Justin Jefferson

WR · MIN · ESPN · Pro Football Reference

Box score by season

Season	Team	G	Cmp	Att	Pass yds	Rush	Rush yds	TD	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	vs ESPN
2026	MIN	6	0	0	0	1	-11	0	40	28	335	4	✓ matches
2025	MIN	17	0	0	0	2	7	0	141	84	1,048	2	✓ matches
2024	MIN	17	1	1	22	1	3	0	154	103	1,533	10	not checked
2024 playoffs	MIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	58	0
2023	MIN	10	0	1	0	1	-12	0	100	68	1,074	5	not checked
2022	MIN	17	2	2	34	4	24	1	184	128	1,809	8	not checked
2022 playoffs	MIN	1	1	1	-2	0	0	0	9	7	47	0
2021	MIN	17	2	4	35	6	14	0	167	108	1,616	10	not checked
2020	MIN	16	0	0	0	1	2	0	125	88	1,400	7	not checked

Official scoring from play-by-play. Regular-season totals for 2025, 2026 are compared with ESPN's after every rebuild (all players); earlier seasons aren't checked.

Advanced

Targets

141

qualifying bar 32

EPA/play

-0.091

177th of 197 · lg +0.191

Success rate

49.6%

104th of 197 · lg 50.0%

Yards/play

7.43

90th of 197 · lg 7.37

Explosive rate

8.5%

105th of 197 · lg 9.4%

Catch rate

59.6%

158th of 197 · lg 67.5%

Air yards/att

10.2

71st of 197 · lg 7.9

Turnover rate

7.1%

188th of 197 · lg 2.6%

TD rate

1.4%

173rd of 197 · lg 4.9%

Notable in 2025

His biggest gaps between one situation and the rest of his plays, beyond the league's own gap there (|z| ≥ 2.5). Many splits get checked, so some of these are luck; the badge says whether that kind of split repeats year to year.

+0.64 EPA/target in the 1st quarter vs -0.30 the rest of the time (31 vs 110; league gap +0.01; z +2.9) mostly noise · r 0.04
+0.62 EPA/target on 11+ to go vs -0.24 the rest of the time (24 vs 117; league gap -0.13; z +2.8) mostly noise · r -0.07
+0.72 EPA/target with home / away: Neutral site vs -0.24 the rest of the time (22 vs 119; league gap +0.03; z +2.6)

Every split

EPA per target by situation, next to the league. Rank is among qualified players with 12+ targets there (1 = best). "Repeats" is the year-to-year correlation for that split (2016–25); near zero means it predicts little. Click a situation to filter to it.

