Josh Downs

WR · IND · ESPN · Pro Football Reference

Box score by season

Season	Team	G	Rush	Rush yds	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	vs ESPN
2026	IND	8	1	7	51	30	330	1	1 differ (Targets 51 vs 50)
2025	IND	16	2	-2	88	58	566	4	✓ matches
2024	IND	14	1	12	107	72	803	5	not checked
2023	IND	17	0	0	98	68	771	2	not checked

Official scoring from play-by-play. Regular-season totals for 2025, 2026 are compared with ESPN's after every rebuild (all players); earlier seasons aren't checked.

Advanced

Targets

qualifying bar 17

EPA/play

+0.288

59th of 166 · lg +0.193

Success rate

49.0%

94th of 166 · lg 49.8%

Yards/play

6.47

101st of 166 · lg 7.42

Explosive rate

9.8%

68th of 166 · lg 9.1%

Catch rate

58.8%

130th of 166 · lg 67.3%

Air yards/att

10.4

64th of 166 · lg 7.9

Turnover rate

3.9%

107th of 166 · lg 2.7%

TD rate

2.0%

125th of 166 · lg 4.8%

Every split

EPA per target by situation, next to the league. Rank is among qualified players with 12+ targets there (1 = best). "Repeats" is the year-to-year correlation for that split (2016–25); near zero means it predicts little. Click a situation to filter to it.

