Pick'em Mode
Week 21Always-favourite (baseline)
Uses XGBoost model predictions for close games, Vegas favorites for lopsided matchups. Benchmark: always picking the Vegas favorite scores 72.4% of maximum confidence points (66.4% straight up) across 2018-2025.
0
Points Earned
36
Points Possible
0.0%
Percentage
0-0
Record
8
Pending
| Pts | Matchup | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |
 Detroit Lions
@
 New York Jets
|
NEW -13.7
Strong favorite
|
Pending
|
| 7 |
 Cincinnati Bengals
@
 Philadelphia Eagles
|
CIN -9.5
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 6 |
 San Francisco 49ers
@
 Indianapolis Colts
|
IND -7.3
Clear favorite
|
Pending
|
| 5 |
 Jacksonville Jaguars
@
 New England Patriots
|
JAC -3.7
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 4 |
 Washington Commanders
@
 Seattle Seahawks
|
SEA -3.3
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 3 |
 New Orleans Saints
@
 Las Vegas Raiders
|
NEW -2.7
Slight favorite
|
Pending
|
| 2 |
 Chicago Bears
@
 Pittsburgh Steelers
|
CHI -2.0
Toss-up
|
Pending
|
| 1 |
 Dallas Cowboys
@
 Los Angeles Chargers
|
DAL -0.1
Toss-up
|
Pending
|
How Pick'em Scoring Works
- Pick the Winner: For each game, pick which team will win straight-up (no spread).
- Rank by Confidence: Assign confidence rankings 1-8 to each pick.
1= least confident,8= most confident. - Earn Points: If your pick is correct, you earn points equal to your confidence ranking.
- Strategy: This page uses the Optimized Hybrid strategy:
- Close games (spread < 3 pts): Trust the XGBoost model predictions
- Lopsided games (spread ≥ 3 pts): Trust the Vegas favorite
- Backtest Result: This hybrid strategy scores ~73.8% of maximum possible points over 7 years (2018-2024), outperforming "always favorite" by +1.3 percentage points.