Game quality
How well each team played, beyond the score: EPA (expected points added) per play, adjusted for the opponent. A big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Deshaun Watson — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.040
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.016
Dropbacks
283
Turnover EPA
-22.6
WPA
+0.38
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 27 | -0.104 | -0.206 | +0.102 | -2.8 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 5 | -8.6 | -0.22 | +10.3 |
| 2 | TB | 32 | +0.374 | +0.324 | +0.049 | +12.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.43 | +6.4 |
| 3 | CAR | 33 | +0.028 | +0.077 | -0.049 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.23 | -13.7 |
| 4 | PIT | 35 | +0.285 | +0.262 | +0.023 | +10.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.27 | +3.8 |
| 5 | NYJ | 41 | -0.447 | -0.304 | -0.143 | -18.3 | 0 / 1 | -3.1 | 8 | -12.0 | -0.49 | -15.6 |
| 6 | BAL | 31 | -0.272 | -0.222 | -0.051 | -8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.4 | +0.00 | -0.8 |
| 7 | TEN | 37 | +0.040 | +0.124 | -0.084 | +1.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.37 | +6.9 |
| 8 | PIT | 47 | -0.128 | -0.136 | +0.008 | -6.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 8 | -14.6 | -0.22 | +3.0 |
How the ratings are built
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-11-07 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.