Situation	Targets	EPA/play	Success	Yds/play	League EPA	Rank	Repeats
Home / away Setting compare everyone →
Home	23	+0.236	39%	6.7	+0.197	58/116	-0.02
Away	24	+0.364	62%	6.7	+0.190	37/116	-0.03
Neutral site	4	+0.132	25%	4.0	+0.183	—	—
Rest days Setting compare everyone →
Short week (≤5 days)	0	—	—	—	+0.265	—	0.19
Normal (6–8 days)	47	+0.240	49%	6.2	+0.174	62/151	-0.01
Extra rest (9–12 days)	0	—	—	—	+0.270	—	0.21
Off a bye (13+ days)	0	—	—	—	+0.271	—	—
Indoors / outdoors Weather compare everyone →
Indoors	8	+0.325	50%	6.9	+0.206	—	0.05
Outdoors	43	+0.281	49%	6.4	+0.187	49/137	0.05
Temperature (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
60–79°F	13	+0.670	62%	6.8	+0.210	12/54	-0.02
80°F+	0	—	—	—	+0.213	—	0.01
Wind (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
0–9 mph	4	+0.132	25%	4.0	+0.215	—	-0.09
10–14 mph	9	+0.909	78%	8.0	+0.200	—	0.05
Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
Dry	43	+0.281	49%	6.4	+0.203	53/129	0.03
Rain or snow	0	—	—	—	+0.015	—	0.03
Score Game state compare everyone →
Trailing 9+	8	-0.050	50%	2.9	+0.189	—	-0.01
Trailing 1–8	16	+0.562	62%	9.7	+0.180	9/63	0.07
Tied	14	+0.430	50%	6.4	+0.186	10/29	0.02
Leading 1–8	11	-0.250	27%	5.3	+0.202	—	-0.03
Leading 9+	2	+1.413	50%	2.0	+0.243	—	-0.05
Win probability Game state compare everyone →
Win prob under 20%	10	+0.174	60%	5.6	+0.169	—	-0.05
Win prob 20–80%	37	+0.352	49%	7.2	+0.195	57/151	-0.02
Win prob over 80%	4	-0.016	25%	2.2	+0.221	—	0.09
Quarter Game state compare everyone →
Q1	18	+0.279	44%	7.1	+0.119	17/31	0.04
Q2	12	+0.677	67%	8.5	+0.208	10/63	-0.01
Q3	9	+0.071	33%	2.2	+0.200	—	-0.01
Q4	12	+0.076	50%	6.7	+0.223	35/51	-0.03
OT	0	—	—	—	+0.374	—	—
Two-minute Game state compare everyone →
Last 2 min of half	5	+0.393	80%	6.0	+0.159	—	0.10
Rest of game	46	+0.277	46%	6.5	+0.199	74/165	0.10
Down Situation compare everyone →
1st down	15	+0.132	47%	7.0	+0.227	56/78	0.00
2nd down	18	-0.142	33%	5.3	+0.189	68/81	0.02
3rd down	16	+0.927	69%	7.8	+0.134	5/50	-0.02
4th down	2	+0.212	50%	2.0	+0.374	—	—
3rd-down distance Situation compare everyone →
3rd & 1–3	2	+0.469	50%	12.5	+0.163	—	—
3rd & 4–6	9	+0.525	67%	4.7	+0.221	—	-0.27
3rd & 7+	5	+1.834	80%	11.6	+0.081	—	0.02
Field position Situation compare everyone →
Own 20 and in	2	-1.178	0%	0.0	+0.147	—	-0.04
Own 50–21	23	+0.382	52%	9.3	+0.162	34/115	0.04
Opp 21–49	20	+0.252	45%	4.0	+0.238	32/59	0.06
Red zone (opp 20 in)	6	+0.537	67%	5.8	+0.228	—	0.05
Formation Style compare everyone →
Shotgun	45	+0.285	49%	6.2	+0.173	61/161	-0.02
Under center	6	+0.313	50%	8.3	+0.273	—	-0.02
Tempo Style compare everyone →
Huddle	50	+0.309	50%	6.6	+0.195	61/166	-0.00
No huddle	1	-0.746	0%	0.0	+0.169	—	-0.00
Yards to go Situation compare everyone →
1–3 to go	3	+1.297	67%	9.7	+0.250	—	0.05
4–6 to go	10	+0.483	70%	4.6	+0.240	—	0.02
7–10 to go	26	+0.332	50%	6.8	+0.208	53/144	0.03
11+ to go	12	-0.223	25%	6.4	+0.055	10/11	-0.07
Pass depth Passing compare everyone →
Behind the line	2	-0.394	50%	2.5	-0.209	—	0.15
Short (0–9)	29	+0.634	59%	5.9	+0.162	7/116	0.09
Intermediate (10–19)	9	+0.281	56%	9.9	+0.464	—	0.07
Deep (20+)	11	-0.494	18%	5.9	+0.446	—	0.01
Pass direction Passing compare everyone →
Left	20	-0.265	35%	3.4	+0.147	76/84	0.04
Middle	11	+0.793	64%	9.3	+0.321	—	-0.02
Right	20	+0.564	55%	8.0	+0.168	15/102	0.03
Play action Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Play action	10	+0.654	60%	11.5	+0.287	—	-0.03
No play action	41	+0.199	46%	5.2	+0.166	75/160	-0.03
In / out of pocket Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
In pocket	48	+0.389	50%	6.7	+0.187	41/163	-0.05
Out of pocket	3	-1.322	33%	3.0	+0.231	—	-0.05
Blitz Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Blitzed	16	+0.782	62%	7.3	+0.190	9/70	0.08
No blitz	35	+0.062	43%	6.1	+0.194	97/160	0.08
Pass rushers Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
3 or fewer rushers	0	—	—	—	+0.106	—	—
4 rushers	35	+0.062	43%	6.1	+0.198	95/157	0.12
5 rushers	10	+0.664	60%	6.1	+0.186	—	0.15
6+ rushers	6	+0.978	67%	9.3	+0.199	—	—
Defenders in the box Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Light box (6 or fewer)	35	+0.143	49%	6.5	+0.172	84/151	-0.04
7 in the box	14	+0.737	57%	7.4	+0.214	5/53	-0.05
Stacked box (8+)	2	-0.311	0%	0.0	+0.313	—	—
Screen Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Screen	1	-0.020	0%	9.0	-0.084	—	0.50
Not a screen	50	+0.294	50%	6.4	+0.223	62/166	0.50
Pre-snap motion Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Motion	34	+0.466	59%	6.3	+0.204	30/140	0.10
No motion	17	-0.067	29%	6.9	+0.179	79/97	0.10
RPO Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
RPO	1	+1.666	100%	18.0	-0.104	—	—
Not an RPO	50	+0.260	48%	6.2	+0.200	66/166	—

By season

Season	Team	Targets	EPA/play	Total EPA	Success	Yds/play	Catch rate	aDOT	YAC/catch
2026	IND	51	+0.288	+14.7	49.0%	6.47	58.8%	10.4	3.4

Definitions

QB plays are dropbacks: passes, sacks and scrambles (spikes left out). A receiver's fumble after the catch isn't charged to the QB. Rushing counts designed runs only. Receiving is EPA per target. EPA swings about ±1.4 points a play, so a 50-play split carries about ±0.2 of luck.