Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Bo Nix — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.012
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.011
Dropbacks
263
Turnover EPA
-16.2
WPA
+0.76
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 32 | -0.439 | -0.449 | +0.011 | -14.0 | 1 / 1 | -6.6 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.15 | -7.8 |
| 2 | JAX | 31 | +0.386 | +0.272 | +0.114 | +12.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.35 | +11.5 |
| 3 | LA | 37 | +0.006 | -0.029 | +0.035 | +0.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.15 | -11.4 |
| 4 | SF | 42 | +0.089 | +0.112 | -0.024 | +3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.09 | -4.0 |
| 5 | LAC | 28 | -0.182 | -0.233 | +0.050 | -5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.04 | -0.2 |
| 6 | SEA | 29 | -0.123 | -0.210 | +0.086 | -3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.12 | -0.9 |
| 7 | ARI | 30 | +0.051 | +0.151 | -0.100 | +1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.04 | -3.0 |
| 8 | KC | 34 | +0.250 | +0.216 | +0.034 | +8.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.52 | -3.6 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.