Zay Flowers

WR · BAL · ESPN · Pro Football Reference

Box score by season

Season	Team	G	Rush	Rush yds	TD	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	vs ESPN
2026	BAL	8	6	51	0	64	43	614	3	✓ matches
2025	BAL	17	10	62	1	118	86	1,211	5	✓ matches
2024	BAL	17	9	56	0	116	74	1,059	4	not checked
2023	BAL	16	8	56	1	108	77	858	5	not checked
2023 playoffs	BAL	2	2	4	0	13	9	156	1

Official scoring from play-by-play. Regular-season totals for 2025, 2026 are compared with ESPN's after every rebuild (all players); earlier seasons aren't checked.

Advanced

Targets

qualifying bar 17

EPA/play

+0.195

83rd of 166 · lg +0.193

Success rate

53.1%

63rd of 166 · lg 49.8%

Yards/play

9.59

27th of 166 · lg 7.42

Explosive rate

14.1%

36th of 166 · lg 9.1%

Catch rate

67.2%

95th of 166 · lg 67.3%

Air yards/att

7.6

91st of 166 · lg 7.9

Turnover rate

6.2%

147th of 166 · lg 2.7%

TD rate

4.7%

75th of 166 · lg 4.8%

Notable in 2026

His biggest gaps between one situation and the rest of his plays, beyond the league's own gap there (|z| ≥ 2.5). Many splits get checked, so some of these are luck; the badge says whether that kind of split repeats year to year.

-0.98 EPA/target with win probability under 20% vs +0.55 the rest of the time (15 vs 49; league gap -0.03; z -3.3) mostly noise · r -0.05
+1.10 EPA/target in the 1st quarter vs -0.13 the rest of the time (17 vs 47; league gap -0.09; z +3.0) mostly noise · r 0.04

Every split

EPA per target by situation, next to the league. Rank is among qualified players with 12+ targets there (1 = best). "Repeats" is the year-to-year correlation for that split (2016–25); near zero means it predicts little. Click a situation to filter to it.

