Pick'em Mode
Week 4Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
0
Points Earned
136
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
16
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 |
 TEN
@
 BAL
|
TEN -8.5
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 15 |
 NYJ
@
 CHI
|
NYJ -8.5
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 14 |
 MIA
@
 MIN
|
MIA -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 13 |
 ARI
@
 NYG
|
ARI -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 12 |
 LA
@
 PHI
|
PHI -7.0
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 11 |
 KC
@
 LV
|
LV -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Pending
|
| 10 |
 NE
@
 BUF
|
NE -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 9 |
 LAC
@
 SEA
|
LAC -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 8 |
 DET
@
 CAR
|
CAR -3.0
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 7 |
 PIT
@
 CLE
|
CLE -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 6 |
 JAX
@
 CIN
|
JAX -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 5 |
 DAL
@
 HOU
|
DAL -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 4 |
 DEN
@
 SF
|
DEN -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 3 |
 ATL
@
 NO
|
ATL -2.5
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 2 |
 IND
@
 WAS
|
IND -1.5
Toss-up
|
Pending
|
| 1 |
 GB
@
 TB
|
TB -1.5
Toss-up
|
Pending
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-16 to each pick.
1= least confident,16= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.