Situation	Targets	EPA/play	Success	Yds/play	League EPA	Rank	Repeats
Home / away Setting compare everyone →
Home	64	-0.189	50%	7.4	+0.199	178/193	-0.02
Away	55	-0.301	44%	5.9	+0.181	176/193	-0.03
Neutral site	22	+0.716	64%	11.3	+0.222	1/4	—
Rest days Setting compare everyone →
Short week (≤5 days)	16	-0.103	50%	6.5	+0.229	21/25	0.19
Normal (6–8 days)	88	-0.068	49%	7.6	+0.182	172/197	-0.01
Extra rest (9–12 days)	20	+0.255	55%	7.4	+0.220	14/25	0.21
Off a bye (13+ days)	10	-0.362	50%	7.9	+0.216	—	—
Indoors / outdoors Weather compare everyone →
Indoors	92	-0.222	47%	6.7	+0.180	102/118	0.05
Outdoors	49	+0.153	55%	8.8	+0.197	105/192	0.05
Temperature (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
Under 40°F	0	—	—	—	+0.172	—	0.05
40–59°F	20	-0.075	50%	6.8	+0.172	69/87	-0.05
60–79°F	29	+0.310	59%	10.1	+0.241	50/110	-0.02
80°F+	0	—	—	—	+0.171	—	0.01
Wind (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
0–9 mph	24	-0.290	46%	7.2	+0.216	167/177	-0.09
10–14 mph	17	+0.362	65%	10.1	+0.170	17/45	0.05
15+ mph	8	+1.039	62%	10.6	+0.105	—	-0.05
Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
Dry	49	+0.153	55%	8.8	+0.199	102/188	0.03
Rain or snow	0	—	—	—	+0.157	—	0.03
Score Game state compare everyone →
Trailing 9+	39	-0.422	41%	6.5	+0.095	105/109	-0.01
Trailing 1–8	37	-0.273	49%	8.2	+0.227	144/153	0.07
Tied	33	+0.375	64%	8.5	+0.144	24/95	0.02
Leading 1–8	21	-0.196	33%	5.3	+0.239	79/92	-0.03
Leading 9+	11	+0.492	73%	9.2	+0.316	—	-0.05
Win probability Game state compare everyone →
Win prob under 20%	36	-0.498	42%	5.9	+0.092	103/109	-0.05
Win prob 20–80%	90	+0.007	51%	8.0	+0.203	146/195	-0.02
Win prob over 80%	15	+0.294	60%	7.5	+0.295	37/64	0.09
Quarter Game state compare everyone →
Q1	31	+0.636	74%	9.5	+0.197	23/113	0.04
Q2	51	-0.005	45%	8.0	+0.199	113/150	-0.01
Q3	25	-0.787	36%	4.3	+0.214	119/120	-0.01
Q4	34	-0.372	44%	7.0	+0.156	143/150	-0.03
OT	0	—	—	—	+0.394	—	—
Two-minute Game state compare everyone →
Last 2 min of half	17	+0.609	59%	13.2	+0.183	9/64	0.10
Rest of game	124	-0.187	48%	6.6	+0.192	183/197	0.10
Down Situation compare everyone →
1st down	61	-0.030	51%	6.9	+0.209	147/176	0.00
2nd down	42	+0.105	55%	8.4	+0.198	119/178	0.02
3rd down	36	-0.252	44%	7.6	+0.131	115/142	-0.02
4th down	2	-3.189	0%	0.0	+0.400	—	—
3rd-down distance Situation compare everyone →
3rd & 1–3	3	-2.656	0%	0.0	+0.088	—	—
3rd & 4–6	10	-0.308	50%	7.4	+0.200	—	-0.27
3rd & 7+	23	+0.087	48%	8.7	+0.110	34/61	0.02
Field position Situation compare everyone →
Own 20 and in	13	+0.510	62%	10.3	+0.190	4/23	-0.04
Own 50–21	70	-0.116	56%	8.8	+0.188	162/193	0.04
Opp 21–49	40	-0.132	48%	6.3	+0.217	140/162	0.06
Red zone (opp 20 in)	18	-0.339	22%	2.4	+0.140	54/62	0.05
Formation Style compare everyone →
Shotgun	109	-0.110	46%	7.1	+0.165	167/196	-0.02
Under center	32	-0.029	62%	8.5	+0.311	61/71	-0.02
Tempo Style compare everyone →
Huddle	125	-0.045	50%	7.5	+0.194	166/197	-0.00
No huddle	16	-0.454	50%	6.8	+0.168	37/37	-0.00
Yards to go Situation compare everyone →
1–3 to go	12	-0.978	17%	3.3	+0.202	29/29	0.05
4–6 to go	23	-0.277	61%	7.8	+0.234	63/73	0.02
7–10 to go	82	-0.118	50%	6.8	+0.203	181/197	0.03
11+ to go	24	+0.621	54%	11.4	+0.081	11/61	-0.07
Pass depth Passing compare everyone →
