MLB Slate
2026-09-03 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
9
First pitch
12:35 PM
Final
9
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
9 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:35 PM |
San Francisco Giants 58-82
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 68-72
|
Blade Tidwell
· 4.99 · 7.5
Lake Bachar
· 2.16 · 10.1
|
Final
2–5
|
+149 / -163 | 9 | 61% | 54% | model leans away |
| 1:10 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 69-71
@ Cleveland Guardians 70-69
|
José Soriano
· 4.66 · 5.3
Tanner Bibee
· 4.34 · 6.8
|
Final
6–3
|
-106 / -102 | 8 | 50% | 56% | model leans home |
| 2:10 PM |
Chicago White Sox 73-66
@ Houston Astros 71-69
|
Luis Castillo
· 5.37 · 7.6
Hunter Brown
· 3.11 · 10.3
|
Final
2–6
|
+151 / -165 | 8.5 | 61% | 54% | model leans away |
| 7:15 PM |
Boston Red Sox 75-65
@ Baltimore Orioles 69-71
|
Jake Bennett
· 3.58 · 7.2
Brandon Young
· 3.49 · 7.6
|
Final
6–5
|
-114 / +106 | 8.5 | 48% | 45% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:15 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 87-53
@ Chicago Cubs 78-62
|
Logan Henderson
· 2.44 · 9.9
Kevin Gausman
· 4.51 · 9.3
|
Final
1–2
|
-119 / +110 | 8 | 47% | 49% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:40 PM |
Miami Marlins 71-69
@ Kansas City Royals 62-78
|
Sandy Alcantara
· 3.92 · 6.5
Michael Wacha
· 3.37 · 7.2
|
Final
3–7
|
+110 / -119 | 9.5 | 53% | 50% | model leans away |
| 8:05 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 83-56
@ Texas Rangers 69-71
|
Shane McClanahan
· 3.28 · 8.1
Cal Quantrill
· 2.47 · 7.2
|
Final
0–6
|
-118 / +109 | 8 | 47% | 44% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:40 PM |
Athletics 54-86
@ Seattle Mariners 66-74
|
Jack Perkins
· 6.75 · 10.5
Kade Anderson
· 3.79 · 8.1
|
Final
7–4
|
+190 / -209 | 7.5 | 67% | 59% | model leans away |
| 10:10 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 70-70
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 82-57
|
Quinn Mathews
· 3.83 · 8.4
Tarik Skubal
· 2.71 · 10.6
|
Final
2–3
|
+251 / -282 | 7.5 | 73% | 73% | agrees within 3 pts |