Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Drake Maye — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.218
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.214
Dropbacks
250
Turnover EPA
-43.8
WPA
+0.65
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 36 | -0.033 | -0.128 | +0.095 | -1.2 | 3 / 0 | -8.5 | 3 | -2.0 | -0.38 | +6.0 |
| 2 | PIT | 25 | -0.037 | -0.051 | +0.014 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -2.7 | -0.03 | +0.9 |
| 3 | JAX | 28 | -0.412 | -0.506 | +0.094 | -11.5 | 2 / 1 | -17.4 | 3 | -9.0 | -0.30 | +0.4 |
| 4 | BUF | 39 | +0.327 | +0.283 | +0.045 | +12.8 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 1 | -5.4 | +0.44 | +1.1 |
| 5 | LV | 35 | +0.802 | +0.842 | -0.040 | +28.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.37 | +22.6 |
| 6 | NYJ | 32 | +0.271 | +0.394 | -0.123 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | -1.9 |
| 7 | CHI | 32 | +0.392 | +0.370 | +0.022 | +12.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 2 | -4.5 | +0.18 | +15.3 |
| 8 | MIA | 23 | +0.260 | +0.380 | -0.119 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.23 | +14.0 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.