Behind the line	20	-0.114	55%	4.6	-0.156	38/69	0.15
Short (0–9)	54	-0.218	44%	5.9	+0.141	170/189	0.09
Intermediate (10–19)	46	+0.226	65%	10.3	+0.435	85/111	0.07
Deep (20+)	21	-0.438	24%	7.6	+0.472	54/55	0.01
Pass direction Passing compare everyone →
Left	50	+0.086	52%	7.4	+0.177	119/187	0.04
Middle	28	+0.121	68%	13.0	+0.283	72/108	-0.02
Right	63	-0.326	40%	5.0	+0.155	171/185	0.03
Play action Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Play action	31	-0.038	65%	9.2	+0.299	90/110	-0.03
No play action	110	-0.107	45%	6.9	+0.160	168/196	-0.03
In / out of pocket Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
In pocket	130	-0.109	50%	7.4	+0.192	175/197	-0.05
Out of pocket	11	+0.120	45%	7.4	+0.183	—	-0.05
Blitz Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Blitzed	39	-0.474	44%	7.4	+0.232	139/145	0.08
No blitz	102	+0.055	52%	7.5	+0.174	138/197	0.08
Pass rushers Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
3 or fewer rushers	4	-1.078	25%	0.5	+0.254	—	—
4 rushers	96	+0.094	53%	7.8	+0.169	126/197	0.12
5 rushers	33	-0.018	52%	8.5	+0.235	74/103	0.15
6+ rushers	8	-2.131	12%	2.1	+0.254	—	—
Defenders in the box Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Light box (6 or fewer)	104	-0.064	50%	7.9	+0.175	163/196	-0.04
7 in the box	28	-0.152	46%	6.2	+0.240	85/98	-0.05
Stacked box (8+)	9	-0.221	56%	6.0	+0.242	—	—
Screen Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Screen	14	+0.419	64%	6.0	-0.032	2/33	0.50
Not a screen	127	-0.148	48%	7.6	+0.213	183/197	0.50
Pre-snap motion Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Motion	66	-0.345	47%	6.2	+0.214	187/193	0.10
No motion	75	+0.132	52%	8.5	+0.163	103/191	0.10
RPO Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
RPO	6	+0.244	67%	6.3	+0.091	—	—
Not an RPO	135	-0.106	49%	7.5	+0.193	178/197	—
Pressure Defense (NGS) compare everyone →
Clean pocket	110	-0.001	51%	7.6	+0.256	171/197	0.01
Pressured	31	-0.413	45%	6.9	-0.046	99/116	0.01
Man / zone Defense (NGS) compare everyone →
Man	38	-0.573	34%	4.3	+0.211	148/151	0.03
Zone	103	+0.086	55%	8.6	+0.181	131/197	0.03
Coverage shell Defense (NGS) compare everyone →
Cover 0	6	-2.436	17%	1.2	+0.266	—	—
Cover 1	29	-0.229	38%	4.8	+0.200	99/112	0.03
2-Man	3	-0.169	33%	5.7	+0.220	—	—
Cover 2	33	+0.056	55%	9.8	+0.137	77/127	-0.09
Cover 3	48	+0.320	67%	9.9	+0.216	67/149	0.02
Cover 4	15	-0.132	33%	4.1	+0.210	23/26	-0.08
Cover 6	5	-1.099	40%	5.2	+0.142	—	—
Cover 9	2	-0.438	0%	0.0	+0.159	—	—
Combo	0	—	—	—	+0.206	—	—
Blown coverage	0	—	—	—	+0.447	—	—
Offensive personnel Scheme (NGS) compare everyone →
11	86	-0.129	50%	8.0	+0.188	176/193	0.05
12	36	-0.284	50%	5.5	+0.194	86/98	0.04
21	0	—	—	—	+0.110	—	-0.17
13	3	+0.043	33%	3.3	+0.263	—	—
22	0	—	—	—	-0.103	—	—
10	0	—	—	—	+0.236	—	—
Other	16	+0.519	50%	9.7	+0.192	1/3	—

By season

Season	Team	Targets	EPA/play	Total EPA	Success	Yds/play	Catch rate	aDOT	YAC/catch
2025	MIN	141	-0.091	-12.9	49.6%	7.43	59.6%	10.2	5.4

Definitions

QB plays are dropbacks: passes, sacks and scrambles (spikes left out). A receiver's fumble after the catch isn't charged to the QB. Rushing counts designed runs only. Receiving is EPA per target. EPA swings about ±1.4 points a play, so a 50-play split carries about ±0.2 of luck.