Dalton Kincaid

TE · BUF · ESPN · Pro Football Reference

Box score by season

Season	Team	G	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	vs ESPN
2026	BUF	7	35	27	401	2	✓ matches
2025	BUF	12	49	39	571	5	✓ matches
2025 playoffs	BUF	2	11	9	111	2
2024	BUF	13	75	44	448	2	not checked
2024 playoffs	BUF	3	9	6	71	0
2023	BUF	16	91	73	673	2	not checked
2023 playoffs	BUF	2	11	8	104	1

Official scoring from play-by-play. Regular-season totals for 2025, 2026 are compared with ESPN's after every rebuild (all players); earlier seasons aren't checked.

Advanced

Targets

qualifying bar 17

EPA/play

+0.465

27th of 166 · lg +0.193

Success rate

57.1%

36th of 166 · lg 49.8%

Yards/play

11.46

6th of 166 · lg 7.42

Explosive rate

22.9%

5th of 166 · lg 9.1%

Catch rate

77.1%

30th of 166 · lg 67.3%

Air yards/att

10.1

66th of 166 · lg 7.9

Turnover rate

2.9%

88th of 166 · lg 2.7%

TD rate

5.7%

59th of 166 · lg 4.8%

Every split

EPA per target by situation, next to the league. Rank is among qualified players with 12+ targets there (1 = best). "Repeats" is the year-to-year correlation for that split (2016–25); near zero means it predicts little. Click a situation to filter to it.

