Pick'em Mode

Week 4
Optimized Hybrid
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Backtested 2018-2024: 73.8% of max points.
0
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
16
Pending
2026 Season
← Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 →
Full Predictions
16
pts
Atlanta Falcons Atlanta Falcons *
@
New Orleans Saints New Orleans Saints
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -13.8
Strong favorite
Pending
15
pts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers *
@
Chicago Bears Chicago Bears
2026-09-15 Favorite
CHI -12.4
Strong favorite
Pending
14
pts
New York Jets New York Jets *
@
New England Patriots New England Patriots
2026-09-15 Favorite
NEW -11.1
Strong favorite
Pending
13
pts
Houston Texans Houston Texans
@
Philadelphia Eagles Philadelphia Eagles *
2026-09-15 Favorite
HOU -11.3
Strong favorite
Pending
12
pts
Seattle Seahawks Seattle Seahawks *
@
Green Bay Packers Green Bay Packers
2026-09-15 Favorite
GRE -9.5
Clear favorite
Pending
11
pts
San Francisco 49ers San Francisco 49ers
@
Washington Commanders Washington Commanders *
2026-09-15 Favorite
SAN -9.8
Clear favorite
Pending
10
pts
Dallas Cowboys Dallas Cowboys
@
Baltimore Ravens Baltimore Ravens *
2026-09-15 Favorite
DAL -9.3
Clear favorite
Pending
9
pts
Denver Broncos Denver Broncos
@
Cleveland Browns Cleveland Browns *
2026-09-15 Favorite
DEN -8.7
Clear favorite
Pending
8
pts
Los Angeles Rams Los Angeles Rams
@
Arizona Cardinals Arizona Cardinals *
2026-09-15 Favorite
LOS -7.9
Clear favorite
Pending
7
pts
Kansas City Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs *
@
Minnesota Vikings Minnesota Vikings
2026-09-15 Favorite
MIN -7.2
Clear favorite
Pending
6
pts
Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati Bengals
@
Carolina Panthers Carolina Panthers *
2026-09-15 Favorite
CIN -5.2
Moderate favorite
Pending
5
pts
Los Angeles Chargers Los Angeles Chargers
@
New York Giants New York Giants *
2026-09-15 Favorite
LOS -5.1
Moderate favorite
Pending
4
pts
Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills
@
Las Vegas Raiders Las Vegas Raiders *
2026-09-15 Favorite
BUF -3.4
Slight favorite
Pending
3
pts
Miami Dolphins Miami Dolphins *
@
Tennessee Titans Tennessee Titans
2026-09-15 Model
MIA -2.3
Toss-up
Pending
2
pts
Detroit Lions Detroit Lions
@
Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers *
2026-09-15 Model
PIT -1.3
Toss-up
Pending
1
pts
Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville Jaguars *
@
Indianapolis Colts Indianapolis Colts
2026-09-15 Model
JAC -1.6
Toss-up
Pending

How Pick'em Scoring Works

  1. Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
  2. Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick. 1 = least confident, 16 = most confident.
  3. Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
  4. Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
    • Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
    • Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
  5. Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.