SEA 134.6 -2.2 106–151 -6.3
24 Malik Willis QB MIA 139.9 +2.8 111–174 -4.8
25 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 142.7 +1.0 112–168 -6.2
26 Bryce Young QB CAR 147.2 -4.9 111–167 -6.9
27 Daniel Jones QB IND 149.9 -0.8 139–191 -7.3
28 Ty Simpson QB LAR 157.5 -2.2 148–184 -10.2
29 Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL 178.5 -1.9 156–252 +3.0
30 Tua Tagovailoa QB ATL 192.7 +1.0 154–244 +8.4 CONTENTIOUS

Only one column here carries a tested signal. The rest is context. Everything below was measured over 296 position-weeks, 2021–2025.

Move — no predictive value
Change in consensus rank. Tested: correlation between movement and beating your own ranking is +0.02, surviving in one of five seasons and one of four positions. That is a null. The move is the consensus updating, so it is already priced. Shown because it is useful to know who is being talked about — not as a reason to draft anyone.
Excess — disagreement above normal for that slot
Analysts naturally disagree more about later picks (sd ≈ 6.72 + 0.0774 × ECR), so raw spread makes elite players look contentious when they are near-unanimous. This is the residual.
Contentious — the one tested edge, and it is small
Flagged only for QB and RB, where contentious players modestly beat their ranking (QB corr +0.088, t=3.08; RB +0.057, t=3.05). At WR and TE the same signal is exactly zero (+0.004 and +0.002), so they are never flagged — disagreement there is noise about a distribution everyone roughly agrees on.

Use it as a tiebreaker between players you already rate similarly, never as a reason to reach. The effect is worth a fraction of a round, per-season t-stats run 0.75–2.32, and the direction is consistent but the size is not well pinned down.