Pick'em Mode
Week 11Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
0
Points Earned
91
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
13
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 |
 MIA
@
 BUF
|
MIA -11.5
Strong favorite
|
Pending
|
| 12 |
 ARI
@
 KC
|
ARI -11.5
Strong favorite
|
Pending
|
| 11 |
 NYJ
@
 LAC
|
NYJ -9.5
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 10 |
 LV
@
 DEN
|
LV -7.5
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 9 |
 NO
@
 CHI
|
NO -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Pending
|
| 8 |
 TEN
@
 DAL
|
TEN -6.5
Moderate favorite
|
Pending
|
| 7 |
 IND
@
 HOU
|
IND -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Pending
|
| 6 |
 PIT
@
 PHI
|
PIT -5.5
Moderate favorite
|
Pending
|
| 5 |
 BAL
@
 CAR
|
CAR -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Pending
|
| 4 |
 TB
@
 DET
|
TB -4.5
Moderate favorite
|
Pending
|
| 3 |
 MIN
@
 SF
|
MIN -3.5
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 2 |
 JAX
@
 NYG
|
NYG -1.5
Toss-up
|
Pending
|
| 1 |
 CIN
@
 WAS
|
WAS -1.5
Toss-up
|
Pending
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-13 to each pick.
1= least confident,13= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.