Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin: offence minus defence EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. Win exp: how often a team with that margin wins (a 55% win was close to a coin flip). Win prob range: the lowest and highest in-game win chance.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS L | 23–55 | -26.0dog 6.0 | -0.09 → -0.04 | +0.42 → +0.35 | -0.39 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 56% | 3 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 55–23 | +26.0fav 6.0 | +0.42 → +0.39 | -0.09 → -0.15 | +0.53 | 100%raw 100% | 44% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| BUF L | 29–32 | -1.5dog 1.5 | +0.19 → +0.20 | +0.26 → +0.23 | -0.03 | 43%raw 29% | 2% – 63% | 0 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 32–29 | +1.5fav 1.5 | +0.26 → +0.27 | +0.19 → +0.06 | +0.22 | 92%raw 71% | 37% – 98% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | BUF | 29 | +0.595 | +0.594 | +0.001 | +17.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.47 | +5.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | 30 | +0.498 | +0.534 | -0.036 | +14.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.18 | +15.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | KC | 37 | +0.217 | +0.197 | +0.020 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.10 | +5.2 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | PHI | 53 | +0.042 | +0.000 | +0.042 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 3 | -6.2 | -0.12 | -6.1 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.