Draft Board

Expert consensus (FantasyPros ECR) with stock movement and analyst disagreement. Built from 32 snapshots; movement compares the last 4.

Consensus board may be stale. Last updated 2026-08-07 00:00 (5 days ago), past the 48h expected refresh. Capture runs daily at 12:00 UTC.
#PlayerPosTeam ECR Move Range Excess
1 Bijan Robinson RB ATL 3.8 +0.1 1–6 -5.5
2 Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET 4.5 +0.4 3–6 -6.0
3 Ashton Jeanty RB LV 9.5 +0.3 8–13 -6.1
4 Jeremiyah Love RB ARI 12.3 +2.7 9–16 -5.9
5 De'Von Achane RB MIA 15.1 +0.9 11–22 -5.0
6 Omarion Hampton RB LAC 16.1 +1.1 11–24 -4.4
7 James Cook III RB BUF 19.4 +2.1 15–29 -3.5
8 Jonathan Taylor RB IND 21.6 -1.8 10–37 -2.1
9 Kenneth Walker III RB KC 27.1 +3.6 21–49 -2.6
10 Breece Hall RB NYJ 35.1 -4.5 22–52 -0.6
11 Chase Brown RB CIN 38.5 +4.0 24–50 -4.1
12 TreVeyon Henderson RB NE 50.2 +3.4 39–68 -1.5
13 Saquon Barkley RB PHI 53.0 -1.1 34–66 -1.4
14 Quinshon Judkins RB CLE 53.8 -1.4 32–77 +0.1
15 Christian McCaffrey RB SF 55.2 -0.8 31–68 -0.5
16 Kyren Williams RB LAR 59.7 -1.4 46–74 -3.8
17 Travis Etienne Jr. RB NO 63.7 +1.2 50–75 -4.9
18 Cam Skattebo RB NYG 67.1 +0.2 52–81 -5.6
19 Jadarian Price RB SEA 68.2 +5.1 54–80 -3.2
20 Javonte Williams RB DAL 68.8 -0.3 52–86 -2.6
21 Bucky Irving RB TB 69.8 -4.7 45–87 +0.2
22 Derrick Henry RB BAL 80.6 -2.5 58–90 -4.8
23 Bhayshul Tuten RB JAC 82.7 +3.5 61–98 -2.7
24 Josh Jacobs RB GB 86.7 -8.2 55–124 +2.4
25 D'Andre Swift RB CHI 88.8 +2.0 80–98 -8.7
26 David Montgomery RB HOU 95.2 +2.8 78–120 -4.4
27 RJ Harvey RB DEN 108.1 -0.8 74–139 -0.3
28 Jaylen Warren RB PIT 112.9 +5.9 90–132 -1.8
29 Kyle Monangai RB CHI 116.5 +8.9 96–146 -0.5
30 Blake Corum RB LAR 119.2 +9.6 89–141 -1.9
31 Zach Charbonnet RB SEA 122.8 -0.0 87–156 +1.0
32 Jonathon Brooks RB CAR 124.5 +16.9 88–165 +6.4 CONTENTIOUS
33 Rhamondre Stevenson RB NE 127.8 +2.3 95–154 +0.3
34 Chuba Hubbard RB CAR 130.2 -6.5 100–162 +0.7
35 Rico Dowdle RB PIT 135.4 -2.1 108–156 -7.0
36 Jonah Coleman RB DEN 142.8 +1.4 100–190 +4.6
37 Tony Pollard RB TEN 143.1 -5.0 123–164 -6.1
38 Kenny Gainwell RB TB 147.2 +2.2 117–178 -5.2
39 Rachaad White RB WAS 154.1 +7.0 127–168 -7.3
40 J.K. Dobbins RB DEN 155.5 -2.2 123–182 -4.5
41 Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB WAS 160.9 -3.4 128–185 -4.1
42 Woody Marks RB HOU 164.8 -0.2 128–197 -1.9
43 Tyler Allgeier RB ARI 165.5 +1.8 135–200 -2.1
44 Nicholas Singleton RB TEN 170.2 +3.2 132–226 +2.5
45 Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB NYG 171.0 -4.4 143–203 -4.5
46 Jordan Mason RB MIN 171.4 +3.2 146–197 -4.2
47 Emmett Johnson RB KC 179.4 +5.9 140–200 -5.9
48 Dylan Sampson RB CLE 181.5 +0.2 160–252 +1.4
49 Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB JAC 183.0 +1.1 130–220 +3.2
50 Aaron Jones Sr. RB MIN 192.5 -8.3 157–223 -2.9
51 Kaytron Allen RB WAS 200.3 -3.6 136–274 +6.2 CONTENTIOUS
52 Keaton Mitchell RB LAC 201.9 +7.5 165–298 +7.0 CONTENTIOUS
53 Tyjae Spears RB TEN 202.9 -7.2 173–271 +3.8

Only one column here carries a tested signal. The rest is context. Everything below was measured over 296 position-weeks, 2021–2025.

Move — no predictive value
Change in consensus rank. Tested: correlation between movement and beating your own ranking is +0.02, surviving in one of five seasons and one of four positions. That is a null. The move is the consensus updating, so it is already priced. Shown because it is useful to know who is being talked about — not as a reason to draft anyone.
Excess — disagreement above normal for that slot
Analysts naturally disagree more about later picks (sd ≈ 6.72 + 0.0774 × ECR), so raw spread makes elite players look contentious when they are near-unanimous. This is the residual.
Contentious — the one tested edge, and it is small
Flagged only for QB and RB, where contentious players modestly beat their ranking (QB corr +0.088, t=3.08; RB +0.057, t=3.05). At WR and TE the same signal is exactly zero (+0.004 and +0.002), so they are never flagged — disagreement there is noise about a distribution everyone roughly agrees on.

Use it as a tiebreaker between players you already rate similarly, never as a reason to reach. The effect is worth a fraction of a round, per-season t-stats run 0.75–2.32, and the direction is consistent but the size is not well pinned down.