Game quality

How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Brock Purdy — 2026 Every split →

Adj EPA / dropback

+0.303

Raw EPA / dropback

+0.291

Dropbacks

217

Turnover EPA

-19.3

WPA

+1.67

Week	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
1	LA	34	+0.184	+0.142	+0.042	+6.3	1 / 0	-4.6	0	+0.0	+0.32	+0.8
2	MIA	22	+0.964	+1.060	-0.096	+21.2	0 / 0	+0.0	0	+0.0	+0.32	+29.0
3	ARI	27	+0.767	+0.849	-0.082	+20.7	0 / 0	+0.0	0	+0.0	+0.49	-4.9
4	DEN	29	+0.371	+0.279	+0.091	+10.7	0 / 0	+0.0	0	+0.0	+0.30	-0.4
5	SEA	33	+0.029	-0.061	+0.090	+0.9	1 / 0	-5.1	3	-5.6	+0.06	+5.4
6	WAS	31	+0.036	+0.118	-0.082	+1.1	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-2.8	+0.06	+7.2
7	ATL	41	+0.118	+0.056	+0.062	+4.8	2 / 0	-9.7	2	-5.3	+0.10	+0.5

How the ratings are built

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.