Situation	Targets	EPA/play	Success	Yds/play	League EPA	Rank	Repeats
Home / away Setting compare everyone →
Home	19	+0.556	63%	11.9	+0.197	25/116	-0.02
Away	16	+0.357	50%	10.9	+0.190	39/116	-0.03
Neutral site	0	—	—	—	+0.183	—	—
Rest days Setting compare everyone →
Short week (≤5 days)	8	+0.899	75%	11.9	+0.265	—	0.19
Normal (6–8 days)	12	-0.274	42%	4.3	+0.174	139/151	-0.01
Extra rest (9–12 days)	3	-0.570	33%	12.7	+0.270	—	0.21
Off a bye (13+ days)	6	+1.074	67%	14.3	+0.271	—	—
Indoors / outdoors Weather compare everyone →
Indoors	16	+0.357	50%	10.9	+0.206	21/56	0.05
Outdoors	19	+0.556	63%	11.9	+0.187	18/137	0.05
Temperature (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
60–79°F	13	+0.316	62%	10.8	+0.210	23/54	-0.02
80°F+	0	—	—	—	+0.213	—	0.01
Wind (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
0–9 mph	8	+0.899	75%	11.9	+0.215	—	-0.09
10–14 mph	5	-0.615	40%	9.0	+0.200	—	0.05
Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
Dry	19	+0.556	63%	11.9	+0.203	21/129	0.03
Rain or snow	0	—	—	—	+0.015	—	0.03
Score Game state compare everyone →
Trailing 9+	1	+1.068	100%	14.0	+0.189	—	-0.01
Trailing 1–8	11	+0.092	36%	11.1	+0.180	—	0.07
Tied	7	-0.062	43%	5.0	+0.186	—	0.02
Leading 1–8	6	+0.810	83%	16.2	+0.202	—	-0.03
Leading 9+	10	+0.976	70%	13.3	+0.243	—	-0.05
Win probability Game state compare everyone →
Win prob under 20%	0	—	—	—	+0.169	—	-0.05
Win prob 20–80%	25	+0.260	52%	10.7	+0.195	65/151	-0.02
Win prob over 80%	10	+0.976	70%	13.3	+0.221	—	0.09
Quarter Game state compare everyone →
Q1	11	+0.082	36%	5.8	+0.119	—	0.04
Q2	9	+0.626	67%	11.0	+0.208	—	-0.01
Q3	6	-0.303	50%	11.0	+0.200	—	-0.01
Q4	9	+1.284	78%	19.1	+0.223	—	-0.03
OT	0	—	—	—	+0.374	—	—
Two-minute Game state compare everyone →
Last 2 min of half	5	+0.479	80%	12.2	+0.159	—	0.10
Rest of game	30	+0.463	53%	11.3	+0.199	34/165	0.10
Down Situation compare everyone →
1st down	12	+0.801	75%	16.1	+0.227	3/78	0.00
2nd down	17	+0.411	53%	8.0	+0.189	25/81	0.02
3rd down	6	-0.055	33%	12.0	+0.134	—	-0.02
4th down	0	—	—	—	+0.374	—	—
3rd-down distance Situation compare everyone →
3rd & 1–3	1	-1.170	0%	1.0	+0.163	—	—
3rd & 4–6	3	+1.258	67%	15.7	+0.221	—	-0.27
3rd & 7+	2	-1.466	0%	12.0	+0.081	—	0.02
Field position Situation compare everyone →
Own 20 and in	3	+0.731	100%	17.0	+0.147	—	-0.04
Own 50–21	16	+0.689	62%	13.6	+0.162	7/115	0.04
Opp 21–49	10	+0.220	50%	10.6	+0.238	—	0.06
Red zone (opp 20 in)	6	+0.141	33%	4.5	+0.228	—	0.05
Formation Style compare everyone →
Shotgun	25	+0.125	44%	7.9	+0.173	91/161	-0.02
Under center	10	+1.315	90%	20.3	+0.273	—	-0.02
Tempo Style compare everyone →
Huddle	34	+0.513	59%	11.8	+0.195	23/166	-0.00
No huddle	1	-1.170	0%	1.0	+0.169	—	-0.00
Yards to go Situation compare everyone →
1–3 to go	3	+0.359	33%	8.0	+0.250	—	0.05
4–6 to go	6	+0.972	67%	13.5	+0.240	—	0.02
7–10 to go	22	+0.229	59%	10.9	+0.208	70/144	0.03
11+ to go	4	+1.080	50%	14.0	+0.055	—	-0.07
Pass depth Passing compare everyone →
Behind the line	4	-0.027	50%	6.2	-0.209	—	0.15
Short (0–9)	14	+0.056	50%	5.1	+0.162	77/116	0.09
Intermediate (10–19)	12	+0.435	58%	13.7	+0.464	29/42	0.07
Deep (20+)	5	+2.076	80%	28.2	+0.446	—	0.01
Pass direction Passing compare everyone →
Left	12	+0.632	75%	11.4	+0.147	9/84	0.04
Middle	12	+0.426	58%	11.0	+0.321	20/35	-0.02
Right	11	+0.325	36%	12.0	+0.168	—	0.03
Play action Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Play action	6	+1.385	100%	21.8	+0.287	—	-0.03
No play action	29	+0.275	48%	9.3	+0.166	59/160	-0.03
In / out of pocket Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
In pocket	29	+0.378	52%	9.9	+0.187	42/163	-0.05
Out of pocket	6	+0.885	83%	19.2	+0.231	—	-0.05
Blitz Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Blitzed	13	+0.286	62%	11.1	+0.190	33/70	0.08
No blitz	22	+0.571	55%	11.7	+0.194	20/160	0.08
Pass rushers Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
3 or fewer rushers	4	+0.548	50%	9.8	+0.106	—	—
4 rushers	18	+0.576	56%	12.1	+0.198	21/157	0.12
5 rushers	8	+0.611	62%	15.5	+0.186	—	0.15
6+ rushers	5	-0.235	60%	4.0	+0.199	—	—
Defenders in the box Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Light box (6 or fewer)	21	-0.032	43%	6.6	+0.172	116/151	-0.04
7 in the box	10	+1.295	80%	17.9	+0.214	—	-0.05
Stacked box (8+)	4	+1.000	75%	21.0	+0.313	—	—
Screen Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Screen	3	-0.381	33%	3.7	-0.084	—	0.50
Not a screen	32	+0.544	59%	12.2	+0.223	25/166	0.50
Pre-snap motion Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Motion	24	+0.633	62%	10.3	+0.204	14/140	0.10
No motion	11	+0.099	45%	13.9	+0.179	—	0.10
RPO Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
RPO	3	-0.541	33%	2.7	-0.104	—	—
Not an RPO	32	+0.559	59%	12.3	+0.200	16/166	—

By season

Season	Team	Targets	EPA/play	Total EPA	Success	Yds/play	Catch rate	aDOT	YAC/catch
2026	BUF	35	+0.465	+16.3	57.1%	11.46	77.1%	10.1	5.6

Definitions

QB plays are dropbacks: passes, sacks and scrambles (spikes left out). A receiver's fumble after the catch isn't charged to the QB. Rushing counts designed runs only. Receiving is EPA per target. EPA swings about ±1.4 points a play, so a 50-play split carries about ±0.2 of luck.