Draft Board
Expert consensus (FantasyPros ECR) with stock movement and analyst disagreement. Built from 32 snapshots; movement compares the last 4.
Consensus board may be stale.
Last updated 2026-08-07 00:00 (5 days ago), past the
48h expected refresh.
Capture runs daily at 12:00 UTC.
| # | Player | Pos | Team | ECR | Move | Range | Excess | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 19.1 | -0.7 | 15–32 | -4.9 | |
| 2 | Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 20.4 | +0.7 | 11–32 | -6.9 | |
| 3 | Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 37.3 | +0.2 | 22–85 | +1.0 | |
| 4 | Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 53.7 | -0.6 | 22–73 | -2.8 | |
| 5 | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE | 75.1 | -0.4 | 54–112 | -3.7 | |
| 6 | Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 75.6 | -2.8 | 32–112 | -2.2 | |
| 7 | Kyle Pitts Sr. | TE | ATL | 80.4 | -0.1 | 63–106 | -5.1 | |
| 8 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 84.6 | +1.6 | 57–106 | -4.3 | |
| 9 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 98.1 | +1.1 | 66–138 | -4.2 | |
| 10 | George Kittle | TE | SF | 106.2 | +5.5 | 73–155 | +0.0 | |
| 11 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | 110.8 | -4.3 | 73–157 | -2.3 | |
| 12 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 114.7 | -4.6 | 95–158 | -1.8 | |
| 13 | Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 122.4 | +0.1 | 95–196 | +2.3 | |
| 14 | Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 122.6 | -6.5 | 87–254 | +13.9 | |
| 15 | Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 125.7 | +9.6 | 95–203 | +1.4 | |
| 16 | Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 148.3 | -7.1 | 106–203 | +1.4 | |
| 17 | Chig Okonkwo | TE | WAS | 151.7 | +17.3 | 97–261 | +9.2 | |
| 18 | Brenton Strange | TE | JAC | 154.4 | -0.9 | 106–236 | +2.8 | |
| 19 | Hunter Henry | TE | NE | 163.9 | -2.5 | 106–230 | +2.5 | |
| 20 | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | LAC | 174.1 | -15.7 | 97–254 | +14.8 | |
| 21 | Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 181.0 | -5.6 | 131–236 | -1.2 | |
| 22 | T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 191.5 | -5.5 | 124–246 | -1.0 | |
| 23 | AJ Barner | TE | SEA | 207.2 | +2.6 | 138–256 | -1.7 | |
| 24 | Greg Dulcich | TE | MIA | 207.3 | +18.5 | 124–281 | +15.4 | |
| 25 | Kenyon Sadiq | TE | NYJ | 211.1 | -7.0 | 138–395 | +15.4 | |
| 26 | Gunnar Helm | TE | TEN | 217.9 | +4.5 | 157–334 | +4.2 |
Only one column here carries a tested signal. The rest is context. Everything below was measured over 296 position-weeks, 2021–2025.
- Move — no predictive value
- Change in consensus rank. Tested: correlation between movement and beating your own ranking is +0.02, surviving in one of five seasons and one of four positions. That is a null. The move is the consensus updating, so it is already priced. Shown because it is useful to know who is being talked about — not as a reason to draft anyone.
- Excess — disagreement above normal for that slot
- Analysts naturally disagree more about later picks (sd ≈ 8.38 + 0.0831 × ECR), so raw spread makes elite players look contentious when they are near-unanimous. This is the residual.
- Contentious — the one tested edge, and it is small
-
Flagged only for QB and RB, where contentious players modestly beat
their ranking (QB corr +0.088, t=3.08; RB +0.057, t=3.05). At
WR and TE the same signal is exactly zero (+0.004 and +0.002), so
they are never flagged — disagreement there is noise about a distribution
everyone roughly agrees on.
Use it as a tiebreaker between players you already rate similarly, never as a reason to reach. The effect is worth a fraction of a round, per-season t-stats run 0.75–2.32, and the direction is consistent but the size is not well pinned down.