Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Trevor Lawrence — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.338
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.303
Dropbacks
237
Turnover EPA
-20.9
WPA
+1.88
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 24 | +0.886 | +0.793 | +0.093 | +21.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.23 | +22.3 |
| 2 | DEN | 31 | -0.056 | -0.133 | +0.077 | -1.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.04 | +0.9 |
| 3 | NE | 29 | +0.304 | +0.263 | +0.040 | +8.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.04 | +6.0 |
| 4 | CIN | 28 | +0.286 | +0.332 | -0.045 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.2 | +0.45 | +12.3 |
| 5 | PHI | 41 | +0.273 | +0.248 | +0.025 | +11.2 | 1 / 0 | -1.9 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.36 | -3.3 |
| 6 | HOU | 41 | +0.363 | +0.278 | +0.085 | +14.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.38 | -5.0 |
| 8 | IND | 17 | +0.354 | +0.358 | -0.005 | +6.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 3 | -9.7 | +0.08 | +10.2 |
| 9 | BAL | 26 | +0.447 | +0.476 | -0.029 | +11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | -5.4 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.