Jaylin Noel

WR · HOU · ESPN · Pro Football Reference

Box score by season

Season	Team	G	Rush	Rush yds	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	vs ESPN
2026	HOU	7	4	26	23	19	331	2	✓ matches
2025	HOU	14	6	12	35	26	292	2	✓ matches
2025 playoffs	HOU	2	0	0	2	0	0	0

Official scoring from play-by-play. Regular-season totals for 2025, 2026 are compared with ESPN's after every rebuild (all players); earlier seasons aren't checked.

Advanced

Targets

qualifying bar 17

EPA/play

+0.804

3rd of 166 · lg +0.193

Success rate

60.9%

18th of 166 · lg 49.8%

Yards/play

14.39

1st of 166 · lg 7.42

Explosive rate

26.1%

2nd of 166 · lg 9.1%

Catch rate

82.6%

16th of 166 · lg 67.3%

Air yards/att

9.8

73rd of 166 · lg 7.9

Turnover rate

0.0%

1st of 166 · lg 2.7%

TD rate

8.7%

29th of 166 · lg 4.8%

Every split

EPA per target by situation, next to the league. Rank is among qualified players with 12+ targets there (1 = best). "Repeats" is the year-to-year correlation for that split (2016–25); near zero means it predicts little. Click a situation to filter to it.

