Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Daniel Jones — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.180
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.182
Dropbacks
289
Turnover EPA
-61.1
WPA
-1.06
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 33 | -0.344 | -0.291 | -0.053 | -11.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 2 | -5.3 | -0.23 | -5.1 |
| 2 | KC | 31 | +0.219 | +0.190 | +0.030 | +6.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.26 | +3.9 |
| 3 | HOU | 40 | -0.100 | -0.172 | +0.071 | -4.0 | 1 / 2 | -14.5 | 4 | -15.9 | -0.11 | -0.8 |
| 4 | WAS | 36 | -0.474 | -0.371 | -0.103 | -17.1 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 2 | -6.7 | -0.20 | -5.2 |
| 5 | PIT | 45 | +0.010 | -0.003 | +0.013 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.04 | -4.4 |
| 6 | TEN | 47 | -0.177 | -0.085 | -0.092 | -8.3 | 2 / 0 | -8.8 | 6 | -7.9 | -0.34 | -8.0 |
| 7 | MIN | 26 | -0.167 | -0.299 | +0.131 | -4.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 4 | -6.6 | -0.20 | -10.1 |
| 8 | JAX | 31 | -0.451 | -0.537 | +0.086 | -14.0 | 2 / 0 | -15.3 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.18 | -0.8 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.