Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Quarterbacks, 2026
Dropback-weighted season totals. Click a column to sort, a name for the game log. Adj EPA/dropback is the number to compare players on; schedule shows how much of the gap from raw is opponents.
| Quarterback | Team | Games | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 8 | 237 | +0.338 | +0.303 | +0.034 | +80.1 | 4 / 1 | -20.9 | 13 | -25.1 | +1.88 | +3.3 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 7 | 217 | +0.303 | +0.291 | +0.013 | +65.8 | 4 / 0 | -19.3 | 7 | -13.7 | +1.67 | +4.3 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 7 | 222 | +0.285 | +0.268 | +0.018 | +63.3 | 5 / 1 | -18.4 | 13 | -22.1 | +1.50 | +4.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 7 | 281 | +0.251 | +0.242 | +0.009 | +70.6 | 6 / 1 | -33.2 | 13 | -22.3 | +1.94 | +8.9 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 7 | 264 | +0.250 | +0.266 | -0.016 | +66.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 16 | -26.5 | +1.52 | +1.2 |
| Drake Maye | NE | 8 | 250 | +0.218 | +0.214 | +0.003 | +54.4 | 8 / 2 | -43.8 | 16 | -28.6 | +0.65 | +7.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | 8 | 296 | +0.188 | +0.185 | +0.003 | +55.8 | 5 / 0 | -19.8 | 11 | -14.1 | +1.82 | -0.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 7 | 242 | +0.163 | +0.138 | +0.026 | +39.5 | 4 / 0 | -19.0 | 9 | -15.8 | +0.70 | +1.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 8 | 316 | +0.160 | +0.165 | -0.005 | +50.6 | 5 / 0 | -19.5 | 11 | -16.1 | +1.20 | +0.3 |
| Jordan Love | GB | 8 | 327 | +0.138 | +0.141 | -0.004 | +45.0 | 6 / 1 | -29.1 | 14 | -20.0 | +0.79 | -1.2 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | 8 | 264 | +0.127 | +0.146 | -0.019 | +33.5 | 3 / 2 | -20.6 | 23 | -43.1 | +0.34 | +5.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | 8 | 314 | +0.102 | +0.093 | +0.009 | +32.0 | 8 / 0 | -34.8 | 12 | -19.4 | +0.87 | +0.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 7 | 259 | +0.100 | +0.122 | -0.021 | +26.0 | 1 / 2 | -13.0 | 15 | -28.4 | +0.84 | +2.3 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | 7 | 292 | +0.086 | +0.059 | +0.026 | +25.0 | 5 / 1 | -22.3 | 23 | -37.9 | +0.35 | -0.6 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | 7 | 288 | +0.022 | +0.018 | +0.004 | +6.2 | 6 / 3 | -44.7 | 15 | -35.4 | +0.33 | +0.1 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | 8 | 263 | +0.012 | -0.011 | +0.024 | +3.2 | 3 / 1 | -16.2 | 10 | -14.3 | +0.76 | -2.8 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | 8 | 283 | -0.040 | -0.016 | -0.024 | -11.2 | 3 / 2 | -22.6 | 33 | -51.6 | +0.38 | -0.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 8 | 322 | -0.060 | -0.072 | +0.011 | -19.4 | 7 / 0 | -30.0 | 19 | -32.8 | -0.42 | -0.6 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | 7 | 228 | -0.062 | -0.071 | +0.009 | -14.1 | 9 / 0 | -45.8 | 17 | -23.5 | -0.57 | -2.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 8 | 308 | -0.073 | -0.095 | +0.023 | -22.3 | 6 / 1 | -26.6 | 23 | -45.7 | -0.57 | -1.9 |
| Malik Willis | MIA | 7 | 205 | -0.082 | -0.069 | -0.013 | -16.8 | 5 / 2 | -24.8 | 21 | -38.5 | -0.35 | -5.2 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | 8 | 263 | -0.090 | -0.074 | -0.016 | -23.7 | 5 / 1 | -30.9 | 13 | -25.0 | -1.25 | -0.6 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | 8 | 289 | -0.180 | -0.182 | +0.002 | -51.9 | 9 / 3 | -61.1 | 22 | -48.3 | -1.06 | -3.9 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 7 | 233 | -0.253 | -0.261 | +0.008 | -59.1 | 10 / 2 | -60.1 | 23 | -42.4 | -1.66 | -4.3 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.