Draft Board

Expert consensus (FantasyPros ECR) with stock movement and analyst disagreement. Built from 45 snapshots; movement compares the last 4.

Consensus board updated 2026-11-06 00:00 (44 hours ago).
Redraft Dynasty Best ball All QB RB WR TE
#PlayerPosTeam ECR Move Range Excess
1 Josh Allen QB BUF 25.0 +0.0 25–25 —
2 Joe Burrow QB CIN 28.8 +25.2 27–30 -7.8
3 Drake Maye QB NE 35.2 +47.3 27–59 +2.4
4 Brock Purdy QB SF 43.8 -13.1 37–54 -1.7
5 Caleb Williams QB CHI 53.4 +33.9 37–63 -1.6
6 Jared Goff QB DET 57.6 +15.9 37–70 +0.3
7 Trevor Lawrence QB JAC 58.6 -9.4 54–63 -6.7
8 Jordan Love QB GB 73.4 +31.4 70–79 -8.2
9 Dak Prescott QB DAL 74.8 -13.6 63–92 -1.6
10 Patrick Mahomes II QB KC 82.6 -21.9 70–98 -1.3
11 Jayden Daniels QB WAS 88.0 +16.0 79–98 -4.6
12 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 93.6 +0.1 79–101 -4.7
13 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 101.8 +18.2 98–105 -10.4
14 Bryce Young QB CAR 102.4 -2.4 98–108 -9.6
15 Tyler Shough QB NO 104.6 -9.3 104–105 -12.6
16 Malik Willis QB MIA 113.4 +22.3 104–129 -5.0
17 Bo Nix QB DEN 116.6 -1.3 108–129 -4.9
18 Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL 118.0 +45.0 114–129 -7.9
19 Aaron Rodgers QB PIT 118.8 +80.4 113–129 -8.1
20 Kyler Murray QB MIN 132.4 +5.4 125–153 -3.6
21 Sam Darnold QB SEA 133.2 -8.0 125–139 -9.0
22 Geno Smith QB NYJ 133.4 +14.6 114–153 +0.7
23 Kirk Cousins QB LV 140.2 +21.1 125–159 -0.8
24 Baker Mayfield QB TB 146.6 +42.1 134–179 +1.7
25 Deshaun Watson QB CLE 166.4 +84.9 147–214 +8.1 CONTENTIOUS
26 J.J. McCarthy QB NYG 166.6 +144.2 134–214 +11.8 CONTENTIOUS
27 Justin Herbert QB LAC 168.8 -44.8 139–214 +9.7 CONTENTIOUS
28 Jacoby Brissett QB ARI 189.2 -40.7 139–255 +23.9 CONTENTIOUS

Only one column here carries a tested signal. The rest is context. Everything below was measured over 296 position-weeks, 2021–2025.

Move — no predictive value
Change in consensus rank. Tested: correlation between movement and beating your own ranking is +0.02, surviving in one of five seasons and one of four positions. That is a null. The move is the consensus updating, so it is already priced. Shown because it is useful to know who is being talked about — not as a reason to draft anyone.
Excess — disagreement above normal for that slot
Analysts naturally disagree more about later picks (sd ≈ 7.83 + 0.05 × ECR), so raw spread makes elite players look contentious when they are near-unanimous. This is the residual.
Contentious — the one tested edge, and it is small
Flagged only for QB and RB, where contentious players modestly beat their ranking (QB corr +0.088, t=3.08; RB +0.057, t=3.05). At WR and TE the same signal is exactly zero (+0.004 and +0.002), so they are never flagged — disagreement there is noise about a distribution everyone roughly agrees on.

Use it as a tiebreaker between players you already rate similarly, never as a reason to reach. The effect is worth a fraction of a round, per-season t-stats run 0.75–2.32, and the direction is consistent but the size is not well pinned down.