MLB Slate
2026-09-05 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
4:10 PM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:10 PM |
Chicago Cubs 80-62
@ Miami Marlins 71-71
|
Clay Holmes
· 3.29 · 6.9
Ryan Gusto
· 4.33 · 7.4
|
Final
6–5
|
-121 / +111 | 8 | 46% | 46% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:10 PM |
San Francisco Giants 58-84
@ New York Mets 64-77
|
Anthony Molina
· 4.38 · 10.2
Zac Thornton
· 3.63 · 6.4
|
Final
9–5
|
+150 / -163 | 8 | 61% | 53% | model leans away |
| 6:05 PM |
Atlanta Braves 84-57
@ Philadelphia Phillies 79-62
|
Martín Pérez
· 5.03 · 5.5
Zack Wheeler
· 3.00 · 10.7
|
Final
2–4
|
+145 / -158 | 8 | 60% | 59% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:10 PM |
Detroit Tigers 64-77
@ Cleveland Guardians 72-70
|
Framber Valdez
· 4.20 · 7.0
Parker Messick
· 2.56 · 9.3
|
Final
6–0
|
+142 / -155 | 7 | 60% | 56% | model leans away |
| 6:40 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 53-88
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 70-72
|
Yusei Kikuchi
· 4.92 · 8.9
Braxton Ashcraft
· 3.59 · 9.4
|
Final
6–1
|
+159 / -173 | 7.5 | 62% | 60% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 88-54
@ Cincinnati Reds 67-74
|
Dustin May
· 4.77 · 9.0
Andrew Abbott
· 4.69 · 7.2
|
Final
3–5
|
-143 / +132 | 9 | 42% | 43% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:05 PM |
Boston Red Sox 77-65
@ Baltimore Orioles 69-73
|
Sonny Gray
· 2.82 · 7.8
Chris Bassitt
· 4.71 · 6.3
|
Final
5–0
|
-119 / +110 | 7.5 | 47% | 45% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:05 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 84-57
@ Texas Rangers 70-72
|
Drew Rasmussen
· 2.67 · 9.1
Jacob deGrom
· 4.20 · 11.1
|
Final/10
6–3
|
+101 / -109 | 6.5 | 51% | 50% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:10 PM |
Minnesota Twins 67-74
@ Chicago White Sox 74-67
|
Taj Bradley
· 3.73 · 10.3
Anthony Kay
· 4.53 · 7.6
|
Final
6–4
|
+110 / -119 | 8.5 | 53% | 54% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:10 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 71-71
@ Kansas City Royals 63-79
|
Max Scherzer
· 5.74 · 7.2
Seth Lugo
· 5.17 · 7.0
|
Final
4–3
|
-107 / -101 | 9.5 | 49% | 48% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:15 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks 74-68
@ Houston Astros 73-69
|
Brandon Pfaadt
· 3.38 · 5.8
Peter Lambert
· 3.82 · 8.9
|
Final/10
4–3
|
-108 / -101 | 9 | 49% | 52% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:15 PM |
New York Yankees 80-61
@ San Diego Padres 74-67
|
Carlos Rodón
· 2.87 · 9.8
Robbie Ray
· 3.73 · 7.5
|
Final
5–1
|
+120 / -130 | 7.5 | 56% | 52% | model leans away |
| 8:10 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 71-71
@ Colorado Rockies 54-87
|
Matthew Liberatore
· 5.23 · 8.9
Mason Adams
· 4.03 · 9.6
|
Final
7–10
|
-124 / +114 | 10.5 | 46% | 45% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:10 PM |
Washington Nationals 67-76
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 84-57
|
Cade Cavalli
· 3.02 · 10.6
Tyler Glasnow
· 3.53 · 11.9
|
Final
5–6
|
+166 / -182 | 7 | 63% | 68% | model leans home |
| 9:40 PM |
Athletics 56-86
@ Seattle Mariners 66-76
|
Jeffrey Springs
· 5.97 · 6.9
George Kirby
· 4.33 · 7.6
|
Final
6–2
|
+208 / -230 | 7.5 | 69% | 62% | model leans away |