MLB Slate
2026-09-04 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
16
First pitch
2:10 PM
Final
16
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
16 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:10 PM |
Detroit Tigers 64-75
@ Cleveland Guardians 70-70
|
Andrew Sears
· 4.22 · 7.6
Foster Griffin
· 3.42 · 8.1
|
Final
6–7
|
+110 / -119 | 8.5 | 53% | 55% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:10 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 87-54
@ Cincinnati Reds 67-73
|
Shane Drohan
· 5.07 · 9.0
Rhett Lowder
· 6.13 · 7.3
|
Final
10–7
|
-149 / +137 | 9.5 | 41% | 41% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 53-87
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 69-72
|
Ryan Johnson
· 4.68 · 7.5
Jared Jones
· 3.59 · 11.0
|
Final
0–1
|
+173 / -190 | 9 | 64% | 65% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
Atlanta Braves 83-57
@ Philadelphia Phillies 79-61
|
Chris Sale
· 2.16 · 11.1
Cristopher Sánchez
· 5.76 · 7.9
|
Final
5–2
|
+108 / -117 | 7 | 53% | 44% | model leans away |
| 7:05 PM |
Boston Red Sox 76-65
@ Baltimore Orioles 69-72
|
Ranger Suarez
· 3.10 · 8.5
Shane Baz
· 4.11 · 7.7
|
Final
1–0
|
-112 / +104 | 8 | 48% | 46% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:10 PM |
Chicago Cubs 79-62
@ Miami Marlins 71-70
|
Shota Imanaga
· 3.83 · 8.9
Janson Junk
· 4.21 · 6.6
|
Final
6–1
|
-166 / +152 | 8.5 | 39% | 43% | model leans home |
| 7:10 PM |
San Francisco Giants 58-83
@ New York Mets 63-77
|
Matt Wilkinson
· 4.37 · 6.4
Nolan McLean
· 2.99 · 9.6
|
Final
6–10
|
+180 / -198 | 8 | 65% | 55% | model leans away |
| 7:40 PM |
Minnesota Twins 67-73
@ Chicago White Sox 73-67
|
Zebby Matthews
· 4.90 · 8.0
Erick Fedde
· 3.86 · 6.7
|
Final
1–4
|
+112 / -121 | 9 | 54% | 55% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:45 PM |
Detroit Tigers 64-75
@ Cleveland Guardians 70-70
|
Keider Montero
· 3.69 · 5.7
Foster Griffin
· 3.42 · 8.1
|
Final/10
3–4
|
+133 / -145 | 8 | 58% | 56% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:05 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 83-57
@ Texas Rangers 70-71
|
Nick Martinez
· 3.20 · 5.4
Kumar Rocker
· 4.49 · 8.2
|
Final
7–6
|
+103 / -111 | 8.5 | 52% | 48% | model leans away |
| 8:10 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks 74-67
@ Houston Astros 72-69
|
Merrill Kelly
· 4.94 · 6.3
Cristian Javier
· 5.80 · 7.6
|
Final
1–3
|
+112 / -122 | 9 | 54% | 50% | model leans away |
| 8:10 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 70-71
@ Kansas City Royals 63-78
|
Jameson Taillon
· 5.60 · 7.9
Daniel Lynch IV
· 6.53 · 4.7
|
Final
9–2
|
+102 / -110 | 10 | 51% | 47% | model leans away |
| 8:40 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 70-71
@ Colorado Rockies 54-86
|
Kyle Leahy
· 3.66 · 8.5
Ryan Feltner
· 6.19 · 6.4
|
Final
7–6
|
-119 / +110 | 11 | 47% | 42% | model leans away |
| 9:40 PM |
New York Yankees 80-60
@ San Diego Padres 73-67
|
Max Fried
· 2.80 · 8.3
Walker Buehler
· 4.69 · 7.7
|
Final/10
2–3
|
-105 / -103 | 7 | 50% | 46% | model leans away |
| 10:10 PM |
Athletics 55-86
@ Seattle Mariners 66-75
|
Jack Perkins
· 6.75 · 10.5
Logan Gilbert
· 3.73 · 9.9
|
Final
7–6
|
+203 / -225 | 7 | 68% | 66% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 10:10 PM |
Washington Nationals 67-75
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 83-57
|
Jackson Kent
· 6.40 · 7.5
Blake Snell
· 1.90 · 11.6
|
Final
3–5
|
+237 / -265 | 8 | 71% | 71% | agrees within 3 pts |