Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Teams, 2021
Per-game averages. Expected wins sums each game's win expectancy, so wins minus expected is mostly luck. Click a column to sort.
| Team | Record | Adj off EPA | Adj def EPA | Adj margin | Raw margin | Expected wins | Wins − expected | Avg vs line | Turnover diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 12–7 | +0.154 | -0.111 | +0.264 | +0.275 | 14.0 | -2.0 | +4.0 | +8 |
| TB | 14–5 | +0.138 | -0.066 | +0.203 | +0.205 | 14.8 | -0.8 | +0.4 | +13 |
| DAL | 12–6 | +0.088 | -0.094 | +0.183 | +0.185 | 13.4 | -1.4 | +5.1 | +15 |
| LA | 16–5 | +0.071 | -0.077 | +0.148 | +0.130 | 14.8 | +1.2 | +0.3 | +0 |
| GB | 13–5 | +0.125 | -0.011 | +0.136 | +0.135 | 13.9 | -0.9 | +0.1 | +13 |
| KC | 14–6 | +0.164 | +0.033 | +0.130 | +0.116 | 13.4 | +0.6 | +0.6 | +2 |
| SF | 12–8 | +0.057 | -0.054 | +0.112 | +0.098 | 13.7 | -1.7 | +0.9 | -4 |
| NE | 10–8 | +0.070 | -0.034 | +0.104 | +0.094 | 10.4 | -0.4 | +4.2 | +6 |
| ARI | 11–7 | +0.049 | -0.054 | +0.103 | +0.089 | 11.6 | -0.6 | +0.2 | +11 |
| CIN | 13–8 | +0.033 | -0.026 | +0.059 | +0.065 | 12.4 | +0.6 | +4.5 | +9 |
| IND | 9–8 | +0.046 | -0.007 | +0.053 | +0.060 | 9.5 | -0.5 | +3.4 | +16 |
| TEN | 12–6 | +0.014 | -0.036 | +0.050 | +0.055 | 10.2 | +1.8 | +2.5 | -7 |
| LAC | 9–8 | +0.074 | +0.033 | +0.041 | +0.053 | 10.3 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -1 |
| MIN | 8–9 | +0.013 | -0.020 | +0.033 | +0.029 | 9.6 | -1.6 | -0.2 | +10 |
| NO | 9–8 | -0.081 | -0.109 | +0.028 | +0.025 | 9.4 | -0.4 | +1.8 | +8 |
| PHI | 9–9 | +0.054 | +0.032 | +0.022 | +0.034 | 9.2 | -0.2 | +2.5 | -2 |
| SEA | 7–10 | +0.036 | +0.025 | +0.011 | +0.004 | 8.3 | -1.3 | +1.2 | +3 |
| CLE | 8–9 | -0.002 | -0.008 | +0.007 | +0.017 | 8.6 | -0.6 | -3.0 | -4 |
| DEN | 7–10 | -0.016 | +0.004 | -0.020 | +0.008 | 7.9 | -0.9 | +0.4 | +2 |
| MIA | 9–8 | -0.067 | -0.029 | -0.038 | -0.021 | 7.1 | +1.9 | -0.4 | +2 |
| LV | 10–8 | -0.021 | +0.036 | -0.057 | -0.056 | 8.2 | +1.8 | -1.9 | -13 |
| BAL | 8–9 | +0.005 | +0.065 | -0.059 | -0.060 | 6.6 | +1.4 | -1.9 | -11 |
| CAR | 5–12 | -0.134 | -0.052 | -0.082 | -0.082 | 5.6 | -0.6 | -3.4 | -13 |
| PIT | 9–8–1 | -0.091 | +0.008 | -0.100 | -0.113 | 6.8 | +2.7 | -2.3 | +3 |
| WAS | 7–10 | -0.052 | +0.058 | -0.111 | -0.123 | 5.4 | +1.6 | -2.1 | -5 |
| CHI | 6–11 | -0.112 | +0.022 | -0.135 | -0.142 | 6.0 | -0.0 | -1.0 | -12 |
| DET | 3–13–1 | -0.070 | +0.104 | -0.174 | -0.179 | 4.2 | -0.7 | +0.0 | -4 |
| NYG | 4–13 | -0.158 | +0.036 | -0.193 | -0.193 | 4.4 | -0.4 | -2.8 | -8 |
| ATL | 7–10 | -0.096 | +0.101 | -0.196 | -0.188 | 4.5 | +2.5 | -5.0 | -7 |
| JAX | 3–14 | -0.101 | +0.113 | -0.214 | -0.209 | 3.6 | -0.6 | -5.4 | -19 |
| NYJ | 4–13 | -0.096 | +0.132 | -0.227 | -0.232 | 3.4 | +0.6 | -4.1 | -13 |
| HOU | 4–13 | -0.166 | +0.080 | -0.246 | -0.246 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +0.2 | +2 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.