Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tyler Huntley — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.036
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.020
Dropbacks
122
Turnover EPA
-11.2
WPA
+0.05
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | TEN | 9 | -0.049 | +0.028 | -0.076 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | +8.4 |
| 5 | ATL | 36 | +0.156 | +0.094 | +0.062 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.04 | +6.4 |
| 6 | CLE | 34 | +0.209 | +0.137 | +0.072 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.08 | -1.3 |
| 7 | CIN | 38 | +0.038 | +0.091 | -0.053 | +1.4 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 4 | -7.3 | +0.13 | -1.8 |
| 8 | BUF | 5 | -1.851 | -1.862 | +0.010 | -9.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 1 | -5.1 | -0.19 | -17.5 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.