Justin Jefferson

WR · MIN · ESPN · Pro Football Reference

Box score by season

Season	Team	G	Cmp	Att	Pass yds	Rush	Rush yds	TD	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	vs ESPN
2026	MIN	6	0	0	0	1	-11	0	40	28	335	4	✓ matches
2025	MIN	17	0	0	0	2	7	0	141	84	1,048	2	✓ matches
2024	MIN	17	1	1	22	1	3	0	154	103	1,533	10	not checked
2024 playoffs	MIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	5	58	0
2023	MIN	10	0	1	0	1	-12	0	100	68	1,074	5	not checked
2022	MIN	17	2	2	34	4	24	1	184	128	1,809	8	not checked
2022 playoffs	MIN	1	1	1	-2	0	0	0	9	7	47	0
2021	MIN	17	2	4	35	6	14	0	167	108	1,616	10	not checked
2020	MIN	16	0	0	0	1	2	0	125	88	1,400	7	not checked

Official scoring from play-by-play. Regular-season totals for 2025, 2026 are compared with ESPN's after every rebuild (all players); earlier seasons aren't checked.

Advanced

Targets

qualifying bar 17

EPA/play

+0.518

22nd of 166 · lg +0.193

Success rate

52.5%

69th of 166 · lg 49.8%

Yards/play

8.38

49th of 166 · lg 7.42

Explosive rate

12.5%

47th of 166 · lg 9.1%

Catch rate

70.0%

69th of 166 · lg 67.3%

Air yards/att

9.9

69th of 166 · lg 7.9

Turnover rate

0.0%

1st of 166 · lg 2.7%

TD rate

10.0%

19th of 166 · lg 4.8%

Every split

EPA per target by situation, next to the league. Rank is among qualified players with 12+ targets there (1 = best). "Repeats" is the year-to-year correlation for that split (2016–25); near zero means it predicts little. Click a situation to filter to it.

