Draft Board

Expert consensus (FantasyPros ECR) with stock movement and analyst disagreement. Built from 45 snapshots; movement compares the last 4.

Consensus board updated 2026-11-06 00:00 (44 hours ago).
Redraft Dynasty Best ball All QB RB WR TE
#PlayerPosTeam ECR Move Range Excess
1 Josh Allen QB BUF 20.9 -1.4 7–36 -2.6
2 Drake Maye QB NE 25.4 +8.3 20–31 -6.8
3 Caleb Williams QB CHI 32.2 +8.3 14–45 -1.7
4 Joe Burrow QB CIN 36.4 -0.9 26–45 -5.1
5 Lamar Jackson QB BAL 37.0 -7.0 10–54 +3.4
6 Trevor Lawrence QB JAC 44.1 +10.1 23–54 -2.6
7 Jayden Daniels QB WAS 44.8 +1.5 27–63 -2.6
8 Patrick Mahomes II QB KC 46.8 +3.5 19–56 -1.2
9 Brock Purdy QB SF 47.8 +9.5 36–56 -5.6
10 Jalen Hurts QB PHI 69.0 -18.2 56–87 -1.6
11 Dak Prescott QB DAL 75.0 +4.2 49–111 +5.1 CONTENTIOUS
12 Jordan Love QB GB 75.2 +15.8 55–107 +3.8
13 Jared Goff QB DET 84.9 +19.6 56–109 +0.8
14 Bo Nix QB DEN 88.0 -16.8 70–110 -1.6
15 Justin Herbert QB LAC 89.8 -31.5 59–109 +2.8
16 Jaxson Dart QB NYG 91.1 +3.1 60–124 +6.7 CONTENTIOUS
17 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 95.1 +33.6 64–126 +7.1 CONTENTIOUS
18 Tyler Shough QB NO 104.2 -9.5 91–123 -7.3
19 Fernando Mendoza QB LV 106.3 +4.7 61–137 +6.6 CONTENTIOUS
20 Bryce Young QB CAR 113.0 +2.2 96–127 -7.9
21 Baker Mayfield QB TB 131.2 -1.2 111–142 -9.7
22 Sam Darnold QB SEA 133.8 -0.5 125–141 -13.6
23 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 140.1 -11.1 127–147 -14.4
24 Kyler Murray QB MIN 140.3 -7.8 126–166 -8.1
25 Cam Ward QB TEN 140.6 -1.3 127–150 -11.8
26 Malik Willis QB MIA 149.9 -12.6 137–168 -9.5
27 Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL 152.7 +16.6 136–182 -5.6
28 Daniel Jones QB IND 160.4 -8.4 147–173 -13.0
29 Ty Simpson QB LAR 166.1 -10.4 142–204 -0.6
30 J.J. McCarthy QB NYG 187.2 +13.8 150–224 +5.8 CONTENTIOUS
31 Geno Smith QB NYJ 196.0 -2.8 158–215 -4.9

Only one column here carries a tested signal. The rest is context. Everything below was measured over 296 position-weeks, 2021–2025.

Move — no predictive value
Change in consensus rank. Tested: correlation between movement and beating your own ranking is +0.02, surviving in one of five seasons and one of four positions. That is a null. The move is the consensus updating, so it is already priced. Shown because it is useful to know who is being talked about — not as a reason to draft anyone.
Excess — disagreement above normal for that slot
Analysts naturally disagree more about later picks (sd ≈ 8.05 + 0.0831 × ECR), so raw spread makes elite players look contentious when they are near-unanimous. This is the residual.
Contentious — the one tested edge, and it is small
Flagged only for QB and RB, where contentious players modestly beat their ranking (QB corr +0.088, t=3.08; RB +0.057, t=3.05). At WR and TE the same signal is exactly zero (+0.004 and +0.002), so they are never flagged — disagreement there is noise about a distribution everyone roughly agrees on.

Use it as a tiebreaker between players you already rate similarly, never as a reason to reach. The effect is worth a fraction of a round, per-season t-stats run 0.75–2.32, and the direction is consistent but the size is not well pinned down.