Situation	Targets	EPA/play	Success	Yds/play	League EPA	Rank	Repeats
Home / away Setting compare everyone →
Home	12	+0.575	50%	13.8	+0.197	22/116	-0.02
Away	7	+0.322	57%	8.3	+0.190	—	-0.03
Neutral site	4	+2.336	100%	26.8	+0.183	—	—
Rest days Setting compare everyone →
Short week (≤5 days)	0	—	—	—	+0.265	—	0.19
Normal (6–8 days)	21	+0.691	57%	13.2	+0.174	11/151	-0.01
Extra rest (9–12 days)	0	—	—	—	+0.270	—	0.21
Off a bye (13+ days)	0	—	—	—	+0.271	—	—
Indoors / outdoors Weather compare everyone →
Indoors	12	+0.575	50%	13.8	+0.206	8/56	0.05
Outdoors	11	+1.054	73%	15.0	+0.187	—	0.05
Temperature (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
60–79°F	0	—	—	—	+0.210	—	-0.02
80°F+	0	—	—	—	+0.213	—	0.01
Wind (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
0–9 mph	0	—	—	—	+0.215	—	-0.09
10–14 mph	0	—	—	—	+0.200	—	0.05
Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
Dry	7	+0.322	57%	8.3	+0.203	—	0.03
Rain or snow	4	+2.336	100%	26.8	+0.015	—	0.03
Score Game state compare everyone →
Trailing 9+	3	+1.274	67%	22.0	+0.189	—	-0.01
Trailing 1–8	9	+0.541	56%	12.7	+0.180	—	0.07
Tied	3	+0.280	33%	11.7	+0.186	—	0.02
Leading 1–8	6	+0.844	67%	16.3	+0.202	—	-0.03
Leading 9+	2	+1.948	100%	9.0	+0.243	—	-0.05
Win probability Game state compare everyone →
Win prob under 20%	2	+0.693	50%	15.5	+0.169	—	-0.05
Win prob 20–80%	19	+0.696	58%	14.8	+0.195	13/151	-0.02
Win prob over 80%	2	+1.948	100%	9.0	+0.221	—	0.09
Quarter Game state compare everyone →
Q1	4	+0.642	50%	16.2	+0.119	—	0.04
Q2	9	+0.489	44%	15.9	+0.208	—	-0.01
Q3	4	+0.943	75%	8.0	+0.200	—	-0.01
Q4	6	+1.292	83%	15.2	+0.223	—	-0.03
OT	0	—	—	—	+0.374	—	—
Two-minute Game state compare everyone →
Last 2 min of half	8	+0.617	50%	14.6	+0.159	—	0.10
Rest of game	15	+0.904	67%	14.3	+0.199	3/165	0.10
Down Situation compare everyone →
1st down	12	+0.533	50%	13.7	+0.227	14/78	0.00
2nd down	5	+1.111	80%	21.4	+0.189	—	0.02
3rd down	6	+1.091	67%	10.0	+0.134	—	-0.02
4th down	0	—	—	—	+0.374	—	—
3rd-down distance Situation compare everyone →
3rd & 1–3	1	+1.542	100%	18.0	+0.163	—	—
3rd & 4–6	0	—	—	—	+0.221	—	-0.27
3rd & 7+	5	+1.001	60%	8.4	+0.081	—	0.02
Field position Situation compare everyone →
Own 20 and in	4	+1.282	75%	23.8	+0.147	—	-0.04
Own 50–21	7	+0.502	43%	14.4	+0.162	—	0.04
Opp 21–49	8	+0.523	62%	13.0	+0.238	—	0.06
Red zone (opp 20 in)	4	+1.417	75%	7.8	+0.228	—	0.05
Formation Style compare everyone →
Shotgun	20	+0.762	60%	13.3	+0.173	9/161	-0.02
Under center	3	+1.084	67%	21.3	+0.273	—	-0.02
Tempo Style compare everyone →
Huddle	21	+0.732	57%	13.6	+0.195	7/166	-0.00
No huddle	2	+1.565	100%	22.5	+0.169	—	-0.00
Yards to go Situation compare everyone →
1–3 to go	4	+1.820	100%	29.0	+0.250	—	0.05
4–6 to go	0	—	—	—	+0.240	—	0.02
7–10 to go	17	+0.695	53%	11.8	+0.208	11/144	0.03
11+ to go	2	-0.302	50%	7.0	+0.055	—	-0.07
Pass depth Passing compare everyone →
Behind the line	4	-0.688	0%	-0.2	-0.209	—	0.15
Short (0–9)	10	+0.341	50%	8.8	+0.162	—	0.09
Intermediate (10–19)	5	+1.655	100%	17.8	+0.464	—	0.07
Deep (20+)	4	+2.392	100%	38.8	+0.446	—	0.01
Pass direction Passing compare everyone →
Left	7	+1.009	57%	14.7	+0.147	—	0.04
Middle	8	+0.957	75%	19.2	+0.321	—	-0.02
Right	8	+0.472	50%	9.2	+0.168	—	0.03
Play action Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Play action	6	+0.920	67%	19.0	+0.287	—	-0.03
No play action	17	+0.763	59%	12.8	+0.166	7/160	-0.03
In / out of pocket Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
In pocket	20	+0.839	65%	16.3	+0.187	3/163	-0.05
Out of pocket	3	+0.575	33%	1.7	+0.231	—	-0.05
Blitz Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Blitzed	6	+0.354	50%	11.2	+0.190	—	0.08
No blitz	17	+0.963	65%	15.5	+0.194	3/160	0.08
Pass rushers Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
3 or fewer rushers	2	-0.388	0%	0.5	+0.106	—	—
4 rushers	15	+1.143	73%	17.5	+0.198	1/157	0.12
5 rushers	5	+0.604	60%	14.2	+0.186	—	0.15
6+ rushers	1	-0.895	0%	-4.0	+0.199	—	—
Defenders in the box Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Light box (6 or fewer)	17	+0.948	65%	14.5	+0.172	3/151	-0.04
7 in the box	4	+0.479	50%	16.5	+0.214	—	-0.05
Stacked box (8+)	2	+0.235	50%	9.0	+0.313	—	—
Screen Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Screen	3	-0.886	0%	-0.3	-0.084	—	0.50
Not a screen	20	+1.058	70%	16.6	+0.223	1/166	0.50
Pre-snap motion Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Motion	14	+0.784	57%	15.1	+0.204	10/140	0.10
No motion	9	+0.837	67%	13.3	+0.179	—	0.10
RPO Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
RPO	0	—	—	—	-0.104	—	—
Not an RPO	23	+0.804	61%	14.4	+0.200	3/166	—

By season

Season	Team	Targets	EPA/play	Total EPA	Success	Yds/play	Catch rate	aDOT	YAC/catch
2026	HOU	23	+0.804	+18.5	60.9%	14.39	82.6%	9.8	6.0

Definitions

QB plays are dropbacks: passes, sacks and scrambles (spikes left out). A receiver's fumble after the catch isn't charged to the QB. Rushing counts designed runs only. Receiving is EPA per target. EPA swings about ±1.4 points a play, so a 50-play split carries about ±0.2 of luck.