Draft Board
Expert consensus (FantasyPros ECR) with stock movement and analyst disagreement. Built from 32 snapshots; movement compares the last 4.
Consensus board may be stale.
Last updated 2026-08-07 00:00 (5 days ago), past the
48h expected refresh.
Capture runs daily at 12:00 UTC.
| # | Player | Pos | Team | ECR | Move | Range | Excess | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brock Bowers | TE | LV | 18.3 | -3.0 | 12–23 | -4.9 | |
| 2 | Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 27.5 | -3.2 | 22–34 | -5.9 | |
| 3 | Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | 51.0 | -14.2 | 26–102 | +13.3 | |
| 4 | Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 62.7 | -6.8 | 56–71 | -6.7 | |
| 5 | Tucker Kraft | TE | GB | 65.5 | +9.3 | 42–80 | -1.5 | |
| 6 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | 84.8 | -3.2 | 75–93 | -9.0 | |
| 7 | Kyle Pitts Sr. | TE | ATL | 94.0 | -8.5 | 84–113 | -6.3 | |
| 8 | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE | 97.3 | -11.7 | 76–114 | -2.6 | |
| 9 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 97.5 | +2.0 | 77–121 | -2.8 | |
| 10 | George Kittle | TE | SF | 100.0 | +5.0 | 60–120 | +3.1 | |
| 11 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 107.7 | +14.3 | 79–142 | +2.8 | |
| 12 | Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 119.7 | +11.7 | 91–134 | -3.1 | |
| 13 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | 124.8 | -1.2 | 98–157 | -0.8 | |
| 14 | Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | 127.8 | +3.7 | 100–174 | +4.4 | |
| 15 | Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | 130.8 | -20.2 | 87–210 | +20.0 | |
| 16 | Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | 146.7 | +9.8 | 116–167 | -1.7 | |
| 17 | Chig Okonkwo | TE | WAS | 152.2 | -9.0 | 110–203 | +8.6 | |
| 18 | Greg Dulcich | TE | MIA | 155.5 | +5.0 | 112–188 | +4.0 | |
| 19 | Brenton Strange | TE | JAC | 155.7 | -7.0 | 128–194 | -1.4 | |
| 20 | Hunter Henry | TE | NE | 162.7 | +1.2 | 133–187 | -2.9 | |
| 21 | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | LAC | 163.8 | -8.7 | 123–215 | +3.4 | |
| 22 | Kenyon Sadiq | TE | NYJ | 164.7 | -6.8 | 123–216 | +11.3 | |
| 23 | Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 164.8 | +0.3 | 143–210 | -2.0 | |
| 24 | T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 174.8 | -5.2 | 143–202 | -3.0 | |
| 25 | AJ Barner | TE | SEA | 179.0 | +0.0 | 146–228 | +9.2 | |
| 26 | Cade Otton | TE | TB | 193.5 | +12.2 | 154–229 | -0.3 | |
| 27 | Terrance Ferguson | TE | LAR | 204.3 | +25.7 | 167–280 | +8.0 |
Only one column here carries a tested signal. The rest is context. Everything below was measured over 296 position-weeks, 2021–2025.
- Move — no predictive value
- Change in consensus rank. Tested: correlation between movement and beating your own ranking is +0.02, surviving in one of five seasons and one of four positions. That is a null. The move is the consensus updating, so it is already priced. Shown because it is useful to know who is being talked about — not as a reason to draft anyone.
- Excess — disagreement above normal for that slot
- Analysts naturally disagree more about later picks (sd ≈ 6.7 + 0.1035 × ECR), so raw spread makes elite players look contentious when they are near-unanimous. This is the residual.
- Contentious — the one tested edge, and it is small
-
Flagged only for QB and RB, where contentious players modestly beat
their ranking (QB corr +0.088, t=3.08; RB +0.057, t=3.05). At
WR and TE the same signal is exactly zero (+0.004 and +0.002), so
they are never flagged — disagreement there is noise about a distribution
everyone roughly agrees on.
Use it as a tiebreaker between players you already rate similarly, never as a reason to reach. The effect is worth a fraction of a round, per-season t-stats run 0.75–2.32, and the direction is consistent but the size is not well pinned down.