Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
C.J. Beathard — 2023 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.072
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.077
Dropbacks
60
Turnover EPA
+0.0
WPA
-0.06
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HOU | 2 | +0.228 | +0.213 | +0.015 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +28.1 |
| 10 | SF | 2 | -0.491 | -0.549 | +0.058 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -25.2 |
| 13 | CIN | 12 | +0.068 | +0.076 | -0.008 | +0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.5 | -0.11 | +19.9 |
| 16 | TB | 17 | -0.076 | -0.047 | -0.029 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.01 | +7.2 |
| 17 | CAR | 27 | +0.196 | +0.192 | +0.004 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.05 | +8.5 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.