Situation	Targets	EPA/play	Success	Yds/play	League EPA	Rank	Repeats
Home / away Setting compare everyone →
Home	27	-0.096	56%	9.7	+0.197	98/116	-0.02
Away	31	+0.272	45%	8.7	+0.190	49/116	-0.03
Neutral site	6	+1.103	83%	14.0	+0.183	—	—
Rest days Setting compare everyone →
Short week (≤5 days)	6	-2.133	17%	1.0	+0.265	—	0.19
Normal (6–8 days)	52	+0.235	54%	8.8	+0.174	63/151	-0.01
Extra rest (9–12 days)	0	—	—	—	+0.270	—	0.21
Off a bye (13+ days)	0	—	—	—	+0.271	—	—
Indoors / outdoors Weather compare everyone →
Indoors	6	+2.175	83%	25.0	+0.206	—	0.05
Outdoors	58	-0.010	50%	8.0	+0.187	106/137	0.05
Temperature (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
60–79°F	16	+0.683	69%	12.6	+0.210	11/54	-0.02
80°F+	0	—	—	—	+0.213	—	0.01
Wind (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
0–9 mph	16	+0.683	69%	12.6	+0.215	12/56	-0.09
10–14 mph	0	—	—	—	+0.200	—	0.05
Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
Dry	52	+0.235	54%	8.8	+0.203	61/129	0.03
Rain or snow	6	-2.133	17%	1.0	+0.015	—	0.03
Score Game state compare everyone →
Trailing 9+	10	-1.684	30%	3.7	+0.189	—	-0.01
Trailing 1–8	16	+0.049	56%	7.9	+0.180	39/63	0.07
Tied	11	+1.177	73%	14.1	+0.186	—	0.02
Leading 1–8	14	+1.031	57%	15.1	+0.202	3/32	-0.03
Leading 9+	13	+0.089	46%	6.4	+0.243	3/5	-0.05
Win probability Game state compare everyone →
Win prob under 20%	15	-0.978	47%	5.1	+0.169	33/33	-0.05
Win prob 20–80%	36	+0.498	53%	10.0	+0.195	29/151	-0.02
Win prob over 80%	13	+0.709	62%	13.5	+0.221	4/15	0.09
Quarter Game state compare everyone →
Q1	17	+1.099	71%	14.1	+0.119	3/31	0.04
Q2	22	+0.456	59%	11.3	+0.208	23/63	-0.01
Q3	14	-0.752	21%	3.1	+0.200	35/36	-0.01
Q4	9	-0.744	56%	8.4	+0.223	—	-0.03
OT	2	+0.492	50%	3.5	+0.374	—	—
Two-minute Game state compare everyone →
Last 2 min of half	11	+0.186	55%	8.0	+0.159	—	0.10
Rest of game	53	+0.197	53%	9.9	+0.199	86/165	0.10
Down Situation compare everyone →
1st down	24	+0.056	67%	11.9	+0.227	63/78	0.00
2nd down	23	+0.257	48%	7.6	+0.189	37/81	0.02
3rd down	17	+0.307	41%	9.1	+0.134	21/50	-0.02
4th down	0	—	—	—	+0.374	—	—
3rd-down distance Situation compare everyone →
3rd & 1–3	1	-1.746	0%	0.0	+0.163	—	—
3rd & 4–6	5	-0.253	40%	3.2	+0.221	—	-0.27
3rd & 7+	11	+0.748	45%	12.6	+0.081	—	0.02
Field position Situation compare everyone →
Own 20 and in	9	+0.601	67%	8.9	+0.147	—	-0.04
Own 50–21	35	-0.268	46%	9.1	+0.162	106/115	0.04
Opp 21–49	13	+0.977	62%	11.9	+0.238	7/59	0.06
Red zone (opp 20 in)	7	+0.535	57%	8.4	+0.228	—	0.05
Formation Style compare everyone →
Shotgun	57	+0.148	53%	9.4	+0.173	84/161	-0.02
Under center	7	+0.577	57%	11.1	+0.273	—	-0.02
Tempo Style compare everyone →
Huddle	64	+0.195	53%	9.6	+0.195	80/166	-0.00
No huddle	0	—	—	—	+0.169	—	-0.00
Yards to go Situation compare everyone →
1–3 to go	2	-0.585	50%	3.5	+0.250	—	0.05
4–6 to go	9	-0.719	33%	2.7	+0.240	—	0.02
7–10 to go	41	+0.465	61%	12.2	+0.208	33/144	0.03
11+ to go	12	+0.087	42%	7.0	+0.055	8/11	-0.07
Pass depth Passing compare everyone →
Behind the line	9	-0.770	11%	5.9	-0.209	—	0.15
Short (0–9)	38	+0.162	61%	8.2	+0.162	59/116	0.09
Intermediate (10–19)	10	+0.232	60%	9.0	+0.464	—	0.07
Deep (20+)	7	+1.557	57%	22.7	+0.446	—	0.01
Pass direction Passing compare everyone →
Left	16	-0.206	50%	9.1	+0.147	72/84	0.04
Middle	23	+0.495	57%	11.1	+0.321	16/35	-0.02
Right	25	+0.175	52%	8.6	+0.168	44/102	0.03
Play action Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Play action	7	+0.094	43%	9.4	+0.287	—	-0.03
No play action	57	+0.207	54%	9.6	+0.166	73/160	-0.03
In / out of pocket Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
In pocket	58	+0.085	52%	8.9	+0.187	107/163	-0.05
Out of pocket	6	+1.256	67%	16.7	+0.231	—	-0.05
Blitz Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Blitzed	18	+0.920	56%	12.2	+0.190	3/70	0.08
No blitz	46	-0.089	52%	8.6	+0.194	126/160	0.08
Pass rushers Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
3 or fewer rushers	0	—	—	—	+0.106	—	—
4 rushers	46	-0.089	52%	8.6	+0.198	124/157	0.12
5 rushers	11	+0.501	45%	9.9	+0.186	—	0.15
6+ rushers	7	+1.579	71%	15.9	+0.199	—	—
Defenders in the box Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Light box (6 or fewer)	42	+0.205	52%	10.5	+0.172	71/151	-0.04
7 in the box	19	+0.222	58%	8.6	+0.214	30/53	-0.05
Stacked box (8+)	3	-0.123	33%	3.7	+0.313	—	—
Screen Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Screen	4	+0.886	25%	14.0	-0.084	—	0.50
Not a screen	60	+0.149	55%	9.3	+0.223	102/166	0.50
Pre-snap motion Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Motion	49	+0.107	49%	7.9	+0.204	89/140	0.10
No motion	15	+0.483	67%	15.1	+0.179	20/97	0.10
RPO Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
RPO	0	—	—	—	-0.104	—	—
Not an RPO	64	+0.195	53%	9.6	+0.200	85/166	—

By season

Season	Team	Targets	EPA/play	Total EPA	Success	Yds/play	Catch rate	aDOT	YAC/catch
2026	BAL	64	+0.195	+12.5	53.1%	9.59	67.2%	7.6	7.5

Definitions

QB plays are dropbacks: passes, sacks and scrambles (spikes left out). A receiver's fumble after the catch isn't charged to the QB. Rushing counts designed runs only. Receiving is EPA per target. EPA swings about ±1.4 points a play, so a 50-play split carries about ±0.2 of luck.