Situation	Targets	EPA/play	Success	Yds/play	League EPA	Rank	Repeats
Home / away Setting compare everyone →
Home	16	+0.785	56%	8.5	+0.197	7/116	-0.02
Away	24	+0.339	50%	8.3	+0.190	45/116	-0.03
Neutral site	0	—	—	—	+0.183	—	—
Rest days Setting compare everyone →
Short week (≤5 days)	0	—	—	—	+0.265	—	0.19
Normal (6–8 days)	24	+0.339	50%	8.3	+0.174	46/151	-0.01
Extra rest (9–12 days)	0	—	—	—	+0.270	—	0.21
Off a bye (13+ days)	7	+0.160	43%	6.3	+0.271	—	—
Indoors / outdoors Weather compare everyone →
Indoors	32	+0.546	56%	7.8	+0.206	12/56	0.05
Outdoors	8	+0.403	38%	10.9	+0.187	—	0.05
Temperature (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
60–79°F	6	+0.249	33%	9.2	+0.210	—	-0.02
80°F+	2	+0.863	50%	16.0	+0.213	—	0.01
Wind (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
0–9 mph	8	+0.403	38%	10.9	+0.215	—	-0.09
10–14 mph	0	—	—	—	+0.200	—	0.05
Rain or snow (outdoors) Weather compare everyone →
Dry	2	+0.863	50%	16.0	+0.203	—	0.03
Rain or snow	6	+0.249	33%	9.2	+0.015	—	0.03
Score Game state compare everyone →
Trailing 9+	5	+1.463	60%	13.4	+0.189	—	-0.01
Trailing 1–8	18	+0.378	56%	6.4	+0.180	20/63	0.07
Tied	6	+0.635	50%	13.0	+0.186	—	0.02
Leading 1–8	10	-0.017	40%	6.5	+0.202	—	-0.03
Leading 9+	1	+2.945	100%	9.0	+0.243	—	-0.05
Win probability Game state compare everyone →
Win prob under 20%	1	+3.117	100%	17.0	+0.169	—	-0.05
Win prob 20–80%	37	+0.408	51%	8.1	+0.195	43/151	-0.02
Win prob over 80%	2	+1.251	50%	8.5	+0.221	—	0.09
Quarter Game state compare everyone →
Q1	15	+0.292	40%	7.9	+0.119	15/31	0.04
Q2	17	+0.663	65%	9.9	+0.208	13/63	-0.01
Q3	2	+1.231	50%	7.5	+0.200	—	-0.01
Q4	6	+0.433	50%	5.3	+0.223	—	-0.03
OT	0	—	—	—	+0.374	—	—
Two-minute Game state compare everyone →
Last 2 min of half	3	+0.531	67%	13.7	+0.159	—	0.10
Rest of game	37	+0.517	51%	7.9	+0.199	24/165	0.10
Down Situation compare everyone →
1st down	10	+0.487	60%	8.3	+0.227	—	0.00
2nd down	12	+0.159	42%	7.9	+0.189	50/81	0.02
3rd down	18	+0.774	56%	8.7	+0.134	7/50	-0.02
4th down	0	—	—	—	+0.374	—	—
3rd-down distance Situation compare everyone →
3rd & 1–3	2	+1.628	100%	20.0	+0.163	—	—
3rd & 4–6	8	+1.213	75%	8.1	+0.221	—	-0.27
3rd & 7+	8	+0.120	25%	6.5	+0.081	—	0.02
Field position Situation compare everyone →
Own 20 and in	7	+0.647	57%	8.9	+0.147	—	-0.04
Own 50–21	15	+0.340	47%	9.2	+0.162	40/115	0.04
Opp 21–49	11	+0.428	45%	8.9	+0.238	—	0.06
Red zone (opp 20 in)	7	+0.910	71%	5.3	+0.228	—	0.05
Formation Style compare everyone →
Shotgun	31	+0.523	48%	8.7	+0.173	20/161	-0.02
Under center	9	+0.498	67%	7.2	+0.273	—	-0.02
Tempo Style compare everyone →
Huddle	36	+0.385	50%	7.7	+0.195	47/166	-0.00
No huddle	4	+1.708	75%	14.2	+0.169	—	-0.00
Yards to go Situation compare everyone →
1–3 to go	5	+1.239	100%	15.8	+0.250	—	0.05
4–6 to go	10	+0.831	60%	6.7	+0.240	—	0.02
7–10 to go	17	+0.461	47%	8.4	+0.208	34/144	0.03
11+ to go	8	-0.204	25%	5.9	+0.055	—	-0.07
Pass depth Passing compare everyone →
Behind the line	8	+0.378	62%	6.8	-0.209	—	0.15
Short (0–9)	12	+0.358	50%	5.9	+0.162	31/116	0.09
Intermediate (10–19)	16	+0.408	44%	7.4	+0.464	31/42	0.07
Deep (20+)	4	+1.713	75%	22.8	+0.446	—	0.01
Pass direction Passing compare everyone →
Left	19	+0.271	42%	7.9	+0.147	30/84	0.04
Middle	5	+1.153	60%	12.8	+0.321	—	-0.02
Right	16	+0.612	62%	7.5	+0.168	13/102	0.03
Play action Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Play action	14	+0.813	71%	9.9	+0.287	3/31	-0.03
No play action	26	+0.359	42%	7.6	+0.166	43/160	-0.03
In / out of pocket Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
In pocket	36	+0.657	56%	9.1	+0.187	9/163	-0.05
Out of pocket	4	-0.736	25%	1.8	+0.231	—	-0.05
Blitz Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Blitzed	13	+0.860	69%	9.5	+0.190	6/70	0.08
No blitz	27	+0.353	44%	7.8	+0.194	48/160	0.08
Pass rushers Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
3 or fewer rushers	3	+1.042	67%	14.3	+0.106	—	—
4 rushers	23	+0.279	43%	7.1	+0.198	64/157	0.12
5 rushers	8	+0.379	62%	7.2	+0.186	—	0.15
6+ rushers	5	+1.629	80%	13.2	+0.199	—	—
Defenders in the box Defense (FTN) compare everyone →
Light box (6 or fewer)	25	+0.338	44%	7.5	+0.172	46/151	-0.04
7 in the box	10	+0.718	70%	10.7	+0.214	—	-0.05
Stacked box (8+)	5	+1.014	60%	8.0	+0.313	—	—
Screen Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Screen	6	-0.165	33%	5.5	-0.084	—	0.50
Not a screen	34	+0.638	56%	8.9	+0.223	14/166	0.50
Pre-snap motion Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
Motion	16	+0.140	44%	7.3	+0.204	87/140	0.10
No motion	24	+0.769	58%	9.1	+0.179	5/97	0.10
RPO Scheme (FTN) compare everyone →
RPO	2	-0.000	50%	0.5	-0.104	—	—
Not an RPO	38	+0.545	53%	8.8	+0.200	19/166	—

By season

Season	Team	Targets	EPA/play	Total EPA	Success	Yds/play	Catch rate	aDOT	YAC/catch
2026	MIN	40	+0.518	+20.7	52.5%	8.38	70.0%	9.9	3.5

Definitions

QB plays are dropbacks: passes, sacks and scrambles (spikes left out). A receiver's fumble after the catch isn't charged to the QB. Rushing counts designed runs only. Receiving is EPA per target. EPA swings about ±1.4 points a play, so a 50-play split carries about ±0.2 of luck.