Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tyler Shough — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.022
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.018
Dropbacks
288
Turnover EPA
-44.7
WPA
+0.33
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 61 | -0.042 | -0.016 | -0.026 | -2.6 | 2 / 1 | -14.8 | 5 | -10.5 | -0.30 | -1.2 |
| 2 | BAL | 37 | +0.259 | +0.295 | -0.036 | +9.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.50 | +14.1 |
| 3 | LV | 44 | -0.148 | -0.082 | -0.066 | -6.5 | 1 / 2 | -16.9 | 2 | -10.3 | -0.14 | +4.4 |
| 4 | ATL | 50 | +0.074 | +0.013 | +0.061 | +3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.6 | -0.02 | -0.2 |
| 5 | MIN | 26 | -0.333 | -0.459 | +0.125 | -8.7 | 2 / 0 | -6.9 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.16 | -8.0 |
| 6 | NYG | 30 | -0.025 | -0.017 | -0.008 | -0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | -17.2 |
| 7 | PIT | 40 | +0.286 | +0.264 | +0.022 | +11.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.30 | +3.3 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.