Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Cam Ward — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.090
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.074
Dropbacks
263
Turnover EPA
-30.9
WPA
-1.25
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 35 | -0.349 | -0.210 | -0.139 | -12.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.24 | +0.4 |
| 2 | PHI | 22 | +0.014 | -0.004 | +0.018 | +0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.07 | +6.5 |
| 3 | NYG | 36 | -0.198 | -0.180 | -0.018 | -7.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.36 | -0.1 |
| 4 | BAL | 33 | -0.032 | +0.013 | -0.045 | -1.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.21 | +6.8 |
| 5 | HOU | 40 | -0.362 | -0.423 | +0.061 | -14.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 4 | -7.7 | -0.35 | -2.4 |
| 6 | IND | 22 | -0.179 | -0.161 | -0.018 | -3.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | -20.1 |
| 7 | CLE | 32 | +0.256 | +0.183 | +0.073 | +8.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.10 | +1.6 |
| 8 | CIN | 43 | +0.155 | +0.203 | -0.048 | +6.7 | 0 / 1 | -6.3 | 2 | -8.0 | -0.20 | -1.0 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.